Yasiel Puig (OF-Dodgers) Yasiel Puig smacked his 8th HR of the year and knocked in his 33nd RBI going 3-5 in tonight's game. Puig continues to put on display the electric talent that made him a rookie sensation last year. I think some predicted that Puig's widely entertaining but unbridled game would catch up with him this year. If it has, I'd like to have about 8 more of him on my team. He is batting .333 on the year and has also stolen 4 bases. Puig has silenced his critics by becoming a much more disciplined hitter in 2014. His walk rate is up to 11.7% and his K rate of 19% is almost 4 points lower than last year. All of this and an OBP of .416 and you have a 20/20 hitter who just might notch 30 in one of those categories. The crazy and exciting thing is that you think it should be 30 HR's, but would you honestly be surprised if he really turned it on in SB's and it came in both.
Hunter Pence (OF-SF) Hunter Pence has experienced a very significant power outage this first part of the season. Pence has averaged between 25 and 27 HR's over the last 6 years hitting 25 three years in a row. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball except for this year. With only 3 HR in 190 plate appearance this season, disappointed fantasy owners are looking for an answer. His FB% at 31.4% is just a point off of his career average. So he is hitting approximately the same number of fly balls but not producing HR's at his normal rate of 14.9%. In fact he sits at less than half that rate. His contact rates are in line with his career averages. Looking at the spray charts it appears like Pence is not pulling the ball like he does when he is hitting more HR's. Pence seemed to deviate from his proven formula last year when he distributed the ball to all fields with good HR results, but this approach is not paying the same dividends in power production this year. The dimensions of his home park do not favor this distribution from a right handed hitter. While his batted ball speed is still a strong 105 mph, his HR power may not return until he starts to revert to being the pull hitter he once was.
Junior Lake (OF-Chicago Cubs) Junior Lake hit his 5th HR of the season and drove in his 16th RBI in today's game. His average stands at .255. Coming into the year it was Lake's speed that was thought to be his primary value. In the Minors he stole 126 bases which was one every 19 plate appearances. With some power potential and a good .284 BA last year in 250 AB's he was a bit of sleeper this year with clear 20+ SB potential. Let's examine what we have so far. What we do know is that he has been a very undisciplined hitter this year striking out at an alarming 38.5% K rate and producing on a 3.4% walk rate. His .209 ISO is encouraging but he has never been known as a bomber in the Minors. His current .255 average is buoyed by a .371 BABIP but in limited play he did achieve his 2013 numbers on a .377 BABIP. However, he had a better K% at 26.8% and he walked more at 5.1%. His LD% has dropped to an anemic 15% from a rather unsustainable 27.8% last year. Based on his current trends I can't see him being much of a contributor in BA this year. He is swinging at 7% more pitches outside the strike zone and his overall contact rate is down by 9%. With 5 steals already on the season, as long as he hits high up in the order like he did batting 2nd today, he should get his 20 steals. Perhaps he approaches 20 HR's as well. Normally a 20/20 player is very valuable, but your enthusiasm will have to be tempered by a BA which will be a major drain on your team.
Freddie Freeman (1B-Atlanta) Freddie Freeman is a precious gemstone that sits in a setting like you would find in a Crackerjacks box. He went 1-4 today. Atlanta has been one of the most unproductive offensive teams in the league this year ranking 29th in runs, 27th in BA, 29th in OBP, and 23rd in slugging. His brilliant start to the year is starting to fade a bit even though he is still hitting .305, has 7 HR's, 24 RBI's and has scored 23 runs. We can still probably pencil him in for numbers only slightly less than what he produced last year, when he hit .319 with 23 HR, 89 Runs and 109 RBI's. The true shame here is that Freeman has the talent to be a league MVP but save for Justin Upton, the overall performance of the team will most certainly sabotage that this year. Mr. Freeman marches on with a better plate discipline, a higher contact rate, and at .213 the best ISO of his career but it won't matter until someone lights a fire under his teammates and his manager who only recently started to adjust the lineup.
Jeff Samardzija (SP-Chi Cubs) Jeff Samardzija was the loser in today's ballgame dropping to a record of 0-4 on the year. He gave up 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 6 in 5 innings of work. A pitcher I thought who could break into the top 20 this year, has not given that kind of performance thus far. His impressive 1.62 ERA on the year is not supported by a .349 xFIP. Last year was the reverse where his ERA was nearly a point higher than his .345 xFIP. Now it not all bad news as Samardzija has a 51.6% GB rate, a 2.57% walk rate, and has reduced his HR/FB% to a sterling 4.4% down from 13.3% last year. But is his HR/FB rate sustainable? Probably not for a pitcher at Wrigley who has a lifetime 10.6% rate. Also, his LOB % of 84.2 is high so his ERA will go up significantly as the year progresses. The most troubling statistic is the decline in his K% by more than 3% which is borne out by an 8.3% Swinging Strike Rate which is at a 3 year low. We have a long way to go, but with a very limited offense behind him, the breakout we had hoped for does not look very promising.
@stevietheshu
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