Jordan Lyles- HOU- Rise Value- Lyles had a horrible spring, posting a 17.74 ERA in Grapefruit League play. He has settled down some at AAA. He has a 5.32 ERA in his first 6 games, 5 of them starts, but has had bad luck. Lyles' FIP is only 3.58. His K/9 is only at 4.18, though, which is a concern. Lyles finished strong with the Astros last season, with an opponents' OBP lower than .300 over his last 10 starts. His main problem is consistency and he needs to show some before he can be counted on for fantasy value.
Zach Clark- BAL- Rookie- The 29-year-old has been laboring in the Baltimore farm system since 2006. Expectations were low for the undrafted free agent. Two shoulder surgeries hindered his progress over the years. Last season Clark posted a 1.75 ERA in AAA, although his FIP was 3.39. In 5 starts at AAA this season he has had opposite luck, with a 4.56 ERA and 3.08 FIP. Clark will be in the bullpen for the Orioles as long as he is up with them. When he makes his major league debut, it will be a feel good story but shouldn't have much in the way of fantasy impact.
Jacob Kipnis- CLE- Hot- Regression to the mean might be kicking in for Kipnis. He is 6-for-21 in his last 5 games, with his first homer of the season. Kipnis is now at the Mendoza line and with a BABIP of .265 there is still room for positive regression.
Melky Cabrera- TOR- Cold- Take away the good luck (.332 BABIP in 2011 and .379 BABIP in 2012) and the PEDs and maybe there isn't much left to Cabrera. His .286 BABIP is very close to the .288 he had in 2009 and 2010. Cabrera has yet to hit a homer in 2013 and has just 3 extra base hits. The sample size is getting more significant and the production just isn't there.
Wilkin Ramirez- MIN- Hot- Ramirez got his 5th start of the season and went 2-for-3 with a walk. His .381 average is not just the product of luck (.500 BABIP) but specifically luck against righthanders. The righthanded hitting Ramirez is batting .500 against righthanded pitchers and only .222 against southpaws. His BABIP splits are severe, with a .750 mark against righties and .250 against lefties. His previous stints in the big leagues show similar reverse platoon splits, but the sample sizes are so small as to be meaningless. Regression to the mean will hurt Ramirez when it happens.
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