Ian Kinsler- TEX- Cold- Kinsler went 0-for-4 to snap an 11-game hitting streak. He is 2-for-13 over his last 3 games. Although the sample size is small this might be the start of some regression to the mean. Kinsler's BABIP of .318 doesn't look that high, but his career mark is .281. That is surprisingly low for a player who has the speed he has shown, however he has only had a BABIP above .300 once in the previous 4 seasons.
Ryan Pressly- MIN- Rookie- Pressly is in about the best position possible for a Rule V draftee- pitching on a team with little expectations of winning, so he can actually get some work instead of languishing on the bench. Once the Red Sox made the decision last year that starting wasn't for him, Pressly put up a 2.93 ERA in 14 games covering 27.2 IP at AA. He owns a 94 mph fastball, which the Twins hope can improve on the 6.83 K/9 that he posted after his promotion to AA. Pressly still has control issues, as exhibited by his 4.63 BB/9 in his 11.2 IP this season. As with most Rule V players he is definitely a work in progress. He may get a decent amount of innings this season (if the Twins and Red Sox don't make a deal to allow him to be sent down) but he is likely to remain rough around the edges.
Ervin Santana- KC- Hot- Santana's percentage of strikes has risen from about 63% for each of the past 3 seasons to 68% this season. That, combined with a higher percentage of batters swinging and missing at his pitches explains a lot of his early season success. Santana has also been much better at keeping the ball in the park, cutting his HR/9 from 1.97 to 1.00. If he can maintain control and keep the homers allowed to a lower level than last year regression to the mean will still leave him with value.
Jimmy Paredes- HOU- Rise Value- Paredes was part of the parade of players moving south from Oklahoma City to Houston yesterday. He had a ,376 average at AAA, but that was mostly driven by a .427 BABIP. Like Trevor Crowe, though, he had improved his Batting EYE over last year, increasing his walk rate to 11.3% and reducing his K rate to 14.5% for a Batting EYE of .78, a vast improvement over last year's .22 with OKC. The Astros view Paredes as a long term possibility in center field. He has stolen more than 30 bases in each of the past 3 seasons and hit double digits in homers in each of the past two so given an opportunity, Paredes is definite sleeper material.
Adam Dunn- CHA- Stats- Dunn is starting to show flashes of his old self. After going hitless in 11 of his first 16 games, with 2 homers, 3 walks and 23 Ks he has turned it around some. In his last 12 games he has hits in 8 of them (for 9 total) with 4 of them homers. He has walked 8 times and struck out 15 times. Dunn's average is still a woeful .151 but that is still a good deal above where it was and a .164 BABIP gives hope that regression to the mean will help. For Dunn, though, it's not as significant because the number of Ks he produces makes it take longer for a change in luck to manifest itself. He seems to have backed away from the changes he had made to his approach earlier. His First strike % is down to 60%, so pitchers are recognizing they don't have that hole to exploit any more.
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