Matt Cain (SP-SF)
What are we to make of Matt Cain this year? A prime rebound candidate after last year's 8-10 4.00 ERA swoon, Cain was always considered a front line pitcher whose peripherals did not always support his performance but he was very valuable. He maintained a strong career ERA of 3.40 and had years like in 2012 when he was 16-5 and had an ERA of 2.79. The advanced peripherals did always point to some underlying issues as his career xFIP is 4.19. Starting last year and unfortunately continuing in 2014, his extreme fly ball tendencies have caught up with him and have resulted in a significant rise in his HR/FB rate. This year he is at an all time high with a 13.1% mark and he gave up another HR in today's game to shortstop Alexei Amarista who had 1 HR in the prior 73 games . While he pitched well today, Cain took the loss and his record dropped to 1-7 on the year. He is trying to adjust as he has brought his GB% up to a career best 45% so maybe he will find a way to right the ship. Cain's most effective pitch is his curveball and he should use it more often. There is room for some positive regression in his 66% LOB% so we will likely see an improvement in his 4.38 ERA, but these last two years have been tough for a pitcher who at 29 should have been entering his prime.
Jhonny Peralta (SS, STL)
Jhonny Peralta had a fantastic start to the 2014 season and as late as the 3rd week of May his HR/FB% stood at 16.1% and he had 9 HR's in the bank. This HR number was just four shy of his 2012 total of 13 that he reached after 585 plate appearances. The pace of HR hitting has sagged a bit since then but still is a respectable 12 and his HR/FB rate stands at 13%. Peralta has a chance to surpass the career high 24 HR's that he hit with the Tigers in 2005. It is clear that Peralta is upper cutting the ball because his FB% is 5% higher than it was in his best HR year and his IFFB% is at an elevated 13%. You have to wonder if his 50 games suspension last year for his connection with Biogenesis has something to do with his desire to retain his power hitter reputation. What has suffered is his BA which after today's 0 for 3 sits at .239. Peralta has hit above .290 three times in his career so he is capable of better. A .263 BABIP is certainly a contributing factor to the decline in batting average from last year's .303, which incidentally was inflated by a .374 BABIP, but with his current approach a .250 BA is probably all you can expect from him.
Marlon Byrd (OF-PHI)
Marlon Byrd has undergone an interesting transition over the past few seasons. Never much of a power hitter except for one 20 HR season at Texas in 2009, Byrd is now a legitimate threat for his first 30 HR season as he has hit 16 in his first 85 games. He will most certainly surpass his 2013 career high of 24. It seems that Marlon sees the value of hitting the HR and does not mind that it comes at the expense of his plate discipline and contact rate. Byrd's K% has risen to 28.4% as befitting a newly minted slugger. His contact rates which had always been about league average 80% have now sunk to 71%. He is no longer the ballplayer that Phillies fans came to know at the start of his MLB career with them in 2002-04. That version of Marlon Byrd had his highest HR total of 7 in 2003 on 553 PA's. Byrd now sports a .484 Slugging % which is highest on the team.
Jayson Werth (OF Nationals)
Jayson Werth smacked his 8th HR of the season today and is in the middle of a hot streak that has produced 2 HR's, 3 doubles and 6 RBI's while going 6 for 10 in his last 3 games. This is a welcome development for Werth owners who had hoped he could improve on last year's strong production that was unfortunately curtailed by injuries. The hoped for improvement has not been there in the first half as he is well behind his 25 HR pace of last season when he played in just 129 games. Werth's .119 ISO is a career low for him and well off the .214 he delivered last year. Looking at his underlying fundamentals he is almost identical to the prior year in almost every area with the exception of a very depressed 6.6% HR/FB rate especially for a player with a 14.2% career average. With a 42% FB rate this year, and with Harper and Zimmerman back in the Nationals lineup, it should give Werth owners hope that he is at the start of a prolonged productive streak that will carry through the 2nd half and get him back on the HR track. This recent streak has probably awakened confidence in his current owners but if you could somehow ply him away he would be a good buy low candidate.
Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI)
Thirty five year old shortstops are not expected to have bounce back seasons but Jimmy Rollins has been the exception this year. In 2013, Rollin's saw his production drop off dramatically with only 6 HR's and 22 stolen bases after a 23 HR, 30 SB performance the year before. So far in 2014, Rollins has already exceeded last year's HR total with 8 and he has 16 SB's to go along with 39 runs and 32 RBI's. He has brought his walk rate up to 11% which has helped his OBP to reach .333 his highest level in 3 years. There has been a bit of a dip in contact rate which has resulted in a slight elevation in his K% but it has not impacted his productivity. His BA of .249 after today's 0 for 4 is about in the range of where he has been the last 3 years. Owners who reached for him late have been rewarded.
@stevietheshu
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