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Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
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Catcher
Top Play
Matt Wieters (BAL) - Wieters is the top catcher play today. He rakes against LHP with a .980 OPS and .256 ISO since 2011. Tonight he is in a favorable hitting environment in Toronto and faces LHP Sean Nolin who is making his MLB debut.
Value Plays
Salvador Perez (KC) - In 171 PA's Perez has compiled a .412 wOBA against LHP with solid power (.226 ISO). At a cheap price on a lot of sites Perez is a value play almost any time he faces a LHP, and the case is no different tonight. Opposing pitcher Jason Vargas is okay against RHB (.315 wOBA allowed), but his high FB rate (45.9%) suggest there is plenty of upside for RHB with power.
Yadier Molina (STL) - Molina is a solid play tonight against Chris Capuano who has yielded a .340 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9 to RHB. Meanwhile, Molina sees LHP incredibly well. He has posted an EYE of 1 in his last 276 PA's against southpaws, and that has helped to lead to a .911 OPS.
First Base
Top Play
David Ortiz (BOS) - There are a lot of good top 1B options today, but if I had to single one out without considering salary, it would be Ortiz. He's at home against Justin Masterson who has historically struggled against LHB (.339 wOBA allowed). Ortiz has just been a monster whether facing lefties or righties these past few years, and in particular has a 1.007 OPS against RHP since 2011 and 1.066 OPS at home during the same time span.
Other top plays include Joey Votto against Scott Feldman (will come back down to earth at some point), Paul Goldschmidt at home versus a LHP and Prince Fielder against Samuel Deduno (good bet to reach base but Deduno does keep the ball on the ground against LHB).
Value Plays
Allen Craig (STL) - Craig's .612 SLG against LHP since 2011 is the one of the highest marks of any batter on the day against a specific handedness pitcher. He has a great matchup to utilize that power as opposing pitcher Chris Capuano gives up plenty of line drives (20.1%) and fly balls (42.1%) to RHB.
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - I fear I am over recommending Gonzalez due to his past prowess against RHP. However, I can't avoid listing him as a value play today with his price down and a matchup against Lance Lynn who goes from elite against RHB to one of the worst against LHB (.352 wOBA allowed, 1.24 HR/9, 5.07 FIP).
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Rizzo's numbers against RHP for his career are just okay (.338 wOBA, .173 ISO), but ZIPS has him projected for a rest of season wOBA of .363 and ISO of .226. Both of those numbers are higher if you weight the spits correctly. So, Rizzo is still an amazing value play today against Bronson Arroyo who has had a nightmare of a time against LHB since 2010 (.362 wOBA, 1.80 HR/9).
Freddie Freeman (ATL) - Freeman is another guy who can't simply be ignored tonight as he has an elite matchup with opposing pitcher Jeremy Hefner allowing a .385 wOBA and 1.69 HR/9 to LHB.
Second Base
Top Play
Robinson Cano (NYY) - Cano rarely is not the top 2B play and today is no different. He has a .992 OPS against RHP since 2011, and today he faces Roberto Hernandez who has allowed a .345 wOBA to LHB since 2010.
Value Plays
Jason Kipnis (CLE) - I like Kipnis a lot today in Fenway Park. He does almost all of his damage against RHP (.346 wOBA against RHP, .286 against LHP), and is in luck today as he faces a pitcher who struggles against LHB. Opposing pitcher John Lackey has allowed a .368 wOBA since 2010 to LHB with a 5.18 ERA.
Jose Altuve (HOU) - Altuve is a great play against LHP. He strikes out just 10.3% of the time, and the high amount of balls in play has led to a .350 BA against southpaws, providing him with plenty of SB opportunities. For his size, he has solid pop too against LHP, posting a .140 ISO. All in all, his .384 wOBA against LHP should allow him to have success today against Tommy Milone who has struggled on the road throughout his career.
Shortstop
Value Plays
JJ Hardy (BAL) - I like Hardy's power upside whenever he is facing a lefty (.192 ISO, 13 HR in 369 PA's against LHP), and that is especially true today in Toronto where RH power is enhanced and the opposing pitching is making him MLB debut.
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - Cabrera's preferred side of the plate is the left side, and that is where he will be tonight against John Lackey who I just mentioned has a tough time against LHB. It doesn't hurt that this game is tied for the highest total of the day at 9 runs.
Third Base
Obviously top play is Miguel Cabrera. Opposing pitcher Samuel Deduno has allowed 2.15 HR/9 to RHB in 37.2 IP. That's pretty insane but sure to drop off as his HR/FB rate is unlikely to stay so high (25.7%). Unfortunately on most sites Cabrera is too expensive to play.
