One of the greatest challenges for all of us over the next month will be salvaging useful information from spring camps. Each evening you can go dumpster-diving into a trove of information and reporting from Florida and Arizona.
This guy looks great. This guy is in the 'best shape of his life.' This guy can't field and, thus, won't play. This guy will bat 6th, not 2nd. This guy has gotten lit up in his first two outings. And, of course, the biggie ... this guy is injured.
With each injury, we receive a corresponding timetable for the players return, but it's a real ordeal to deduce if a team is giving you the most optimistic timetable or the most realistic timetable. For some injuries, we have a good grasp of the normal recovery time. For others - oh, say, avulsion fractures - we have to mostly just trust what we're hearing.
On Saturday, the Chicago White Sox informed their Arizona contingent that Chris Sale had suffered an avulsion fracture in his right foot. What does that mean?! A quick and easy explanation is that Sale had a small fragment of bone tear away from a main mass of bones because of a physical trauma (all the Chi-Sox have said is that he was unloading something out of the back of his truck).
Sale is expected to miss three weeks and, according to the teams' timetable, he'll be back on the hill in mid-March, but is very iffy for the Opening Day start on April 6 in Kansas City. On Sunday, pitching coach Don Cooper even admitted that Sale could be out for more than one start. Remember, the fracture is on his landing foot. There could be a chance of lingering pain there.
So, what to do if you're drafting this week? His current ADP stands at 22. He's currently the 3rd SP going off the board. The guys behind him are extremely comparable to, if not the same as, Sale. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, David Price, and Cory Kluber are all being selected in the next 13 spots ... all before 35th, overall.
This injury, and the slight uncertainty surrounding the return date, has me pushing Sale behind all of those names except for Kluber. Since all the players are so tightly-packed when healthy, the loss of even one-to-three starts is enough to slide Sale outside the top five at SP. And, as we all know, the lefty will always have the looming threat of that long-feared arm injury that everyone has been predicting since the dawn of Sale's first MLB appearance.
Back to Being a BrewerLast week in this space, I brought up the name of Francisco Rodriguez. With no team for 2015, K-Rod was still going just outside the top 200. A good landing spot would push him up 20-25 spots. Well, he found that good landing spot by landing in the same place as 2014, Milwaukee.
Rodriguez is not as ancient as you might think. He just turned 33 in January and is coming off a very strong season that saw him wrap up 44 saves, with a WHIP under 1, and a more than a strikeout per inning.
But ... His ERA was over 3 because of a silly high HR/FB rate of nearly 16%. His line drive-rate was also scary, standing at 32%. What we saw was a pitcher who was very good when he hit his spots. But, if he missed by a smidge, he got lit.
At this moment, he's coming off as the 25th reliever off the board. I think he should be between 18-20.
Belittling Bailey
For each of the past three seasons, I've made every effort to find a spot for Homer Bailey on my fantasy teams. Not this year.
Understand, this isn't because of the work he presented to us in '14. He crafted a ground ball rate over 50%. He also pushed his swinging rate percentage to 11%. Most of his other marks were all in line with his career efforts. He started out terribly, but then settled down to his usual solid standards. In fact, his final seven starts lasted an average of more than seven innings and he gave up just nine earned runs, to sport a 1.62 ERA in those games.
Unfortunately, those final seven games ran from June 29 to August 7. He didn't take a start over the final two months as he was shut down with a forearm injury that did not require surgery. It's that injury, though, that has me avoiding him for 2015.
I'm a big believer in forearm issues leading up the 'chain of command', and eventually, leading to elbow or shoulder woes. Bailey is already a step behind his rotation mates in camp, but to hear the Reds talk, all is looking grand in terms of his health. I'm not buying it and I wouldn't be surprised if he's headed to the surgeon by the time the All-Star break hits.
Right now, his ADP stands at 221, 55th at the SP spot. That's understandable. After all, he didn't have surgery, he had rest, and look at his career ... the guy takes the ball every five days. But, you might want to take a gander at the other pitchers around him on that ADP rundown - Jose Fernandez, Matt Cain, James Paxton, Francisco Liriano, and Derek Holland. Most of those were injured a season ago or, in the case of Liriano, there's a history of issues. They've all had surgeries. My prediction is that Bailey will affirm his standing with these hurlers by going under the knife and missing a good chunk of time.
Change Your Name and Come Up Lame
Not that he was on anyone's must-have list anyway, but now, you can officially toss Melvin Upton on the scrap heap. The Atlanta centerfielder beat Sale to the 'Injured Foot Club,' by getting a diagnosis of sesamoiditis in his left foot. The painful injury will knock him out for March and April and the Braves are hoping he's close to ready on May 1. Fantasy players can go ahead and drop him off their big board.
Upton is on his way to becoming one of the absolute worst free agent signings of all time. His numbers since coming to the National League are beyond trashy. Over the course of more than 1,000 plate appearances, the elder Upton has hit below the Mendoza Line (.198), struck out in over 35% of his at-bats, and hasn't cracked 20 steals in either season (he averaged 39 per season from '08-'12). His former game garnered just enough interest to make him a late-round flier (current ADP 358, 88th among OFs) before the injury, but now you can mothball him for your draft.
Interesting ...
Here are some random players whose current ADP status has caught my eye in the past week ...
• Robinson Cano is outside the top 20 overall (21st)
• Corey Dickerson (17th among OFs) is going ahead of his teammate, Carlos Gonzalez (19th among OFs)
• I love the value you can get with Gregory Polanco. He's outside the top 35 at his position and is going outside the first 10 rounds (130th overall) in 12-team set-up's.
• We talk constantly about all the depth that can be found at SP. Particularly, I'm a fan of the selection of arms to be found in ADP between 160 and 190. The names - Marcus Stroman, Andrew Cashner, Cliff Lee, Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly, Mat Latos, and Chris Archer. Those players are all being selected outside the top 35 within their own position. Each of them makes for an above-average SP3.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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