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Some of today's top plays include reliable standouts such as Prince Fielder, Mat Latos and Buster Posey...but it's Chase Headley, Andy Dirks and Paul Maholm who could really help you bring home the top prize today!
Today's featured DFS site is StarStreet. Click HERE for a first time deposit bonus!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: As of now, the only worrisome game is BOS-NYY, which is calling for thunderstorms all evening long.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catcher
Top Plays
Buster Posey (SF) - Posey faces off against rookie Tyler Lyons today. Lyons is LHP, and Posey has been one of, if not the best, hitters in all of baseball against LHP since 2011. In that time span, he has posted an insane 1.094 OPS, .456 wOBA and .295 ISO. Lyons has a ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 4.94.
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Rosario, like Posey, has some pretty insane numbers against LHP, especially at home. For his career at home against LHP (112 PA's) Rosario has an 1.144 OPS. Overall against LHP Rosario has a 1.004 OPS. With those numbers Rosario is a top play at home even though Ryu has been really tough so far this season.
On our featured DFS site of the day, StarStreet (SS), Posey and Rosario are both great plays, priced affordably at $5,600 and $4,600 respectively.
Value Play
Alex Avila (DET) - Avila has a solid .363 wOBA and .195 ISO against RHP since 2011, and today he is facing rookie Kevin Gausman who has not appeared ready for the Majors in his first two career starts (11 ER in 9 IP, 4 HR allowed). This game is being played in a good offensive environment in Baltimore and has a really high total of 10.
Two other catcher value plays I like but are too risky to write up are Yasmani Grandal and AJ Ellis. I am worried Grandal sits after playing back to back games, and we won't know for sure by roster lock time as his game is not until 10:10 p.m. However, if you want to take the risk Grandal has an elite matchup against Ramon Ortiz. Ellis also has a great matchup, facing a LHP in Coors Field, but he has been out of the lineup with an oblique injury and it's not clear if he will be able to return today.
First Base
Top Plays
Prince Fielder (DET) - As I mentioned in Avila's blurb, Detroit looks primed to score a lot of runs today (again) facing the shaky Gausman in a game with a total of 10. Fielder has a .996 OPS and .268 ISO against RHP since 2011. He's probably my play on SS, priced at $6,300.
Chris Davis (BAL) - Davis has been killing the ball this year, and now he gets to face a shaky RHP at home in a game with a total of 10. Davis, since 2011, has a .377 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP, and this season his batting line against RHP is an absurd .394/.491/.833. That's good for a laughable .538 wOBA. He faces Rick Porcello who has allowed a .369 wOBA to LHB since 2011.
Value Plays
Yonder Alonso (SD) - Alonso gets to face the battering ram that is Ramon Ortiz. Ortiz is basically throwing BP to LHB having allowed a .405 wOBA and 2.25 HR/9 in 24 IP against LHB since 2011 all while walking more than he has struck out. Alonso has a solid .291/.360/.427 batting line for his career against RHP, and I expect the SLG portion of that line to grow.
Lance Berkman (TEX) - Berkman's site has dropped off a bit on most DFS sites, which makes him a good value play today at home against Ervin Santana. Berkman has a very good .402 wOBA against RHP since 2011, and even if we discount that a good chunk assuming some age related decline, it's high enough to make him worthy of considering in a hitter's park facing Santana who has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to LHB.
Cheap Play
Ike Davis (NYM) - Davis has been awful, but on some sites he is priced so far below the average player, that he is worth risking today. He faces Kevin Slowey who has been horrendous against LHB since 2011, allowing .386 wOBA and 1.26 HR/9.
Other strong plays worthy of considering depending on price are Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman and Justin Morneau. I also really like Matt Adams if he is in the lineup today. Adams has an .860 OPS against RHP and faces Chad Gaudin who just cannot get LHB out.
