John Axford (RP-Cleveland) John Axford picked up his league leading 8th save of the young season. Earlier in the year, I talked about a possible resurgence and we are seeing just that so far this year. But as the baseball gods are wont to do, could it be that this turnaround is not be built on the most solid of foundations. Axford's velocity is down almost 1.5 mph to 93.8 but he has still been able to generate a swinging strike rate of 11.5% which is the highest of his career. While he is pitching to a 3.12 ERA, his xFIP points to a number 2 runs higher. Axford has been walking batters at an alarming 6.52% rate, his LOB% of 84.9% may not last, and he is benefiting from a .183 BABIP. It appears that Mr. Axford and his supporters are in for a regression that could be relatively severe and may wipe out all the good equity he has built up this season.
Justin Masterson (SP- Cleveland) Justin Masterson gave up 8 hits and 2 ERs in 6 innings while striking out only 2 in a no decision. He has had a slow start to the season with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP and no wins to his record. Of some concern in the early going is his drop in velocity which has been almost 3 mph to just over 90 mph. Counter-intuitively, his swinging strikeout rate is at the highest rate of his career. Perhaps it is the fact that his walk rate is up 1% from a not too impressive career 3.59% rate. But his contact rate is at the lowest rate of his career. He is a terrific ground ball pitcher and his current rate of almost 56% is in line with his career average. Masterson's BABIP is artificially high at .357 and his strand rate is too low at 64.6%. His xFIP point to improvement since it is more than 1 point below his current ERA. So faced with this statistical anomaly, my guess is that he will perform about as he did last year, when he finished with 14 wins, a 3.45 ERA and recorded a 1.20 WHIP.
Prince Fielder (1B-Texas) Almost as seductive as the fascination with highly touted prospect is the big HR hitter moving to a big hitter's park. This year's version of this refrain is Prince Fielder. The expectation was that Fielder moving from the cavernous Detroit ballpark to the friendly confines of Texas would immediately return him to the HR production he enjoyed at Milwaukee. Well not exactly. He has 2 HR's this year. Fielder experienced a fairly dramatic reduction in batted ball speed last year which is unexplained. He is only 30, so we would not expect it to be age related, but his HR/FB% has steadily declined over the past three years. Look, I would love to have him on any of my fantasy teams but I caution you not to expect more than he had been producing in Detroit.
Drew Smyly (SP-Detroit) Drew Smyly pitched a quality game today striking out 7 in 6 innings of work and only giving up 2 ER in the a no decision. Quietly Smyly, has had a good start to his season averaging a strikeout an inning and producing ground balls at a 48% rate. His FB Velo of 90 is just a bit down, but not alarmingly so. His major issue going forward this year is that his contact rate is at a career high of 86%. Despite his strong K performance, his swinging strike rate is way under his career average of 9.7%. If that should improve, his overall performance could stabilize. Coming back to a starting role from middle relief will certainly test his stamina this year, however as a back end of the rotation pitcher on your team, you could do a lot worse. At 24 years old, and supported by a strong Detroit offense, I would pick him up in deeper mixed leagues if he is still available.
Colby Rasmus (OF-Toronto) Colby Rasmus has been an enigma for fantasy owners who expected a further breakout this year. His BABIP of .256 has certainly been a strong factor in his terrible early year performance. To make matters worse, he was hampered by a hamstring injury to start the season. Colby possesses outstanding power and bat speed at a time where power hitting is at a premium. He has vacillated from batting .276 in 2010 and 2013 to hitting .223 and .225 in the intervening years. I do not think that all is lost based on this year's very small sample size. True he is hitting .191 now, but if we accept his regression to a .260 hitter off of last's years elevated .356 BABIP performance, he could still hit .270 the rest of the way. At 27 years old, and with Toronto starting to play better as a team, I see him as a speculative pickup as a 5th outfielder on your team and someone who has the offensive upside to do even better.
@stevietheshu
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