Today's Featured DFS site is DailyJoust. Click HERE to receive a first time deposit bonus!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Danger Zone - Pirates at Mets, Cubs at Nationals, Jays at Red Sox
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
NOTE: With both early games in weather trouble, I do not advise playing the 1 o'clock lock times at any sites. You won't have a lot of late lineup information, and that seems like an unnecessary risk to take given the weather issues of the two earliest games. As a result, only players in 4 o'clock and later games will be covered.
Catcher
Top Play
Buster Posey (SF) - Posey is an absolute stud when facing LHP, posting an incredible .379/.437/.688 line against southpaws since the beginning of 2011. Today he faces Paul Maholm who isn't that good at getting out RHB (.332 wOBA allowed).
Best Value Play
Salvador Perez (KC) - I'm really hoping that Ned Yost rearranges his lineup today to take into account Pettitte's extreme splits (bad against RHB, absolutely dominant against LHB) by putting Perez in the cleanup spot. Since 2010 Pettitte has allowed a .337 wOBA to RHB including 1.16 HR/9. Meanwhile, Perez has a whopping .418 wOBA against southpaws that comes with plenty of power (.245 ISO).
Value Plays
Chris Iannetta (LAA) - Iannetta hits towards the bottom of the order, but his price is so cheap on a lot of sites that I'll still consider using him. He has a good matchup today against Jose Quintana as Iannetta has a .238 ISO, 1.03 EYE and .374 wOBA against LHP in his last 195 plate appearances. Quintana isn't that good against RHB (.330 wOBA allowed), and playing in a park that strongly enhances RHP, Iannetta is a solid cheap option.
John Jaso (OAK) - The Athletics often have Jaso lead off against RHP, and I really like him as a safe option today if that is the case, particularly on sites whose scoring is weighted to reward individual performance. Jaso has an impressive .368 OBP against RHP the last few years, thanks to his patience (12.4 BB%). Facing Brandon Maurer, who has been absolutely dreadful against LHB, albeit in a small sample size (.470 wOBA, 3.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 3 HR/9 in 12 IP), Jaso looks to have a good chance of reaching base multiple times and scoring a run or two.
I also like the Detroit catchers, Alex Avila and Victor Martinez, as I did yesterday; they once again have a favorable matchup going against Ubaldo Jimenez.
First Base
Top Play
Joey Votto (CIN) - I wrote yesterday in just a mediocre matchup against Yovani Gallardo that I really liked Votto due to his awesome numbers at home against RHP. Well, that is the same case today except the opposing pitcher is much worse: Hiram Burgo. ZIPS has Burgos projected for a rest of season ERA of 5.63. He has shown no ability to get LHB out, although he has not faced a ton. Finally, Burgos is also very FB risky (50% FB rate) pitching in Cincinnati which is a HR hitter's paradise.
Other top plays include Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols.
Best Value Play
Brandon Moss (OAK) - I love this play because Moss is a huge splits guy facing a pitcher, Brandon Maurer, who has shown some extreme splits of his own so far. Since the beginning of last year, Moss has a .400 wOBA against RHP with a ton of power (.299 ISO). Maurer has yielded 4 HR in 12 IP to LHB and a whopping .479 wOBA backed by terrible peripherals (3.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 50% FB rate).
Value Plays
Billy Butler (KC) - Butler is underpriced on a lot of sites for a matchup against a LHP. Pettitte, as I stated in Perez's blurb, has been very poor against RHB. Butler on the other hand dominates LHP to the tune of .941 OPS in his last 392 plate appearances with a very solid EYE of .90 that shows he truly sees LHP well.
Paul Konerko (CHW) - Konerko does not have negative splits against same handed pitching (.294/.367/.494 line since 2011), and that's perfect for a home matchup (US Cellular enhances RH power) against Jerome Williams, a RHP with reverse splits (.337 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9 allowed to RHB).
