Justin Verlander (SP Detroit)
Justin Verlander picked up his 7th win against 7 losses today giving up 9 hits and 2 runs with 4 K's in 6 innings of work. This type of performance is a far cry from what Verlander owners were expecting from a pitcher they hoped would rebound back to the ace form that has characterized his career. I'm afraid that there is no real indication of a return to his former status. His fastball velocity has been on a steady decline since 2009 and that decline has accelerated in the last 2 years. Verlander still misses bats but his swinging strike rate while good at 9.4% is a far cry from his last great year in 2012 when he produced a rate over 11%. Every one of his pitches has declined in effectiveness this year and especially his change which he throws 27% of the time. His mediocre 4.71 ERA is supported by a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA. It looks like another down year for Verlander and one not even potentially as good as his 13-12 3.46 ERA record of last year.
Billy Butler (KC-DH)
Billy Butler's struggles continued today as he was 0 for 5 while striking out three times to drop his BA to .268. In addition to the depressed BA there has not been much other production from Butler as he has only 2 HR and 34 RBI's on the year. This pace is way below his 2012 breakout season when he hit 29 HR's and drove in 107 runs. His FB% has steadily declined over the past 3 years which certainly does not help but it is not readily apparent why his HR/FB rate has sunk to such a low 3.2% rate from a peak of almost 20% just two years ago. His contact rates have remained around his career average rates and his K% is just one tenth of a point higher than in 2012. His batted ball speed declined significantly in 2013 and with 2 HR all season the sample size is too small to get a good read on his rate. It is quite possible that the decline continues in 2014 which would account for his inability to drive the ball with authority this season. This would seem to be counterintuitive for a ballplayer just who is 28 years old and should be at his physical peak. Whatever the reason, and it could just be poor mechanics, we should be alarmed by his current level of futility at the plate.
JJ Hardy (SS-BAL)
JJ Hardy had 2 hits and drove in 1 run in today's game. The shock for Hardy owners is that one the best power producing shortstops in the game has only 2 HR's on the season. A hitter with a career ISO of .168 is now at .080. Hardy's plate discipline, which was never a great strength, has declined further this year as he is now walking only 3.9% of the time and his K% is up 4% from last year's 11.3%. He is hitting FB's at his usual rate. Always a good contact hitter with a career 85.6% rate he is at a career low 84% this season. Perhaps this drop in contact rate combined with a reduced distance on fly balls is the culprit. Certainly 2 HR's does not give you much to work with when trying to gauge whether his bat speed has greatly diminished. Pitchers seem to be throwing more balls off the plate to Hardy and he has never been a strong hitter on the outside corner of the plate. Whatever the reason is for the total loss of power, it is clear that Hardy is not making solid contact this year and it would appear that any great surge in the 2nd half is not very likely.
Chris Young (SP-Sea)
Chris Young upped his record to 8- 4 on the season pitching 7 innings of two run ball yielding only 2 hits and striking out a surprising 8 batters. I say surprising because Young has one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball at 5.03. He has an ERA of 3.11 this season. A close analysis of his underlying statistics would suggest that Mr. Young must be doing this with mirrors. His fastball tops out at 85 mph and he throws it an amazing 70% of the time. While his curveball and slider are slightly improved in 2014, they are not strong enough to support this level of results. His xFIP stands at 5.37 and he has been extremely lucky with a .203 BABIP. Add in an 83.2% LOB rate and expectedly low 5.6 swinging strike rate and you have a recipe for a 2nd half disaster. While I believe that the day of reckoning will certainly be coming, Young has always been able to outperform his statistics. The crash will be sharp but the man is crafty so he could find some ways to soften the landing a bit. Clearly though, he is a prime sell high candidate if you can find someone who has bought into this illusion.
Fernando Rodney- (CL-Sea)
Fernando Rodney picked up his 24th save of the year with a perfect 9th inning. His ERA sits at 2.16 for the season and he has averaged 10.26 K/9 innings. Rodney possesses an outstanding fastball at over 95 mph which is bringing heat for a pitcher who is 37 years old. The changeup has been great again this year and he throws it with aplomb 30% of the time. Rodney keeps the ball in the park and induces GB's at a 50% rate. The only chink in the armor has been a decline in his swinging strike rate to just under 10% from a career high of 13.2% during his 48 save campaign in 2012. His xFIP sits at 2.81 so there is some chance that his 2nd half will not be quite as effective as the first, but with the likes of King Felix and Ikamura in the rotation the save opportunities should be plentiful and Rodney seems poised to continue to capitalize on them.
@stevietheshu
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