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Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: As of now, weather does not appear to be an issue.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
NOTE: Neither game of the Indians-Yankees has been included as most daily sites are excluding those games and using a 7:05 lock time.
Catcher
Top Play
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Rosario has a ton of upside today as his career OPS against LHP is 1.058 with a .364 ISO. He is facing Travis Wood who is okay at retiring RHB (.317 wOBA) but is also very FB risky (46.9 FB%), which could lead to some good power numbers for Rosario.
Value Plays
Alex Avila (DET) - Avila as I've mentioned in this space before is pretty solid against RHP (.369 wOBA, .199 ISO since 2011) and has a good matchup against Bud Norris who has allowed a .351 wOBA, 22.2 LD% and 1.26 HR/9 to LHB.
Victor Martinez (DET) - With Martinez's price dropping on most sites, he's a good value play where he is listed at C, though he is only DH on most sites now I think. He has the same solid matchup as Avila with similar wOBA credentials (.349) but less power and a better lineup spot.
Evan Gattis (ATL) - In a very small sample size (30 PA's) Gattis has smoked LHP. The numbers are sure to regress (1.178 OPS) but with his price falling off as of late and a matchup against a southpaw (Wade Miley, .324 wOBA, 23.1 LD% allowed to RHB) in Arizona, he's a good value play tonight.
First Base
Top Play
Prince Fielder (DET) - Fielder crushes RHP (1.021 OPS since 2011) and faces Norris whose struggles against LHB I just documented. I also want to point out that Norris' current ERA is understated due to a lucky 5.4 HR/FB rate. Since 2010 his HR/FB rate allowed to LHB is 12.8%.
Anthony Rizzo has gotten a bit expensive and finds himself somewhere between a top play and a value play on most sites. He's got a superb matchup today against Juan Nicasio who really struggles against LHB (.362 wOBA, 1.75 HR/9 allowed). Paul Goldschmidt is also a top play candidate as he is almost anytime versus a LHP, especially at home. He's a particularly good GPP play as opposing pitcher Mike Minor allows high LD and FB rates to RHB, giving Goldschmidt plenty of upside. However, Minor is overall effective against RHB (.319 wOBA allowed) leaving him trailing behind Prince a bit today.
Best Value Play
Paul Konerko (CHW) - Konerko is underpriced and has the day's best matchup, which is a pretty awesome combination. Konerko, .362 wOBA and .186 ISO against LHP since 2011, faces Pedro Hernandez who has been absolutely awful. Hernandez has a 5.96 ERA fully "supported" by awful peripherals, and his ZIPS projected rest of season ERA is over 6. In particular, Hernandez has allowed a .538 wOBA and 4.02 HR/9 to RHB. Those numbers are sure to regress some as it is a small sample size (15.2 IP), but they are so extremely atrocious that it is tough to not consider Hernandez versus RHB the best splits opportunity of the day.
Value Plays
Brandon Moss (OAK) - Moss' price is creeping up a bit, but he's just been so adept at hitting RHP (.367 wOBA this year, .419 wOBA last year) that I still consider him a value play going up against Texas RHP Justin Grimm.
Ike Davis (NYM) - Ike is off to a slow start (.180 BA, .126 ISO) so he is cheap today for a matchup against Lance Lynn who has allowed .351 wOBA and 1.28 HR/9 LHB. Meanwhile, Davis has a solid .372 wOBA against RHP backed up by a lot of power (.261 ISO).
Second Base
Value Plays
Matt Carpenter (STL) - Carpenter should be one of many LHB from the Cardinals to have a good day today against Jeremy Hefner who has allowed LHB to post a .310 BA, .250 ISO and 1.81 HR/9 off of him. The sample size is big too (6.18 ERA in 59.2 IP). Carpenter will likely be batting leadoff, and he has a .361 wOBA against RHP.
Daniel Murphy (NYM) - Murphy is another LHB who could have some individual success against Lance Lynn (.351 wOBA allowed to LHB). His price has fallen off quite a bit, and he is a .300 hitter against RHP thanks to a high contact rate (strikes out in only 10.6% of plate appearances).
Tyler Greene (CHW) - Really, I will take any RHB from the White Sox tonight, and with there not being a lot of 2B options that I like, I could see playing Greene. He isn't a complete slouch either, posting a .320 wOBA with a respectable .174 ISO for a 2B against LHP.
Shortstop
Top Play
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - If you have the room, today is a good day to spend on Tulowtizki. There's a huge gap between him and the next best SS. The matchup is solid too against Travis Wood, who as I stated before is decent but prone to giving up power numbers to RHB. Tulowitzki, since 2011, has a .393 wOBA against LHP with a lot of power (.258 ISO).
Best Value Play
Alexei Ramirez (CWS) - Ramirez is really cheap, and going up against Pedro Hernandez who has been absolutely atrocious against RHB. Hernandez could really be in trouble as the White Sox lineup is filled with RHB. Ramirez for his career has a respectable .800 OPS against LHP, much higher than his .697 OPS against RHP.
Value Play
Andrelton Simmons (ATL) - Simmons has just a .306 wOBA against RHP, but that number is more respectable against LHP (.324). Plus Simmons has a great EYE (1.00) and very low K rate (6.4%) that make him a decent daily fantasy option likely leading off against LHP Wade Miley in Arizona (favorable offensive environment).
Third Base
Top Play
As per usual, the top play of the day is Miguel Cabrera. If you have the cap room, he's always a no brainer but so much value that I would force him in tonight against Bud Norris who is actually pretty good against RHB (.298 wOBA allowed).
