Preseason Prep - Feb. 19th, 2015

Andrew Cashner, SD

Cashner pitched well when healthy in 2014, finishing with a 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 93 K's in 123.1 IP. For the 2^nd year in a row, his BABIP (.274) and HR/FB% (6.0 %) were well below league average, and while he could be in for some regression, these numbers may have a lot to do with his home park. Over the past two seasons with the Padres, Cashner's home/road splits have been quite drastic. At home, he has posted a 1.70 ERA and allowed a .279 SLG, .241 BABIP, and 5.7 HR/FB% over 2013-2014 combined, compared to a 4.11 ERA, .417 SLG, .301 BABIP, and 8.3 HR/FB% on the road over the same time span. He has allowed 25 XBH in 153.1 home innings, and 56 XBH in 144.2 innings on the road, so it's pretty safe to say Cashner enjoys pitching at Petco. While it's hard to expect him to replicate his 2.55 ERA from last year, Cashner's dominance at home makes him a valuable fantasy pitcher.

Carl Crawford, LAD

Crawford played well when healthy in 2014, hitting .300 with 8 homeruns and 23 steals in 105 games. He batted above .280 for the 3^rd consecutive year, and while he was aided by a .335 BABIP, his career BABIP is .328, thanks to high ground ball and infield hit rates. His speed seems to still be intact, and he maintains an above average contact rate, so he should be able to continue providing a good average. What has held Crawford back in recent years has been his lack of playing time; he has averaged only 96 games per season over the last four years due to injuries and a crowded Dodgers outfield. With Matt Kemp out of the picture, and a potential move to the top of the lineup, Crawford could see an increase in at bats in 2015 which could certainly help boost his runs and steal totals. While the injury risk makes Crawford not worth an early draft choice, he could be a steal in the later rounds as he has always managed to remain productive when on the field.

Ender Incarte, ARI

Incarte had a nice rookie season for Arizona last year, batting .278 with 19 steals and 54 runs scored in 118 games. He had an excellent contact rate throughout his minor league career and that continued in the big leagues, where he posted an 11.9 K% in 2014. His 23.8 LD% also bodes well for him hitting for a high average, as does the fact that he turned it up a notch as the season went on, improving from a .235/.266/.271 slash line in the first half to .306/.352/.417 after the break. Perhaps the most enticing thing about Incarte is his speed, as he has averaged 35 SB's over the past four seasons in the majors and minors combined. The key to his fantasy value though may end up being his playing time, as he could potentially be used as the left-handed side of a platoon. The truth is, Incarte wasn't bad against lefties last season, batting .273 with K and BB rates better than what he produced against righties. If he does end up getting most of the playing time, he could have nice sleeper value.

Julio Teheran, ATL

Teheran improved on his solid 2013 campaign with an ace-like season in 2014, posting a 2.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 221 IP. For the second season in a row, he significantly outpitched his xFIP, as his 3.72 xFIP in 2014 exceeded his ERA by nearly a run. His .267 BABIP is likely due for some regression, and his 8.1 HR/FB rate was below league average as well. An increase in the latter could be especially troublesome for Teheran, given his tendency to be a flyball pitcher (43.8% FB rate, 6^th among qualified pitchers). His K-rate also decreased from 8.24 K/9 in 2013 to 7.57 K/9 last season, and considering that his fastball velocity dropped about 1 MPH, and that he had a 7.15 K/9 mark in 275.2 AAA innings, his 2014 K-rate may be a better projection looking forward. Despite the expected regression, Teheran should still be a good pitcher in 2015, but an ERA in the mid-3.00s may be more of a reasonable expectation than for him to repeat last year's numbers.

Jered Weaver, LAA

Weaver managed to win 18 games last season despite otherwise unspectacular, albeit decent, numbers, including a 3.59 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts in 213.1 IP. He continues to outpitch his peripherals, as his BABIP allowed was below .280 for the 6^th consecutive year, and his HR/FB has been below 9.0% in each of his eight seasons. As a result, his ERA has consistently been lower than his xFIP by a significant margin. Could Weaver just have gotten so lucky for so long? Probably not. His consistently low BABIP can be explained by his extreme career 47.7 FB% and well above average 13.0 IFFB%, while his low HR/FB rates are mostly a result of pitching in Anaheim where he has posted a 6.3 career HR/FB% as opposed to 9.4% on the road. In total, he has allowed 73 HR at home and 112 on the road, which is a major cause for his home/road ERA discrepancy (2.66 and 3.92 respectively). A more major concern for Weaver is his increased BB-rate, which is at its highest since 2009. This is largely a result of his decreased O-Swing% which at 26.8% is by far his lowest in five years. With mediocre strikeout totals, Weaver's fantasy value is somewhat limited, but until he posts a bad season, it would seem at the very least that he deserves to get drafted.

Time Frame: Preseason

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