San Diego Padres:
Kevin Quackenbush (RP - SD) - Going into the 2014 season as a relatively unknown commodity, Kevin Quackenbush proved his worth down the stretch and is now in the conversation to be the primary set-up man for closer Joaquin Benoit. Quackenbush doesn't boast the typical indicative stats that you'd usually search for in a closer and for that reason, his overall outlook makes me nervous. Despite a below average swinging strike rate (9.3%) and chase rate (25.3%), Quackenbush managed to finish with a strikeout rate well above league average at 25.2%. His batted ball splits are also not ideal, with a very high line drive rate (26.6%) and a low 37.1 GB%. Joaquin Benoit has a history of shoulder problems and Quackenbush has to beat just Brandon Maurer and Shawn Kelley to have a clear path to save land this year. For this reason, he holds some value in mixed leagues but I'm not willing to go all in on him like I would in other "handcuff" situations like Brad Boxberger in Tampa or Adam Ottavino in Colorado.
Jedd Gyorko (2B - SD) - Let's talk about the curious case of Jedd Gyorko, the disappearing man who captured our hearts in 2013 but disappeared with them in 2014. So what can we expect from Gyorko in 2015? The versatile middle infielder with solid pop, a nice batting average, and multiple position eligibility in the first half of 2013 or the guy who slashed .162/.213/.270 in the first half of 2014? Maybe we can meet somewhere in the middle and feel confident thanks to his strong finish to the 2014 season. Now that he's 100% healthy and ready to go this spring, Gyorko needs to be a guy to consider as a late round flier thanks to his quality finish in the second half last season. After the all-star break, the Padres second baseman managed to hit .260/.347/.398 with a sparkling 27% line drive rate. In addition to the improvements in his batted ball profile, he also adjusted his approach at the plate to draw more walks and cut down on the strikeouts, resulting in an 11% improvement to his K%-BB% metric. Gyorko likely won't sniff the 20+ HRs he blessed us with in 2013 (his 16% HR/FB ratio that year was unsustainable at 6% more than league average), however, there is some upside to his batting average if he can continue hitting more line drives as opposed to flyballs. Don't overpay for him but don't immediately write him off either.
Kansas City Royals:
Danny Duffy (SP - KC) - Facing the Cubs on Tuesday, Danny Duffy drew the start are tossed 4 innings of one run ball but it wasn't without his rough spots. Duffy allowed 5 total baserunners on the day but he issued a key walk with bases loaded to Starlin Castro to force in his only run allowed. On the surface, Danny Duffy had a phenomenal stat line in 2014 and would seemingly be a nice upside arm to build around as he enters his age-26 season. Digging a bit deeper, it seems Duffy received quite a bit of favorable luck last year (namely in his 77% strand rate which wasn't supported by his below average 18.7% strikeout rate and his super-low .239 BABIP). Considering that he had a below average swinging strike rate of 7.3% last year paired with just a 26% chase rate, it's unlikely he will reach the strikeout rates he flashed in the minor leagues before undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery in 2012. Don't get trapped!
Brandon Finnegan (RP - KC) - Battling for a spot in the Royals bullpen, Finnegan did little to impress the team on Tuesday. Finnegan allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks over 2 innings pitched. With all the injuries to the Royals bullpen, KC is now forced to give Finnegan a long look in the relief role before ultimately decided whether they will send him back down to the Triple-A team to stay stretched out as a starter, or to possibly carve out a set-up role within the back-end of the Royals bullpen. Drafted in last year's rookie draft and rocketing to the big leagues in the post-season, Finnegan proved he can have value late in games. Finnegan's biggest weapon is the 10+ mph difference in his fastball and changeups and his ability to generate swing and misses (14% swinging strike rate in 2015). The Royals are loaded with bullpen help - Holland, Davis & Herrera - but Finnegan is a nice target in long-term keeper leagues.
Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant (3B - CHC) - What's a pre-season article without a blurb about Mr. Spring Training, Kris Bryant? On Tuesday, Bryant's agent, Scott Boras, issued some words of warning to the Cubs' owner Tom Ricketts if they choose to send the top prospect to the minors to begin the year. He told Fox Sports that Baseball's Collective Bargaining agreement won't be to blame if Bryant begins the year in the minor leagues but that Cubs' owner Tom Ricketts will be. "Cubs ownership has a choice" said Boras on Tuesday. "When someone says it's the system, no, it's a choice -- the choice of winning." Later in the day, Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein, seemingly shot back at Boras saying that the Cubs personnel decisions are based solely on a player's skill development and has nothing to do with contract status. Epstein believes Bryant needs to continue working on his defense in the minor leagues before getting the call. Regardless of the rhetoric, the fact remains that the Cubs can gain an extra year of control over Bryant if he remains in the minor leagues for at least 12 days at the beginning of the season. In an era where mega-contracts run rampant and player loyalty is at an all-time low, it's likely that the Cubs will value this extra year of control extremely highly. While Bryant very well might need more seasoning on defense, there's very little that he needs to do before checking off all the boxes on the offensive side of the game. Bryant has an average ISO in the minor leagues exceeding .300 and his 6 spring homeruns are twice as many as any other player. The biggest chink in his armor is an inflated strikeout rate at 28% at Triple-A last season but he has avoided issues by continuing to draw walks and has still been able to maintain a batting average around .300 at nearly every level. Expectations should be tempered but the excitement will undoubtedly reach a fever pitch as the time ticks closer to the regular season. I guarantee you this won't be our last blurb on Kris Bryant.