Second Base
Robinson Cano is probably your top play as he normally is at home against RHP. However, I probably won't play him today given his high price, Clay Buchholz being pretty effective against LHB (.311 wOBA allowed since 2011) and the threat of rain for this game.
Another guy that finds himself between a top play and a value play is Matt Carpenter. He's priced highly on some sites, and I'm not sure if I am ready to dish out the big bucks for Carpenter yet. However, he seems like an extremely safe choice today leading off for the Cardinals. He is one of the Cardinals' leaders with a .373 wOBA against RHP since 2011, and opposing pitcher Chad Gaudin has allowed a .382 wOBA and 24.8 LD% to LHB.
Value Plays
Mark Ellis (LAD) - Ellis has led off or hit second in the past three games for the Dodgers, and if he is in either one of those spots again today that make him a really strong value play. He is hitting in Coors Field and facing a LHP, and Ellis has hit just under .300 against LHP since 2011. This particular LHP, Jorge de la Rosa, has yielded a .322 wOBA to RHB. On SS, Ellis might be the best 2B value priced at just $3,900.
Ben Zobrist (TB) - Depending on the site you play at, Zobrist may also be or may only be OF eligible. This recommendation is simply my belief that Zobrist is underpriced coupled with a game that has a pretty high total of 9.
Other guys I would consider depending on price are Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis and Jurickson Profar.
Shortstop
Not surprisingly Troy Tulowtizki is the top SS play today at home against a LHP. Play him if you can make it worth without too much trouble, but I don't think today is a day where you have to play him.
Value Plays
Everth Cabrera (SD) - I've already mentioned how terrible Ramon Ortiz has been against LHB so that makes Padres' leadoff hitter Everth Cabrera an attractive option tonight. He has a strong chance of reaching base given Ortiz's skills (or lack thereof) which may allow him to wreak havoc on the base paths with his speed.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - Detroit has to be the highest projected scoring team on the day, so really anyone on their roster is worth considering. Peralta, who does not have negative splits when facing same handed pitching (.335 wOBA), should see some RBI opportunities and has a higher probability than most days of homering. He's likely my play on SS, priced at just $4,200.
Other guys I would consider for the right price are Didi Gregorius, JJ Hardy and Asdrubal Cabrera.
Third Base
Miguel Cabrera is the top play and has a great matchup so squeeze him in where it is realistic, but unfortunately given Cabrera's insane May he is not a realistic option on a lot of sites given his giant prce tag.
Best Value Play
Chase Headley (SD) - Ortiz has ben soooo bad against LHB. I'll remind you (.405 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9 in 24 IP since 2011). Look for Headley to provide great value hitting in the middle of the Padres lineup today. Since 2011, Headley has posted a team leading .364 wOBA against RHP.
Solid Plays
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre does not have the best overall pitcher-batter matchup, but he does carry a lot of upside today. Opposing pitcher Ervin Santana has been good in general against RHB (allowing just a .299 wOBA since 2011) but is very HR prone (allowing 1.53 HR/9 to RHB since 2011). Beltre might be able to get a hold of one at home; he has a .247 ISO against RHP since 2011.
Manny Machado (BAL) - Machado like Beltre does not have the best overall pitcher-batter matchup as Rick Porcello has allowed just a .308 wOBA to RHB. However, the overall environment of today's game is conducive for Machado to put up points: at home, he hits second, the game has a total of 10.
Headley and Machado are the best options on SS priced at $5,400 and $5,500 respectively.
Outfield
Best Value Plays
Nick Markakis (BAL) - I'm really considering everyone in this game as Camden Yards, the hot day and the wind blowing out are contributing to what is expected to be a very high scoring affair in Baltimore as evidenced by the total. Markakis in particular is a good play because he already had a really solid pitcher-batter matchup. Markakis has a .357 wOBA and .825 OPS against RHP since 2011, and opposing pitcher Rick Porcello has allowed a .369 wOBA to LHB.