Second Base
The top plays today are the two obvious ones: Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano. I prefer Kinsler to Cano today because he has a better matchup (kills LHP, facing Erik Bedard) and is in a better park for offense
Best Value Play
Howie Kendrick (LAA) - Kendrick is hitting in a favorable hitter's park in Chicago, especially compared to his home park. Kendrick is a much better hitter against LHP than he is against RHP. Since 2011 he has a .311 BA with solid power for a MI (.185 ISO) against southpaws. Quintana has yielded a high wOBA (.330) and LD rate (21.5%) to RHB which points towards a solid day for Kendrick.
I really do not see a lot of value at 2B today so I will likely play Kendrick in most places. Other options I am considering are Chase Utley against a RHP in Arizona and Ben Zobrist against Padres' rookie Burch Smith who is making his MLB debut. A cheap option for salary cap relief is Dustin Ackley facing Jarrod Parker who has allowed a .329 wOBA to LHB.
Shortstop
Top Play
Jed Lowrie (OAK) - With there not being that many great SS options out there today, Lowrie likely hitting third for the A's against Brandon Maurer and his struggles against LHB is the top play. I don't love it relative to the top plays at other positions, but I think there is a big enough gap between Lowrie and the next best SS on the day to warrant him top play status.
Value Plays
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - Rollins is just way too cheap. Opposing pitcher Trevor Cahill is okay at getting out LHB (.309 wOBA allowed) and doesn't allow a lot of power (.68 HR/9), but with Rollins as cheap as he is hitting at the top of the Philadelphia lineup in a very favorable hitter's park, he has to be considered a value play today.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - As I mentioned yesterday, Peralta hits same handed pitching about just as well as he hits opposite handed pitching. Facing Ubaldo Jimenez (who also hasn't shown many splits over the past couple of years) Peralta is a value play as the Tigers should be a safe bet to score at least a few runs. Ubaldo has allowed a really high .344 wOBA to RHB since 2011.
Alexei Ramirez (CWS) - As I mentioned in Konerko's blurb, opposing RHP Jerome Williams has some reverse splits and is not very good at getting out same handed batters (.337 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9 allowed). The game takes place at home for Alexei in US Cellular field where he has hit for a lot more power (.150 ISO) than on the road (.114 ISO).
Another potential play at SS is Elvis Andrus primarily due to his lineup spot and the Rangers facing Erik Bedard. As per usual, I don't think any SS has a high probability of success tonight so I will likely try to play the cheapest of the ones listed.
Third Base
I'm not going to do a full write up on him just because it's so obvious, but for formality's sake your top 3B play of the day is Miguel Cabrera.
Value Plays
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre still isn't priced as a top 3B option, so I will likely continue to use him. He faces Erik Bedard today who has allowed a .338 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9 to RHB since 2010. Beltre, the last couple of seasons, has a solid .373 wOBA against LHP with plenty of power (.238 ISO, 18 HR in last 341 PA's).
Chase Headley (SD) - After missing the beginning of the season due to injury, Headley is off to a really slid start (.385 wOBA) trying to show that last year was not a fluke. Since 2011, he has a .369 wOBA with a .172 ISO against RHP, but that was much improved last season (.397 wOBA, .213 ISO). He has a good matchup today against Jeremy Hellickson who has his struggles against LHB (.325 wOBA allowed, 1.35 HR/9).
Alberto Callaspo (LAA) - Facing a LHP with both Aybar and Bourjos injured, I wonder if Callaspo is at the top of the lineup today, which would really boost his value. Regardless, I still like him today in a hitter's park against a LHP as the switch hitting Callaspo is much better from the right side of the plate (.354 wOBA) than he is from the left side of the plate (.302 wOBA).
A cheaper option at 3B on some sites is Kyle Seager who I don't love, but Jarrod Parker has not been good this year overall and never that great at retiring LHB.
Outfield
Top Plays
Shin-Soo Choo (CIN) - I love Choo today hitting leadoff against Hiram Burgos who isn't very good overall and has been particularly bad against LHB in his 3 starts (6.82 FIP, 5.15 xFIP). Choo is really quite awesome against RHP with a .313/.403/.515 batting line against from 2011-present. The game being in Cincinnati is just another facet working in Choo's favor.
