Today's featured DFS site is Star Fantasy Leagues. Click HERE for an exclusive first time deposit bonus (use code "fantistics")!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Danger Zone: MIL-MIN (80-90% chance of rain, T-Storms); Keep an eye on: KC-STL (50-60% chance of rain, scattered T-Storms).
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
UPDATES: There was no total set last night for the White Sox-Cubs game, and now I see why the bookmakers held off. The wind is blowing out 20 mph to LF, and the total has now been set at 11. Make Paul Konerko a value play and Dayan Viciedo close to a must play in early slate games. Also, I've removed Ruben Tejada and Matt Kemp from the FIX as they are dealing with injuries from yesterday.
Catcher
Best Value Play
Jason Castro (HOU) - Expect to see a handful of Astros and Rockies in the FIX today as that game pits two below average pitchers (Lucas Harrell and Juan Nicasio) against each other in Coors Field. The game has easily the highest total on the day at 10.5. Castro, in particular, is underpriced on a lot of sites. He normally hits third against RHP and will look to take advantage of Nicasio's .350 wOBA and 1.55 HR/9 allowed to LHB since 2011. Castro has a very solid .366 wOBA and .193 ISO against RHP. He is definitely the best value option on our featured site of the day, Star Fantasy Leagues (SFL), as he is priced at just $4,202.
Other Value Plays
Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco (CIN) - Both Hanigan and Mesoraco have shown to see LHP well, so I like them both today as cheap options against Scott Kazmir who in 26.2 (nearly all of those have come this year, did not pitch in 2012) IP against RHB since 2011 has allowed a whopping .432 wOBA and 2.36 HR/9. I need to point out that Hanigan has an insane 2.90 EYE against southpaws in his last 158 PA's, so it is unlikely he would be overmatched should he get the start.
If you are playing the afternoon slate, I can't help but at least consider going back to the Miguel Montero well as he hits RHP well and gets Justin Grimm in Texas, one of the few parks better for offense than Montero's home park in Arizona.
First Base
Top Play
Joey Votto (CIN) - Even though this is a L/L matchup, I like Votto as the top 1B play today. I just really don't trust Scott Kazmir, and Votto is such a good all around hitter that he still has posted a .945 OPS against LHP the last three seasons. Also consider that the Indians will likely be in their bullpen early today. Kazmir has not gone more than 6 IP in any start this year with as many starts lasting 6 innings (2) as starts where he did not make it out of the fourth (2).
Value Plays
Carlos Pena (HOU) - Pena has some HR upside facing Nicasio (1.55 HR/9 allowed to LHB) in Coors Field. Pena has a .192 ISO and .345 wOBA against RHP since 2011. Pena is priced at just $5,404 on SFL.
Todd Helton (COL) - Helton is actually still a decent player against RHP, posting a .278/.374/.449 line in his last 605 PA's against RHP. That comes with a great 1.08 EYE and passable .171 ISO. Those numbers should be good enough for Helton to be a viable play today, likely hitting sixth in the highest projected scoring game of the day. Opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell is also not very good against LHB, allowing a .335 wOBA to them. Helton is a real bargain on SFL at $5,455.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Napoli still strikes me as underpriced on some sites, and he has a favorable matchup today against Jonathan Pettibone who allows a 41% FB rate to RHB. That should be good for Napoli and his huge power against RHP (.277 ISO since 2011).
Travis Hafner (NYY) - Hafner is always a viable play when he's home in Yankee Stadium against a RHP, and this particular RHP (Dillon Gee) has allowed a .346 wOBA and 1.25 HR/9 to LHB.
Adam LaRoche (WAS) - LaRoche is in a positive hitting environment in Camden Yards today which should help him maximize his positive matchup against Fredd Garcia, who has allowed a .352 wOBA and 1.37 HR/9 to LHB. Meanwhile, LaRoche has a solid .347 wOBA against RHP and a .207 ISO since 2011.
Second Base
Top Plays
Robinson Cano (NYY) - Cano's home stats against RHP are just silly. Here are his OPS's at home versus RHP from 2011-2013: .886/1.176/1.035. Obviously Cano has a high price on most sites, but if you have the cap room this is a really good spot to spend.
Brandon Phillips (CIN) - Phillips is another really strong 2B play today. I've already discussed Scott Kazmir's general ineffectiveness, and Phillips should see plenty of RBI opportunities as a result. He's the Reds standard cleanup hitter and has a really solid line for an MI against LHP since 2011: .295/.352/.473. He's probably worth spending on at SFL, priced at an expensive but affordable $9,015.
Solid Play
Matt Carpenter (STL) - Most sites have adjusted Carpenter's price upwards to where it should be, so he's not undervalued. However, he's still a solid play at 2B if you can't afford Cano/Phillips and want to avoid going cheap. Carpenter has played so well this year that his total wOBA against RHP since 2011 of .370 is right up there with the Cardinals' team leaders over that time span. Hitting leadoff today against Jeremy Guthrie, who struggles against LHB (.360 wOBA, 1.52 HR/9 allowed), Carpenter is in a good spot to have success.
Cheap Value Play
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Weeks has been awful this year and isn't even in the lineup everyday anymore. However, if he is playing today and you need cap relief, I could understand going here. It's a high risk/high reward play but at least there is some reward as Weeks faces Twins' SP PJ Walters who has allowed a whopping 2.21 HR/9 in his past 36.2 IP against RHB. Weeks has hit 20 or more homers in three straight seasons and at 30 YO we should see the pop come back in 2013.
