Mike Leake - Mike Leake tossed seven innings and gave up 1 ER against the Pirates on Monday and now has a 7-3 record on the season. Leake also owns a 2.64 ERA and 3.76 xFIP. The biggest difference for Leake this season has been that he's inducing a large number of grounders (52% GB%), limiting line drives (24% in 2012 vs. 18% in 2013) and, most importantly, has finally reduced his HRs allowed. Leake's got a 9% HR/FB rate this season compared to a career 14% mark - up until 2013, he had simply been giving up too many HRs. This year, he's given up just seven in 88 2/3 innings and has the ERA to show for it. Leake's also made a slight improvement in his strikeout % (17%), but still doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like to see. Considering his past struggles with HRs, I'm not quite convinced Leake has turned the corner because of such a small sample, but he's definitely taken a big step forward for his career in 2013. He can be a back end starter in deeper leagues for now.
Francisco Lirano - Francisco Liriano faced a tough opponent in the Reds on Monday and gave up 2 ER over six innings. He struck out six and walked two. Liriano entered yesterday's outing with a 2.78 xFIP and 2.36 ERA. He has been striking out more than 10 batters per game while walking fewer than four and had not allowed a HR until giving up two bombs Monday. Considering Liriano owned a 13% HR/FB rate in 2012, expect the lefty to experience some regression in this area moving forward. That said, Liriano has done a good job improving his GB rate from 44% in 2012 to 49% this season. Maintaining this improvement will be critical in determining whether Liriano can continue to pitch so well. The more grounders he gets, the fewer chances for HRs. Opposing hitters are making good contact off Liriano (24% LD rate), but his GB/FB rate was 2.36 entering Monday's start compared to 1.26 last season. We're going to see regression here, but Liriano is also doing a lot of things well to date.
Ryan Howard - Ryan Howard had a huge game against the Nationals on Monday, belting his 8th HR of the season and collecting three hits. Howard now has his SLG% up to .460 and ISO up to .186 - both respectable marks although far from what the slugger produced during his heyday. Howard posted HR/FB rates of 28%, 22% and 21% the past three seasons, but owned just a 12% mark entering last night. His whiff rate remains high at around 30% and he's not walking much anymore as evidenced by his 8% walk rate. And, while Howard does own a .323 career BABIP, he's enjoying a .358 mark this season so I expect some regression in his .274 batting average in the coming weeks. At this point in his career, Howard is a backup fantasy first baseman except in deep NL-only leagues, although he can still occasionally show some pop like he did Monday.
Jacob Turner - Jacob Turner made his fourth start of the season on Monday against the Diamondbacks and allowed 2 ER over five innings to go along with five strikeouts and three walks. In 55 innings last year, Turner owned a 4.42 ERA, 4.34 xFIP and K/9 of 5.89. Like many young pitchers he struggled with the long ball, giving up almost 1.5 per game. He also enjoyed a low BABIP of .241. This season, Turner is striking out about the same number of batters per game while walking a few more. However, he's also improved his GB rate to 55% and has given up just one homer in 25 innings. We're talking about a very small sample size, so it's hard to gauge if Turner's slight improvement is sustainable. For now, he's a risky option even in daily and deep leagues, but is worth watching in keeper/dynasty formats.
Dan Haren - Dan Haren had a so-so outing against the Phillies on Monday, yielding 4 ER over six innings with three strikeouts and three walks. The right hander's ERA sits at 5.72 in 78 2/3 innings this season. Haren's strikeout % has fallen for a fourth straight year, down to 18% entering last night's start. He's posting a career-high HR/FB rate of 16%, which ends up being more than two long balls per game. The one bright spot is that Haren has shown good control with just 13 walks all season and his 4.21 FIP is much more respectable than his ERA, indicating he could experience positive regression in the coming starts. That said, there's not a whole lot to like here and Haren's a risky option, even in deep NL-only leagues.
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