Jeff Samardzija (SP-CHC): Jeff Samardzija struggled through 5 innings yesterday against the Nationals, allowing 5 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks. While he added 5 strikeouts, the Cubs ace is now 1-5 on the year with a 3.70 ERA through 48 2/3 innings. However, Samardzija's peripherals suggest he's been unfortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.19 with a strand rate of 69.6%, and his K-rate sits at a solid 27.7%. Owners shouldn't be too concerned, and Samardzija should have no problem putting up solid production in ERA, WHIP, and K's...but the offense and bullpen will make it difficult for him to find wins. My only concern moving forward is the control: his walk rate is up to 9.2% (from 7.8% last year) and chase rate is down to 31.4% (from 34.2% last year).
Starlin Castro (SS-CHC): Starlin Castro hit leadoff for the Cubs yesterday, going 2 for 5 with an RBI and a run scored. The effort pushed his season line to .273/.297/.400 with 3 homers, 16 RBI, 19 runs, and 2 steals through 35 games. While Castro is one of those rare free-swingers who consistently maintains a high contact-rate and high batting average, his contact rate is at a career-low at 79.5%. Interestingly, his BABIP, which stood at .346 and .344 his first two seasons, has fallen to .315 and .311 in 2012 and 2013. This looks to be due in part to his increasing fly ball rate (which continues to climb yearly to 34.4%) and a focus on hitting more homers. While the increase in power is welcome and he could easily put up a 20/15 season, the days of hitting .300 could be a thing of the past.
Kyuji Fujikawa (RP-CHC): The Cubs activated Kyuji Fujikawa (forearm) from the disabled list after the reliever missed the past 4 weeks. Before going down with the injury, the rookie posted a 19.2% K-rate and a 3.9% BB-rate. While his ERA sits at an ugly 10.13, his xFIP is 3.60, and his BABIP sits at a ridiculous .474. While he is likely to set up for Kevin Gregg initially, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Fujikawa claim the closer's role in the next week as long as he's healthy. Gregg has a 12.9% BB rate and an unsustainable .176 BAPIB. Keep Fujikawa on your radar, and Gregg owners should handcuff if possible.
Tony Cingrani (SP-CIN): Tony Cingrani labored through 4 innings of work against the Brewers, allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts. According to Brooks, 76 of his 85 pitches were 4-seam fastballs, and Cingrani received 1 whiff on his breaking pitches. Cingrani cruised through the first 3 frames, but ran into trouble in the 4th by allowing homers to Jean Segura and Ryan Braun and was pulled before he could even factor into the decision. Interestingly, all 9 of his earned runs so far have come against righties. Roll with him for his next start (which should be at Miami), but then we'll have to see what the Red do once Johnny Cueto is activated towards the end of next week.
Shelby Miller (SP-STL): Shelby Miller was absolutely dominant against the Rockies, tossing a complete-game 1-hit shutout to pick up his 5th win of the year. The rookie phenom added a career-high 13 strikeouts and now has a 51:11 K:BB ratio in 45 2/3 innings while only allowing 8 earned runs. While some regression is in order (ERA of 1.58, xFIP at 2.91 with a .239 BABIP), Miller looks like a must-start in all formats and has quickly emerged as a top-35 option. How much he regresses during his second-go-round of the league will depend in large part on mixing in a third pitch: according to Brooks, he has thrown his 4-seam fastball 72% and his curveball 24% of the time. Unless another owner offers you top-25 value, I wouldn't sell high.
Follow me on Twitter @walterkuberski
There are over 100 players covered in the members' area each day. If you're not already a subscriber, please join us today!
