Today's Featured DFS site is DraftDay. Click HERE for a 100% deposit bonus!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Both the MIN-DET and CLE-BOS games have a 40-50% chance of rain during game time so make sure to keep an eye on these. However, if both games are played, there might be a lot of offense with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
NOTE: With only 4 games tonight and 2 having potential rain issues, I'd advise people not to throw out too much cash on DFS Baseball tonight. Also, note that lineup information will be critical tonight because you are really going to have to squeeze out every bit of value that you can. My general approach tonight is likely to be a studs and duds approach - taking as many top plays as I can and fitting in cheap guys in a good lineup spot on likely high scoring teams.
Catcher
Top Play
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer is easily the top catcher play today on an extremely short slate night. Since 2011 Mauer has a .383 wOBA against RHP and is facing Rick Porcello who has allowed a .363 wOBA to LHB. Mauer is 8,950 on DraftDay.
Value Play
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit is the next best play at catcher. It's a big drop off from Mauer but also likely a big drop off in price. He has the same quality matchup against Porcello and brings in a .337 wOBA against RHP since 2011. Doumit is 6,150 on DraftDay.
Other guys to consider are Victor Martinez who is facing the very hittable Scott Diamond. Carlos Santana is also an option in the game with the highest total (9.5), but I think if I am spending that much money I am going with Mauer.
First Base
Top Plays
David Ortiz (BOS) - Ortiz has a great matchup today at home with the wind blowing out at 20 mph. He faces Zach McAllister who is giving up 1.20 HR/9. That's actually average relative to the other starting pitchers in action today, but Ortiz has the best 1B splits with a .420 wOBA against RHP and a .277 ISO.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Napoli hits same handed pitching well (.403 wOBA, .279 ISO), and opposing pitcher Zach McAllister actually has a slightly worse wOBA (.328) and HR/9 (1.21) allowed to RHB than he does LHB.
Prince Fielder (DET) - With the wind blowing out to RC at 18 mph, Fielder has a ton of upside. Ignore the fact that this is a L/L matchup as 1.) Fielders hits LHP well enough (.365 wOBA) and 2.) Opposing pitcher Scott Diamond has reverse splits. Diamond is actually awful against LHB, allowing a .369 wOBA and 1.31 HR/9.
I am going to look to spend on as many of these top sluggers as I can on a short slate night and save my money on SP and middle infield spots. On DraftDay, it is possible to play all three of these top 1B plays since Napoli is C eligible on that site.
Value Play
Eric Hosmer (KC) - Hosmer is facing the very hittable Joe Blanton (.346 wOBA, 1.25 HR/9 to LHB). Normally this would be a very good cheap play, but with the wind blowing out in other places and premiere hitters having good matchups, I might not turn to Hosmer. Still, Hosmer is the way to go if you are going cheaper at 1B tonight. He is priced at 8,450 on DraftDay, which is about 2.5-3K cheaper than Fielder or Ortiz.
Second Base
Top Plays
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Pedroia is good against RHP (.343 wOBA, much better versus LHP though) and faces Zach McAllister who as mentioned before has actually been slightly worse against same handed batters. He's a top play almost by default with Kinsler and Cano out of action.
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - Kipnis faces one of the better pitchers in action today in Ryan Dempster, but Dempster is not great by any means. He allows a pedestrian .324 wOBA to LHB, and as stated before this game should have a lot of scoring with the wind blowing out. That is reflected in the high over/under. Kipnis himself is a solid hitter against RHP with a .347 wOBA and a .185 ISO that is pretty good for a 2B.
Value Play
Omar Infante (DET) - I will probably save some money at middle infield, and one of the guys you can use to save money is Infante. He's hitting ledoff in the Tigers' lineup which should put up some runs against Scott Diamond (4.99 ERA, 4.95 FIP). Plus, Infante to my surprise is pretty adept at hitting RHP - with a wOBA of .348 and .194 ISO since 2011 that is better than both Pedroia and Kipnis' splits stats on the day. At 7,500 on DraftDay, Infante is a better play than Kipnis and Pedroia at over 10K.
Shortstop
Worth Considering
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - Cabrera is a solid play hitting third in a game with a high over/under, and he is starting out from the left side of the plate where he has more success than the right side of the plate.
Erick Aybar (LAA) - Aybar has a wOBA 20 points higher from the left side of the plate which is where he will be at tonight against opposing pitcher Ervin Santana who struggles against LHB (.336 wOBA allowed). Hitting from the leadoff spot with the splits working in his favor has Aybar on the short list of SS options tonight.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - This play is not about Peralta's skills, rather it is about the lack of SS options, the quality of the Tigers' lineup and the ineffectiveness of opposing starting pitcher Scott Diamond. Look for Peralta to see some RBI opportunities hitting 6th tonight.