Jason Heyward (ATL) - Heyward is off to a very slow start which has his price reduced too much on a lot of DFS sites. Look for him to get on track today against RHP Nate Karns who ZIPS has projected to post a 5.35 ERA and allow 1.63 HR/9 over the rest of the season. Heyward is just $5,200 on SS.
Value Plays
Carlos Beltran (STL) - First off, make sure Beltran is in the lineup as he rests from time to time and Sunday is a day where that is more likely to happen. He has a really good matchup, though, against Chad Gaudin who has allowed a .382 wOBA to LHB, giving up a high 24.8 LD% and walking more guys than he has struck out. Beltran has been the Cardinals' best hitter against RHP since 2011, posting an .872 OPS.
Josh Hamilton (LAA) - Hamilton isn't cheap but he is affordable on most sites, and he has a really good matchup today against Jordan Lyles who has allowed a .359 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to LHB. Hamilton has a .379 wOBA and .264 ISO against RHP since 2011.
Andy Dirks (DET) - With Austin Jackson out, Dirks has been hitting in the two hole, which is the perfect spot for him to achieve a lot of value in today's anticipated high scoring affair. He faces rookie Kevin Gausman who has had two shaky starts. Dirks has posted a .354 wOBA against RHP the last two seasons. Dirks is an awesome value on SS, priced at $4,500.
Other guys to consider depending on pricing and lineups are Ryan Braun, Michael Cuddyer, Nate McLouth, Will Venable, Mike Trout, Matt Joyce and Jon Jay.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Matt Harvey (NYM) - In my opinion, Harvey is the clear cut top SP of the day. He is a big favorite at -200 in a game with the lowest total on the day (6.5). Harvey, who has elite skills (career 2.72 FIP, 28.5 K%), should have no problems with a really bad Marlins lineup that is by far the worst team in MLB against RHP with a .268 wOBA.
Yu Darvish and his insane strikeout rate is also a consideration for the top play of the day, but Harvey is a bit cheaper on most of the sites I've seen and the Marlins are just so bad.
Best Value Play
Mat Latos (CIN) - Latos is a great value play today priced in between the top options and the mediocre options. He is pitching in a really good pitcher's park in Pittsburgh against a Pirates team that is 22nd in MLB with a .303 wOBA against RHP while striking out at the fifth highest rate. Facing Jeanmar Gomez (whose success I do not think is sustainable), Latos also has a good chance at grabbing a win.
Value Plays
CJ Wilson (LAA) - Wilson has shown much better control in his past three starts, not walking more than 2 batters in anyone start and posting a K/BB ratio of 17/4. He enters today as the biggest favorite at -250. Wilson is facing the Astros who have actually been quite good overall against LHP (.333 wOBA), but Wilson is still staring a lot of fantasy points in the eye given his chance at the win, his pitcher friendly home ballpark and the Astros high K rate (24.2 K% against LHP is highest mark in MLB).
Paul Maholm (ATL) - Maholm is also a large favorite today, pitching at home against the Nationals who are without Bryce Harper. The Nationals so far this season have struck out at the third highest clip in MLB against LHP (23%) while posting a collective team wOBA of .254 which not only is dead last in MLB against LHP, but is worse than the Marlins' team mark against RHP, which is saying a lot.
I think Latos and Maholm are the best SP combo to build a team around on SS.
Check out some of the big DFS Baseball Contests going on tonight:
Sign up on DraftStreet and enter today's $55 Qualifier for their Baseball Championship which has a $400,000 prize pool.
FanDuel is running a $25 Qualifier Tuesday night for the Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. The Qualifier winner gets a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at a $200,000 grand prize.
Enter Tuesday night's StarStreet $200 PFBC Qualifier to win a trip to the Playboy Mansion and a shot at a $75,000 grand prize.
Enter today's DraftDay satellite leagues that give you an entry to their Big League Blast Qualifiers and a chance to compete for $200,000 in prizes including a $50,000 grand prize
Check out DailyJoust's daily Qualifiers for their $50,000 SuperJoust.
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