Desmond Jennings (OF-Tampa Bay) Earlier in the year I had written that I expected Desmond Jennings to finally develop this year. Coming off a 2013 where he batted only .252, there was a lot of room for improvement. The promise that many of us saw is finally starting to show. Even though he took the collar today, he is batting a very much improved .271 with 10 doubles, 18 runs scored, 4 HR's and 10 RBI's. His ISO is up to .202, his LD% is over 20% which is the best mark of his career, and he has a 14.3% HR/FB ratio which is an improvement on last year's 9.3% and the 2nd best of his career. It looks like he has turned the corner and Jennings will pay strong dividends for his owners this year.
Rick Porcello (SP-Detroit) Rick Porcello pitched another strong game today picking up his 5th win of the season while only allowing 2 runs in just under 7 innings this evening. The key for Porcello this year has been his ability to limit walks which have plagued him throughout his career. This year's 1.4 walks per nine innings is a major improvement over his career rate of 2.26. While he is clearly not a strikeout pitcher, he induces GB's at a career 52.7% rate. The reason for optimism this year is that his xFIP at 3.17 is actually lower than his 3.49 ERA. Additional good news comes by way of his current GB rate of 46.8% which has some positive regression in the number. It looks like Porcello at 25 years old, and coming off a 13-8 record last year, is becoming a valuable fantasy commodity.
Mark Buerhle (SP-Toronto) Mark Buerhle pitched a wonderful game today throwing 7 innings of shutout ball on only 3 hits and 6 K's to up his surprising record to 6-1. He is sporting a 1.91 ERA while only striking out 5.55 batters per 9 innings. His xFIP stands at 4.08 and with an 81% strand rate we have the makings of a major correction. This is not to say that Buerhle is not a viable pitcher. He is an innings eater in an era where this is not a pejorative term. He has not pitched less than 200 innings since his rookie season with the White Sox in 2000. Buerhle sports a very good 191-143 career record with a fastball VELO which is sitting at just over 83 mph. This man knows how to pitch. But a 2.6% HR/FB rate is likely to regress to his 9.8% career mark, especially pitching in the AL East, so while the trending is not positive, ride him while he continues to pitch this well.
Carlos Santana (3B-Cleveland) The Cleveland Indians are have struggled offensively this year and no one more than Carlos Santana. After today's 0-4 showing he is batting .111 in May and .139 on the year. Santana is a career .247 hitter, so a low average is nothing new, but this showing is disturbing. Santana batted .268 last year with 20 HR's and 74 RBI's so it not like he can't hit better. His K% of 19.0 is slightly elevated off of his career 17.8% but he is actually walking more than he ever has. The clear culprit is a BABIP of .148 which most certainly will correct itself in a positive direction as the year progresses. His contact rates are in line with his career numbers which are about at league average. He sports a 10.8% LD% and a 14.3 IFFB% which are a deadly combination for offensive production. Santana is clearly not squaring up on the ball this year. His HR/FB numbers are slightly off his career norm, but he should still continue to display power as his FB rate is 42%. I'm afraid we looking at a repeat of 2011 where his power and RBI numbers were fine but he hit only .239.
Nick Markakis (OF-Baltimore) Nick Markakis has gotten off to a very good start this year, after going 1-3 today, which gives us hope that we might see a glimmer of the once promising player who knocked in 101 runs in 2009 and 112 in 2007. Batting leadoff will certainly preclude that from happening again, but his plate discipline has improved this year with a K rate of 8.7% which would be a career low. He is squaring up better this year as he has brought his IFFB% down from 14.9% last year to 9.5% this year which is more in line with his career average. He has always been a very good contact hitter, way above league average, and this year he ranks among the leagues best at 91%. His ISO is not where you want it to be, but even in his best year he only hit 23 HR. Perched atop the Orioles lineup, especially when Chris Davis returns, we could see him return to being a nice fantasy value that you acquired at a very low price.
@stevietheshu
This is just a small sample of our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