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - I'm sure by now you know how much I love Nelson Cruz when he is facing LHP. He homered last night and hopefully can produce a similar result tonight against Erik Bedard who is allowing 1.30 HR/9 to RHB. The last couple of seasons Cruz has a dynamite 1.036 OPS against LHP.
Bryce Harper should also be considered as a top play today, although I rank him behind Choo and Cruz.
Best Value Plays
Jay Bruce (CIN) - Bruce is off to a really slow start (.288 wOBA, just 2 HR) and is underpriced on a lot of sites as a result. Today he gets a home matchup against Hiram Burgos whose struggles against LHB I've already stated. In particular, half of Burgos' balls in play are fly balls, making me like Bruce's chances of hitting a big fly today. For his career Bruce has a .936 OPS and .284 ISO at home against RHP.
Andre Ethier (LAD) - Ethier is off to a really slow start. This makes him a bit of a risky play but also a cheap one which hopefully mitigates the risk a bit. Since 2011 Ethier has a very solid .381 wOBA against RHP. Today's opponent Kevin Slowey has allowed a .340 wOBA to LHB since 2010, and his success so far this year (1.81 ERA) is driven heavily by luck (.250 BABIP, 5.7 HR/FB rate, 87.9 LOB%). Slowey remains very FB risky (just a 32.3 GB% this year).
Value Plays
Seth Smith (OAK) - Smith is a solid platoon player (.836 OPS, .202 ISO against RHP since 2011), and he is facing Brandon Maurer whose struggles against LHB have already been documented in this space.
Adam Jones (BAL) - Jones leads the Baltimore team with a .364 wOBA against RHP since 2011. That makes him a very solid play today against Vance Worley who has the worst wOBA (.341) against RHB of any SP in action today.
Andy Dirks (DET) - Dirks is starting to find his stroke with 2 homers in 4 games and hits in 5 of 6 games. His price has been slow to move on some sites, so he is still a good value play today against Ubaldo Jimenez who I'm not trusting despite his stellar performance at the beginning of the week. Ubaldo has yielded a .344 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 to LHB since 2011.
Two other potentially cheaper value plays are Justin Ruggiano, whose team probably won't have a lot success but he hits LHP really well, and Lorenzo Cain facing Andy Pettitte who struggles against RHB.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Yu Darvish (TEX) - On one SP sites I suggest really trying hard to use Darvish and fill in value hitter plays around him. He was one out away from a perfect game the last time he faces the Astros, and his base points on the day are likely to be really high since he has a remarkable career K% of 29.5 (40.5 so far this year) and the Astros have the highest K rate against RHP in MLB (27.2%).
If you aren't worried about Stephen Strasburg or potential rain in Washington, he is underpriced and facing a Cubs team that he has the potential to dominate. Obviously Justin Verlander is a top SP play but I prefer Darvish, and there's no way you can afford both of them. Depending on the site, Hyun-Jin Ryu is high priced but worth it against a Marlins team that is not very good.
Value Plays
Adam Wainwright (STL) - Wainwright is on the more expensive end of the value plays, but his price has dropped a little too much on some sites after getting hit hard by the Brewers his last time out. He has pitched awesome so far this year (1.88 FIP), and the peripheral skills indicate that he is truly back. For his career, Wainwright has been absolutely awesome at home, posting a miniscule 2.69 ERA.
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) - Hellickson is facing a Padres lineup that is not very good (22.5 K% against RHP is 4th highest in MLB, .305 wOBA is 21st in MLB), and he is at home (2.93 ERA, 17.9 K%) where he is much better than on the road (3.56 ERA, 15.6 K%).
Jarrod Parker (OAK) - Parker has really burned me a couple of times this year, but on multi-SP sites where you want to play Darvish his low price tag is attractive. Plus, the matchup is favorable and perhaps Parker gets back on track. He is pitching in Seattle's big ballpark, and against their lineup that is 26th in wOBA against RHP and has the 10th highest K rate (21.8%).
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