Shortstop
I'm not going to do a full write up on Troy Tulowtizki as he is almost always the top SS play of the day, and today is no different, especially since he is at home in a game with a total of 10.5.
Value Plays
Jean Segura (MIL) - Segura has simply been awesome this year, and he has now compiled a career .362 wOBA against RHP. The sample size is still small (260 PA's), but he can't be overlooked given the speed and power he has shown (14 SB/8 HR) on a day when the Brewers offense seems primed to put up a handful of runs.
Another cheaper option that is a possibility is Zack Cozart who does not have great skills but should be hitting second today for the Reds against Scott Kazmir.
Third Base
Top Plays
David Wright (NYM) - As I stated in Tejada's blurb above, I think we see Nuno come back down to earth a bit today. Wright leads the Mets with a .376 wOBA against LHP since 2011 and has an impressive 1.34 EYE - meaning he really sees southpaws well. The power against lefties has been disappointing but hopefully Yankee Stadium and Nuno's fly ball ways (42.1 FB% to RHB), albeit in a small sample size, contribute to Wright hitting for power tonight.
Aramis Ramirez (MIL) - Ramirez is awesome against same handed pitching posting a .375 wOBA and .209 ISO against RHP since 2011. He has a ton of upside today against PJ Walters given how HR prone Walters has shown to be.
Value Plays
Todd Frazier (CIN) - I hate to keep hating on Scott Kazmir, but his numbers against RHB, small sample size or not, have just been so bad this year: 7.76 ERA, 6.25 FIP, 46.4 FB%, 17.9 HR/FB%. Some of those will regress a bit, but there's still so much upside here. Especially consider that Frazier's main asset is his power (.211 ISO against LHP) and giving up power is Kazmir's biggest weakness. I like Frazier a lot on SFL, priced at just $5,780.
Jimmy Paredes (HOU) - If you are desperate for cap room, Paredes is a worth taking a flier on. He's frankly not that good, but lefties in general hit Juan Nicasio well and this game has a total of 10.5 - making anyone in either starting lineup worthy of consideration at the right price.
Outfield
Top Play
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) - CarGo is easily the day's best play. He is a much better hitter when facing righties, posting a .401 wOBA against RHP since 2011. In a game with such a high total at Coors Field and Cargo already having an awesome pitcher-batter matchup based on handedness splits, it's tough to go wrong here.
Ryan Braun is a step below CarGo in my mind today but as usual carries tremendous upside, especially given PJ Walters' 2.21 HR/9 allowed to RHB.
Early Slate Awesome Splits Plays
Jason Kubel (ARZ) - Kubel is hitting in one of the best offensive environments in baseball in Texas, and he faces RHP Justin Grimm who has allowed a .346 wOBA to LHB for his career. On the other side of that is Kubel and the great power he has displayed the last few seasons against RHP (.223 ISO).
Dayan Viciedo (CHW) - We've been over this before - Viciedo crushes LHP (.434 wOBA, 1.017 OPS against southpaws since 2011), which makes him a good value play, especially on sites that don't price for splits, against all but the most elite of LHP's, which Travis Wood is not.
Value Plays
Dexter Fowler (COL) - Fowler is just another Rockie LHB that is primed for success today at home in Coors against Lucas Harrell. Fowler hits for a lot more pop from the left side of the plate, posting a .188 ISO since 2011, and as mentioned before, Harrell struggles against LHB: .335 wOBA allowed.
Jacoby Ellsbury/Daniel Nava (BOS) - It's a small sample size of 21 IP, but Pettibone has not fared well against LHB, allowing a .371 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9 and achieving just a 11.5 K%. Look for both Boston outfielders to have success from the left side of the plate as Ellsbury (.374 wOBA against RHP) and Nava (.371 wOBA against RHP) have hit RHP well since 2011. Ellsbury is the better value of the two on SFL, priced at $7,205.
Other guys to consider include Gerardo Parra, Adam Jones, Eric Young and Carlos Beltran.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Felix Hernandez (SEA) - Two shaky starts against two pretty solid offensive teams likely has King Felix's price lower than it has been in a while on the site you play at. That's perfect news for a home start against the San Diego Padres. I'm not concerned about the two rocky starts at all either as Felix has some elite peripherals right now: 27.1 K%, 6.23 K/BB ratio, 52 GB% and 2.29 FIP. I'd go as far as to call him a must start for early slate games.
Value Plays
Doug Fister (DET) - I'm not enamored with a lot of the evening pitchers, so I will likely have Fister everywhere. He is priced moderately in most places ($13,284 on SFL) and has a strong matchup against the Pirates in a pitcher's park playing with National League rules. Fister has really been awesome this year (5 K/BB ratio, 57.1 GB%) but has some unlucky BABIP and LOB% that should normalize and work to reduce his ERA, not that it is bad anyways at 3.65.
Mike Minor (ATL) - The Blue Jays are without a DH and down Brett Lawrie, which makes an already favorable matchup (Jays have a .300 wOBA against LHP, 19th in MLN) for Mike Minor even more favorable. I'm a little worried about Minor's FB tendencies leading to some homers from a couple of Toronto's powerful RHB (Bautista, Encarnacion), but with not a lot of SP options I like, I'll take a chance on Minor and his 3.27 FIP at home against a weakened Toronto team.
I'd consider Cardinals rookie Michael Wacha as a third SP on multi-SP sites as he may be priced really cheaply and has a favorable matchup for his MLB debut at home versus the Royals. I probably will shy away from RA Dickey, but if you think his struggles are just the case of a slow start, he is underpriced for a start against a NL team with no DH.
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