Value Plays
Manny Machado (BAL) - At the right price, I'll take any Baltimore bat in Toronto against Nolin, who I think struggles and doesn't last very long. An early trip to the pen for the Jays could mean a lot of scoring opps for the O's. Machado is a solid value likely hitting second.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - I think I deserve some kudos for lasting this long before my Joe Saunders hatred has seeped into today's FIX. Saunders is just so terrible against RHB (.364 wOBA allowed, 1.32 HR/9), that it's tough not to have a few RHB from the opposing team, especially when it is a high powered offense like the Rangers. The one thing going for Saunders is he is at home in Seattle where his ballpark can cover for some of his mistakes, but Beltre is one of the better more expensive value plays on the day.
David Freese (STL) - I'm sure you've noticed this trend by now, but I think RHB against Capuano are a good play. I wouldn't go overboard as Capuano is a decent pitcher, but I would be surprised if we don't see at least 1 Cardinal RHB go yard tonight. Freese for his career is a .311 hitter against LHP with a 9% BB rate, so I like his chances of reaching base a couple of times tonight.
Juan Francisco (ATL) - Francisco has a lot of upside tonight, although he is generally a risky pick (career .18 EYE). He has a .222 ISO and 17 HR in 336 PA's against RHP, and today's opposing starter Jeremy Hefner yields 1.69 HR/9 to LHB.
Outfield
Top Play
Nelson Cruz (TEX) - Joe Saunders meeting a RHB who crushes LHP results in today's top OF play. I'll be very disappointed tonight if Cruz, who has a 1.021 OPS with a whopping .297 ISO against LHP since 2011, is unable to record an extra base hit off of Saunders.
More Expensive Value Plays
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) - Masterson is a ground ball pitcher who has a tough time getting lefties out. Ellsbury meanwhile is a speedster hitting leadoff in a game with a total of 9. I just like this combination even if Ellsbury has been scuffling in May.
Matt Holliday (STL) - More Cardinals' RHB. Again, I'm not by any means proposing a Cardinals' stack, but I think you should be choosing one or two of their RHB to play in your lineups depending on price. Holliday has an extremely impressive .411 wOBA against LHP and .250 ISO since 2011.
Jason Heyward (ATL) - Heyward's career numbers against RHP aren't elite, but those are dragged down by his injury riddled sophomore season. Last season, Heyward posted an elite .397 wOBA against RHP, and today he faces the worst SP out there against LHB in Jeremy Hefner.
Other guys that are generally good plays and remains so today with solid matchups are Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout.
Less Expensive Value Plays
Andre Ethier (LAD) - Ethier's price is modest enough that he is worth risking against Lance Lynn, who as I stated in Adrian Gonzalez's blog just has a difficult time with LHB. Ethier has a .383 wOBA against RHP since 2011.
David DeJesus/Nate Schierholtz (CHC) - The Cubs certainly seem to know how to make the most with what they've got, and Dejesus (.361 wOBA, .180 ISO against RHP) and Schierholtz (.353 wOBA, .191 ISO against RHP) are good examples of this. Look for them to have success today against Bronson Arroyo and his .362 wOBA allowed to LHB.
Jeff Baker (TEX) - Baker's positional eligibility varies from site to site, but he's always worth considering against LHP (.181 ISO, .344 wOBA) especially when that LHP is Joe Saunders.
Cody Ross (ARZ) - Cody Ross is another really solid splits play. He's at home in Arizona where the ball carries and boasts a career OPS of .931 with a .285 ISO against LHP.
Other less expensive value plays to consider are AJ Pollock, Melky Cabrera and Garrett Jones. As usual on a 15-game night, there are other viable options too, but this is what stuck out most to me as I tried to balance price with performance potential.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Anibal Sanchez (DET) - Sanchez is by far the biggest favorite on the day, making him most likely to get those coveted daily fantasy points for a win. That's not the only reason he is my top play, though. Sanchez has been awesome this year, striking out 29.6% of batters. His opponent, the Twins, have struck out the 8th most against RHP this year with a 21.6% mark, and overall they have just a .309 wOBA against RHP which ranks 20th.
Other solid top SP's are Jordan Zimmermann and AJ Burnett. Zimmermann is the second biggest favorite on the day, and he is facing a Phillies team that will be without Chase Utley. Burnett has been great this year, and should have success against a Brewers' lineup that is heavily right handed.
Value Plays
Kris Medlen (ATL) - Medlen is a heavy favorite against the Mets who are throwing out Jeremy Hefner. Medlen is underpriced as his peripherals to start the season are not where anyone expected them to be. So, if you are expecting those to normalize, you almost have to play him in this situation. He has a good chance at a win, is underpriced and is facing a team that struggles against RHP (Mets are 26th in wOBA against RHP (.298) and strike out the 4th most (23.2%)).
Two other guys I think are strong value plays at a cheaper price are David Phelps and Marco Estrada. I love my strikeouts always and especially in daily fantasy. Phelps and Estrada rank 3rd and 4th among today's starting pitchers in terms of K% since 2010. Phelps has a 24 K% and faces a Tampa team that is just okay against RHP. The game is in Tampa which is a much better environment for the HR prone Phelps than Yankee Stadium. Estrada has a 23.7 K% and faces a Pirates team that is at best middle of the pack offensively.
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