Matt Carpenter (3B-St Louis)
Matt Carpenter is nearing the end of the 2014 campaign that has seen a lot of his fervent supporters jump ship. You don't have to look too hard at the numbers to realize how much regression we have seen this season. Perhaps we all had unrealistic expectations. Here was a player that has his first taste of the majors at 26. Last season he was a star with a .318 BA, 62 doubles and triples, 78 RBI's and 126 runs scored. He was on a very potent offense and he benefited from a .359 BABIP that helped fuel this remarkable season. Fast forward to 2014 and the once potent St Louis offense that sat behind him was now more pedestrian. Can't blame that on Carpenter. But a player who had produced 73 XBH in 2013 is now sitting at 42 with a .271 average. He can't dodge those numbers. He generated a remarkable 27.3% line drive rate in 2013 but his current 23.5% is probably where he should be. Look, Carpenter is a solid ballplayer and he is a scrappy all effort guy that should be admired. But the star gazing should be over and what remains is much closer to the ballplayer that he really is.
Dee Gordon (2B-LAD)
Dee Gordon stole his 63rd base of the year in today's game. Gordon's emergence as a prototypical leadoff hitter and base stealer extraordinaire is one of the better stories of 2014. In 56 games with the big club in 2011, Gordon hit .304 and stole 24 bases. But while he stole 32 in 87 games in 2012 he batted only .228 with a .280 OBP. This is hardly leadoff material. In 2013 he posted only 10 SB's in 38 games and his uninspiring .234 BA led to a long stint in the Minors. With uber prospect Guerrero waiting in the wings it did not look like Gordon would get another chance but he did. And boy did he cash in. In addition to the league leading SB production, Gordon has a .331 OBP, is batting a healthy .291, and has scored 89 runs. All this while walking at a very poor 5.0% rate. Now some of this has to be attributed to a very fortunate .351 BABIP, but his production has in some ways defied logic when you consider that he has a ground ball rate of over 60%. But, he is a good contact hitter, has a 11% IFH% and he doesn't strike out much so somehow when you mix this all together you have the most effective leadoff hitter in baseball not named Trout.
Hanley Ramirez (SS-LAD)
Coming off a 2013 beset with injury, Hanley Ramirez produced some prodigious numbers. In only 385 PA's, he hit 20 HR and batted .345 with a .638 slugging percentage. Fantasy owners got out their slide rules and started to extrapolate what these numbers would be over a full season of play. This is one of the best shortstops of our generation so why not. You know where this is leading. In 2014 Ramirez has been beset by minor injuries that seem to pop up every other week. A player who had played in more than 150 games 5 times in his career was now not going to reach 130. The unrealistic .363 BABIP from 2013 was replaced by a .318 mark. And to the dismay of owners who reached from him, he is batting .279 with 13 HR and a .444 slugging percentage in more than 150 more PA's than in 2013. Nothing really dramatic in his underlying stats but the production has not been there. Could it be that a return to the more demanding SS position was not the greatest of ideas? Or is it simply the fantasy gods playing one more trick on unsuspecting owners with one of the best players of our time as bait.
Jorge Soler (OF-Cubs)
Jorge Soler had the first triple of his career in today's game. Soler has gotten off to an amazing start to his career hitting .361 with 5 HR, 18 RBI's in his first 68 PA's. The 22 year old has outstanding power and he has kept his K rate to 21.9% which is incidentally the same rate as his Minor League career number. While this is all very impressive, we need to remember what happened to Gregory Polanco. He is certainly regarded as highly as Soler and he began his career with the Pirates leading off for the club and producing at an astounding rate. Things have gone quite in the other direction for Polanco and it would not be surprising to see the pitchers start to figure out Soler as well. Regardless of when this happens, Soler is an outstanding prospect and should be another important piece as the Cubs rebuild their ball club with exciting young talent.
Jason Heyward (OF-Atlanta)
Jason Heyward will miss another game on Friday due to a thumb injury. Heyward tantalized the fantasy world with his 2012 campaign when he clubbed 27 HR and stole 21 bases as a 23 year old. It looked like Atlanta had a budding superstar on their hands. Unfortunately, his 2013 and 2014 seasons have not lived up to the promise of that breakout year. Last season he was somewhat limited by injuries and only appeared in 104 games. This year in 629 plate appearances he has hit just 11 HR's but has stolen 19 bases which has kept some of his fantasy value intact. The fall from a 16.9% HR/FB rate to his current 6.7% is alarming. There has been a decline in bat speed and average true distance that can account for some of this decrease. He was a more aggressive hitter in 2012 swinging at 32% of the pitches outside the strike zone versus 27.8% this season and 28.3% in 2013. While his contact rates have gone up since then, perhaps he is sacrificing power for contact and that change has not helped him. Whatever the reasons, Heyward has too much talent to be providing the empty stats that he has this season even taking into account the poor performance of some of the Atlanta hitters around him. Only 25, he remains an intriguing and talented player and you have to hope that he makes an adjustment next season.
@stevietheshu
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