Andrew Heaney- MIA- FYI- Heaney has an extra day off before his next start on Thursday, due to an off day in AA Jacksonville's schedule. He will be coming off his first poor performance of the year. Last Friday he only pitched 3.2 IP, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 3. Even after that, Heaney owns a 2.25 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9. It is anticipated that he will skip the AAA level and join the Miami rotation in June, depending on who gets cold when. If he bounces back on Thursday that time frame will remain intact. If Heaney pitches another clunker his short term stock won't be as high.
Domonic Brown- PHI- Stats- Brown has experienced a power outage this season so far, with only one homer. His Batting EYE has improved from 2013, increasing from .40 to .53. That bodes well. However, he needs to do more than beat the ball into the ground. Brown's GB% has soared from 42.4% last year to 58.7% so far in 2014. Both his LD% (18.7% down from 22.8%) and FB% (22.7% down from 34.7%) have suffered from this extreme ground ball tendency. When Brown has gotten some loft the ball hasn't gone far (HR/FB ratio down from 19.3% to 5.9%.) His HR/FB ratio from last year was a bit of an outlier, but so is the low rate this year. Brown should rebound some in the power department and the Batting EYE is a good sign that he could be a buy low candidate.
Nate McLouth- WAS- Rise Value- With Bryce Harper out for an extended period, it looks like McLouth will get the bulk of playing time in left field. His current .118 average is weighed down by a .111 BABIP. His Batting EYE of 1.00 in 43 PAs is a good sign that regression will provide him with some value. McLouth has the potential to help in the stolen base column as well as add the occasional homer and score runs.
Jeff Samardzjia- CHN- Hot- Samardzjia will be seeking his 6th straight quality start and also his first win of the year a day later than planned. Yesterday's rain out pushed him back a day. Samardzjia has been the definition of hard luck pitcher this year. His 1.53 ERA hasn't been good enough to gain him a victory yet. He has thrown more than 110 pitches in 3 of his 5 starts so far and April isn't even over. Last year Samardzjia had 13 high-pitch games, with 8 of them coming in the first half. His ERA, FIP, xFIP, BB% and HR/FB ratio all went up in the second half. The one thing that went down, his K/9, wasn't a good thing. This kind of heavy usage early makes him a risk for fatigue as the season wears on. That puts Samardzjia in a sell high category.
Kolten Wong- Drop Value- Wong was shipped out to AAA Memphis yesterday. He was batting only .225 but also had a BABIP of .258 in the early going. As in his brief call up with the Cardinals last season, Wong has hit far too many balls into the ground. His GB% in 62 PAs last year was 60.9% and was up to 65.6% so far in 2014. Most of what's wrong with him will be cured by regression to the mean. Regular playing time at AAA should help him get that and provide him with an opportunity to work on his groud ball tendency.
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