Roy Halladay (SP-PHI): The Indians' absolutely torched Roy Halladay yesterday to the tune of 8 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in 3 and 2/3 innings, pushing his season ERA back to 6.75. Despite averaging 91 MPH with his fastball, Doc's two-seamer didn't have that sharp, sinking action, and as a result he relied more on his cutter (30 of his 76 pitches were cutters, with only 24 two-seamers). Amazingly, hitters only whiffed on 2 cutters and 2 two-seamers! Halladay did string together three quality starts before this one, and he does get the Marlins on Sunday, so owners should roll with him. However, expect inconsistencies throughout the year and manage his usage in your lineup carefully.
Kevin Slowey (SP-MIA): Kevin Slowey tossed another gem yesterday against the Mets, allowing only 1 earned run on 4 hits with 0 walks and 8 strikeouts to earn yet another no-decision. The veteran hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in 5 starts this season and has a 29:6 K:BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings. Slowey's velocity, movement, and swinging strike rate have returned to levels seen before injuries took over the past couple of seasons. While his 86.6% strand rate and .266 BABIP are way better than career norms, so is his 19.5% K rate. A regression is in order, and wins will be difficult to come by, but as long as he's healthy, Slowey is a viable option in deeper leagues and sneaky spot-starter in shallower leagues.
Gio Gonzalez (SP-WAS): Gio Gonzalez struggled once again, allowing 5 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 4 innings against the Braves, adding to a bizarre start to the season. Through 6 starts, Gonzalez has tossed three gems (1 earned run or less) and three duds (5 earned runs or more). On the one hand, he's been a bit unfortunate, as his ERA of 5.34 and xFIP of 3.52 indicate. His strand rate is down 9% to 65.1% and his HR/FB rate is up 9.9% to 16.7%. And his velocity has been close to his 2012 levels and his K rate has moderately increased to 26.1%. On the other hand, he's been reverting in the control department, as his 13% BB rate is a 3.7% increase from last season. Put it all together and it looks as though this is the Gio from 2011, not 2012. He'll be better, but I'd temper expectations.
Yonder Alonso (1B-SD): Yonder Alonso hit his 3rd homer of the year on Tuesday, going 3 for 5 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored, and even adding in a stolen base. One of our preseason favorites has quietly put up a .292/.355/.448 line through 26 games, with 3 homers, 16 RBI, and 10 runs scored. What's really encouraging so far is Alonso's .364/.431/.523 line at Petco, perhaps a by-product of the dimension change. Also, the swing changes he worked on during the off-season to add more loft and power appear to be working, as his flyball rate is up 5.4% and his HR/FB rate is up 3.9%. With Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin back in the lineup, look for his counting stats to improve as well.
Andrew McCutchen (OF-PIT): Andrew McCutchen broke out of 2-for-29 funk in a big way last night, going 4 for 5 with homer, 2 RBI, and a run scored. His season line now sits at a disappointing .247/.308/.423, although his counting stats of 3 homers, 16 RBI, 17 runs, and 3 stolen bases look rather solid. Despite a career low 12.1% K rate and career high 22.4% line drive rate Cutch has been a bit unfortunate with his BABIP, which is 119 points lower than last year's. Put it all together and his numbers should be solid across the board by the end of the year. The big questions to determine if he'll return 1st round value are: is his HR/FB rate, which sits at 9.1% so far, the 19.4% from last year or the 12.2% from 2011? And can he sustain the .375 BABIP from 2012, or is it more of 2011's .291 variety? I see his 2013 numbers as in-between, meaning owners shouldn't sell. Look for him to streak into the weekend.
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