Jake Arrieta (SP- Cubs)
Jake Arrieta pitched another quality start today giving up 4 runs (3ER) on 4 hits and 3 walks with 6K's in a no decision effort. The Cubs rotation was filled with question marks coming into the season, but they have certainly found an answer in the 28 year old Arrieta who they picked up from the Orioles in 2013. He is averaging 9.77 K/9 innings with a 9.2% swinging strike rate fueled by major improvements in his fastball placement and especially in the effectiveness of his cutter. He has been a bit lucky with a .285 BABIP and an 80.1% LOB rate but with his stuff and a 50.5% GB rate he has the tools to be very effective. A 1.95 ERA will most certainly go up, but a 2.75 SIERA speaks to how well he has pitched. He has breakout season written all over him.
Lucas Duda (1B-Mets)
Lucas Duda clubbed his 14th HR of the year and knocked in 2 in tonight's game. It appears quite clear that Met's management made the right decision when they kept Duda and shipped off Ike Davis. Duda had a .257/.356/.485 triple slash line that makes him very relevant in mixed leagues. With a 48% FB rate and a 13.4% HR/FB rate the power should continue unabated for the rest of the year. His contact rates are slowing creeping upward and he has always maintained a good LD% over the course of his career. We would all like to see a BA higher than .257 but with a 12.4% walk rate and a declining K% there is hope of improvement in that area as well. At 28, we could be seeing the emergence of Duda a reliable power corner for years to come.
Aroldis Chapman (CL-Cinn)
Aroldis Chapman continues his amazing comeback from a very scary pre-season injury to pick up his 20th save of the season striking out all 3 batters that he faced. He has a 2.20 ERA with an astounding 17.9 K/9 innings and has a microscopic xFIP of 0.81. Chapman has a 20.6% swinging strike rate that currently is 5% higher than Craig Kimbrel who is the closer that he is most often compared to in the elite category. With an average velocity of 100 mph on his fastball, combined with a plus slider that he throws 30% of the time, you have a devastating strikeout machine whose upside is unlimited at 26 years old.
Henderson Alvarez (SP- Miami)
Henderson Alvarez could not provide a follow-up to his outstanding 1 run 7 inning effort against the Cardinals on Sunday. His record dropped to 6-4 on the year after the Mets pummeled him today for 6 ER. This outing saw his ERA rise to 2.63 on the season. Alvarez does not miss enough bats, so a reversal of fortune for him should not be a surprise. In fact a 3.56 xFIP is a warning that his numbers will likely sag in the 2nd half. To his credit Henderson is a strong GB pitcher at almost a 55% rate but any return of his prior tendencies for giving up the long ball--he gave up 2 today--would signal that a decline was imminent. With no real plus pitches in his arsenal, the outlook for Alvarez will remain weak especially when he is on the road. Outside of the cozy confines of the Marlins ballpark, Alvarez has been battered with a .304 BA against and a .357 OBP vs. .239 and .279 at home. He is a classic sell high candidate if you can find someone enamored with his ERA.
Jeff Locke (SP Pitts)
Jeff Locke did not factor in the decision today pitching 6.1 innings of 3 run ball with 9 hits and 5 K's. Locke currently sports a 2.89 ERA on the season with an excellent 0.95 WHIP. He is not a strikeout pitcher at a poor 5.63 K/9 inning rate but he balances this deficiency with excellent control with less than 1 walk per game. Locke's changeup is his best pitch and he throws it very effectively almost 25% of the time. If he could somehow translate his 9.3% swinging strike rate into more K's he would certainly garner more attention. I do think that Locke is an effective pitcher as his 53% GB rate and masterful control illustrates. At only 26, he is a solid back of the rotation option in mixed leagues with the ability to be a lot more if he could find a way to punch more batters out.
@stevietheshu
This is just a small sample of our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