Best Value Play
Jeff Keppinger (CHW) - Keppinger is dirt cheap on a lot of sites, and has a very favorable matchup against Pedro Hernandez who by now you know I don't like. Keppinger has a big splits difference and is really solid against southpaws (.353 wOBA, .155 ISO against LHP since 2011). In particular, I'm amazed that he has struck out in just 4.6% of plate appearances against lefties the past few seasons, helping him to hit .327 over that span.
Value Plays
There's a lot of 3B value plays listed tonight as I had a tough time separating them.
Luis Valbuena (CHC) - Juan Nicasio is terrible against LHB, and the Cubs are smart about taking advantage of such splits situations. Look for Valbuena to be in a good spot in the order, and he has killed RHB so far this season (.912 OPS). I am slightly concerned his splits may be overrated though as a result of this year's success in a small sample size; Valbuena has just a .309 wOBA against RHP since 2010.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre is underpriced on a lot of sites. The matchup is not amazing as he is hitting in Oakland against AJ Griffin who has allowed just a .298 wOBA to RHB. However, Griffin is prone to giving up the long ball (1.34 HR/9 to RHB), and Beltre has homered once every 17.4 plate appearances against RHP since the beginning of the 2011 season.
Martin Prado (ARZ) - Anytime Prado is at home versus a LHP and priced reasonably he's at least worth being considered, and that's the situation he finds himself in today.
Trevor Plouffe (MIN) - Plouffe hits for a lot of power against southpaws (.250 ISO, 13 HR in 250 PA's) and is just generally effective against them (.377 wOBA). While I like his opponent Hector Santiago tonight, Santiago is prone to giving up the long ball to RHB (1.58 HR/9, 47.1 FB%).
Nolan Arenado (COL) - Arenado has been real cold over the past week which has resulted in a price drop on most sites. As a result, he's not a bad guy to take a cheap flier on against the HR prone Travis Wood.
Outfield
Top Plays
Dayan Viciedo (CHW) - This isn't just me hating on Pedro Hernandez (although I do like to do that) as Viciedo isn't just good against LHP, he is elite. Since 2011 (180 PA's), Viciedo has a .446 wOBA against LHP with a 1.041 OPS and .261 ISO.
Carlos Beltran (STL) - Beltran is an awesome play today against Jeremy Hefner (.386 wOBA, 1.81 HR/9 allowed to LHB). Since 2011 Beltran has swung the bat just as well from the left side of the plate, posting an .873 OPS that is second to just Matt Adams on the Cardinals.
Bryce Harper and Justin Upton are also top play considerations, although Viciedo and Beltran likely will provide more value. Harper gets Josh Beckett (.330 wOBA, 1.25 HR/9 to LHB since 2010), and Justin Upton is back in Arizona facing LHP Wade Miley.
Value Plays
David Dejesus/Nate Schierholtz (CHC) - Both Dejesus (.356 wOBA, .178 ISO) and Schierholtz (.356 wOBA, .190 ISO) have been extremely effective against RHP since 2011. Look for them to be at the top or middle of the order today facing Juan Nicasio who has allowed a .362 wOBA and 1.75 HR/9 to LHB since 2010.
Jon Jay (STL) - Jay will likely hit sixth today against Jeremy Hefner whose struggles against LHB we've already talked about. Jay has a solid .305/.360/.431 line against RHP.
Cody Ross (ARZ) - Ross is at home in Arizona which is pretty favorable to offensive numbers. Also, Ross mashes LHP for his career with an impressive triple slash of .288/.357/.576. His .287 career ISO could mean some good power numbers today against Mike Minor who allows 1.21 HR/9 to RHB.
Lucas Duda (NYM) - Duda, in a large sample size (662 PA's), has hit RHP very well (.362 wOBA, .203 ISO), and opposing pitcher Lance Lynn has allowed .351 wOBA and 1.28 HR/9 to LHB.
Other guys for the right price are Mike Baxter, who hits RHP very well and is facing Lance Lynn who can be ineffective against LHB, and Dexter Fowler who is cheaper than he has been in a while. Alex Rios I did not feel like writing up as I've already written up a ton of White Sox, but he is just yet another White Sock bat who should have success today.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Anibal Sanchez (DET) - The Astros continue to whiff at a huge rate against RHP (27.2%), and as long as they do so I will continue to use opposing pitchers against them. Sanchez is a particularly good play because of his high K rate (career 20.2 K%, 31.5% this year) and is also a really good bet to get a win.
Value Plays
Lance Lynn (STL) - While I think a lot of LHB for the Mets could potentially deliver strong value considering their prices, overall this is a good matchup for Lance Lynn. The Mets have struck out 6th most in MLB against RHP (22.6%) and have a .305 wOBA that is 19th in the league. Lynn will be at home in Busch Stadium which is a bit of a pitcher's park. So far for his career, Lynn has a stellar 25.3 K% which means a good amount of base points, and he has a 2.81 ERA at home (4.07 on the road).
Marco Estrada (MIL) - Estrada is a high volatility play due to his proneness to giving up HR (career 1.44 HR/9). However, I like him today because of his high K% (career 23.8%) facing the Pirates (11th in MLB with a 21.5 K% against RHP) in PNC Park, which deflates HR totals and hopefully mitigates some of Estrada's biggest weakness.
Hector Santiago (CHW) - This value play varies from site to site as Santiago's price is not consistent from site to site. He should be pretty successful today, though. He faces a Twins team that is mediocre to slightly below average offensively, and the game is at Target Field which is much more of a pitcher's park than Santiago's home park. I also like Santiago because of his higher (relative to the rest of the SP's today) probability of recording a win (expect the White Sox to beat up on Pedro Hernandez) and a handful of strikeouts (career 24.7 K%).
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