I really do not like the SS options today. I have them ranked in the order listed above, but my main determining factor for picking a SS will be price. Fill in the rest of your roster first. Munenori Kawasaki is an option on DraftDay (6,000) due to his low price.
Third Base
Top Play
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - This is really a no brainer every night, it's just a matter of whether or not you can afford Cabrera. It's going to be tough to do so on DraftDay with Cabrera priced at 14,300. If you can do it, all the power to you, but I'd rather play a few top 1B and OF plays. For example, Cabrera is priced about 3K higher than both Fielder and Ortiz, which is substantial.
Boom or Bust Value Plays
I like both Mike Moustakas and Will Middlebrooks tonight as boom or bust type of guys. Both these guys have decent chances at homers with Moustakas facing Joe Blanton (right around 1.4 HR/9 allowed in 4 of the past 5 years) and Middlebrooks facing Zach McAllister (1.21 HR/9 allowed to RHB) at home in Fenway Park with the wind blowing out. On DraftDay, I prefer Moustakas due to his low price (6,950).
Outfield
Top Plays
Jose Bautista (TOR) - I'm not picking on Kevin Gausman who is making his MLB debut tonight in Toronto because there are a handful of established bad pitchers in action tonight. Still, it's hard not to view Jose Bautista at home (1.004 OPS, .289 ISO since beginning of 2011) as a top play against a guy making his MLB debut.
Alex Gordon (KC) - I really like Alex Gordon tonight. He has smoked RHP the last few years (.386 wOBA) and faces the hittable Joe Blanton (.346 wOBA allowed to LHB).
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) - Ellsbury has struggled in May. He hasn't homered in the month and has just one steal and one multi-hit game (his last game) since May 4th. Hopefully this has depressed his salary on the site you are playing at, as Ellsbury should be batting leadoff in the game with the highest total. He is facing a RHP, and has hit .304/.358/.499 against righties since the beginning of 2011.
Value Plays
Oswaldo Arcia (MIN) - I don't expect Arcia to maintain his impressive .376 wOBA against RHP, but I do expect him to continue to hit RHP well. Tonight's matchup should help him do that as he faces Rick Porcello who has allowed a .363 wOBA to LHB. Arcia is a great value play on DraftDay, priced at 6,300.
Torii Hunter (DET) - Hunter hitting second against Scott Diamond is a solid play on a short night. He hits okay against LHP (.334 wOBA since 2011), and that should be enough skill to have you considering him given his lineup position and surrounding team on a night that is lacking the usual amount of options.
Daniel Nava (BOS) - Even though he is a switch hitter, Nava is way better from the left side of the plate, posting a .365 wOBA. He takes those skills into tonight's matchup against Zach McAllister who is a little HR prone. Priced at 7,300 on DraftDay, pairing him with Arcia should give you some cap room to spend some big money at 1B, DH and the other OF spot.
Starting Pitcher
Best Values
Ervin Santana (KC) - Santana is pitching a bit over his head currently, but with limited options at SP tonight he's tough to pass on. He currently has a superb 4.89 K/BB ratio and is pitching at home in Kauffman Stadium which deflates HR totals, and that will help Santana's biggest weakness. This game does not have a low total (8.5), but it is the lowest of the four games in action.
Joe Blanton (LAA) - Blanton, like Santana, should benefit from pitching in a bigger ballpark as one of his biggest weaknesses is giving up the long ball. Not really liking any SP option, I think it is smart to just save money here and play a really cheap Blanton who has just as much chance at success as any of the other SP's in action. Again, this is the game with the lowest total, and it is not as if Blanton has no skills as he historically posts solid K/BB ratios. Priced at just 7,050 on DraftDay, Blanton allows you to spend a lot more on offense.
Ryan Dempster is probably the most established of the starting pitchers in action tonight, but I'll probably avoid him pitching in the game with the highest total in Fenway Park with the wind blowing out. I'd rather spend less on other options since I find Dempster equally as risky.
Check out some of the big DFS Baseball Contests going on tonight:
Sign up on DraftStreet and enter tomorrow's $55 Qualifier for their Baseball Championship which has a $400,000 prize pool.
FanDuel is running a $10 Qualifier tomorrow night for the Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. The Qualifier winner gets a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at a $200,000 grand prize.
Enter tomorrow night's StarStreet $109 PFBC Qualifier to win a trip to the Playboy Mansion and a shot at a $75,000 grand prize.
Check out DailyJoust's daily Qualifiers for their $50,000 SuperJoust.
Daily Game Links: Draft Street | Fantasy Feud | FanDuel |DraftDay | StarStreet | Daily Joust | Fan Throwdown | Star Fantasy Leagues
Join the DailyFantasy Fix Distribution list for daily emails.