Jason Hammel (SP - CHC) - After two mediocre outings to begin Spring Training, Jason Hammel finally got back on track Tuesday versus the Royals. Hammel entered his 3rd spring start with a 10.80 ERA, 9 hits allowed and 3 walks over 5 innings pitched. Tuesday was a complete reversal, however, because the righty ended up breezing through 4 innings of work needing only 20 pitches, throwing all of them for strikes. It was an impressive outing for a player in need of a confidence boost. Hammel will fill one of the Cubs rotation spots this year and will try to replicate his performance from the first half of 2014. I'm doubtful he will be able to repeat the same type of season he had simply because the statistics show he benefitted from a fair amount of luck. Most of his underlying statistical indicators (swinging strike rate, contact rate, velocity, etc) were all in line with his recent averages but his .272 BABIP stands out as being quite favorable considering his LD% allowed was a high 21.8%. Since his career ERA sits closer to the mid-4.00's than the mid-3.00's where he finished last year, I'm expecting a fair amount of regression in 2015. Don't blindly buy last year's stats.
Around the League:
Alex Cobb (SP - TB) - Alex Cobb left Tuesday's game after experiencing tightness in his forearm. Oh boy, here we go. After the game, Cobb insisted that he didn't believe the issue was serious but The Tampa Bay Times is reporting that Cobb will start the season on the DL with tendonitis. Forearm tightness can sometimes be the first indicator that something else is going wrong within the arm, specifically the elbow, so hopefully rest will heal the issue and there will be no lingering effects. Losing Cobb in the Rays rotation would be devastating to Tampa but even more devastating to fantasy owners who are drafting him in the 6th round. Cobb has been a popular breakout candidate going into this season based on his positive strikeout and walk numbers as well as his ability to generate lots of groundballs. This injury is concerning enough that you need to consider that tendonitis is the best case scenario with him missing only a few weeks. Worst case scenario is structural damage and a doctor's appointment with a guy named Andrews. That sound you hear is his ADP plummeting from his previous position in the 6th round.
Carlos Rodon (SP - CWS) - Carlos Rodon hit a small speed bump in his quest to capture a temporary rotation spot for the White Sox to open the season. With Chris Sale expected to miss at least one start, some have speculated that the rookie Rodon will be able to claim a spot in the White Sox opening day rotation. On Monday he went 3 innings while yielding two runs, walking two and striking out three. David Peralta did most of the damage in the first inning but Rodon settled down and finished strong once again. With Chris Sale recovering nicely, the White Sox will probably opt to send Rodon down to delay his Super Two status despite boasting a major league ready arm right now. Control is the biggest question mark for the young lefty but his above average fastball and slider combo already generates a ton of swing and misses. Rodon has the potential to return the most value in 2015 of all prospect pitchers but with all prospects, sometimes the hype exceeds the actual results. Tread carefully and try not to keep too caught up with the pre-season prospect excitement.
Christian Yelich (OF - MIA) - Christian Yelich is quietly putting together a nice start to spring training by slashing .412/.524/.471 through 17 at-bats. Yelich has one of the best pure swings of any player in the game but unfortunately for fantasy owners, he remains committed to the mechanics of this approach. As a result, his groundball rate was a very high 61% last year and his FB rate was a meager 17.9%. However, when Yelich makes contact with the ball, he doesn't get cheated. According to ESPN's hit tracker, Yelich has an elite 106 MPH batted ball speed on his home runs with an average distance that's an even more impressive 418 feet. It's evident that when he gets lift on his batted balls, he has the ability to be a great power hitter. Considering the rest of his profile (above average swinging strike rate, walk rate, contact rate, and chase rate), there's a lot of breakout potential here. The question is whether it will happen in 2015 or beyond but a stronger Marlins lineup around him doesn't hurt his chances this year.
Jake McGee (RP - TB) - Jake McGee threw about twenty pitches off the mound on Tuesday as part of his rehab from offseason elbow surgery. The surgery itself was a simple arthroscopic procedure to move loose bodies from his elbow but he's still not going to be ready by the start of the season. With an expected return around the end of April or beginning of May, his stock is plummeting in most drafts this spring (while the stock of a personal favorite Brad Boxberger is rising). Despite missing several weeks of the season, McGee can still be a nice value if you grab him late in drafts. There's no guarantee that he will return to his closing role, especially with the addition of a new manager, but he certainly has the skill set to succeed if the team turns back to him when he returns. Last year, the lefty had an excellent 27% K%-B% ratio (league average is around 12.7%) and despite throwing fastballs 96% of the time, he continues to fool hitters with a 34% chase rate (league average is 31.3%) and an excellent contact rate of 73.9% (league average is 79.4%).
Evan Gattis (C - HOU) - Evan Gattis has been battling a wrist injury since this past weekend and he still hasn't been cleared to swing a bat. At this point, there's no reason to be overly concerned. However, anytime you're dealing with a power hitter with a wrist injury the situation can get murky very quick. Gattis has been tabbed by many as a nice breakout candidate as he moves to the outfield playing in cozy Minute Maid Park. Assuming he makes a return to action quickly, I'm buying into nice potential for Gattis in standard leagues, particularly in those where he will qualify as both Catcher and Outfield. The last two seasons, Gattis has posted HR/FB ratios around 18%, well above the league average and the typical power hitter. His batted ball speed on his homeruns nearly supports this type of ratio coming in at 104.5 MPH. He's not going to win any awards for being patient and he's certainly a player to avoid in leagues where strikeouts are penalized, but in most standard formats he has the chance to be one of the most productive catcher-eligible players thanks to his high projected workload.
Jacob deGrom (SP - NYM) - deGrom looked to be in regular season form on Tuesday when he tossed 5 scoreless innings while striking out six. In his first major league season, deGrom flashed a strikeout rate much higher than any rate he showed in the minor leagues. Normally that fact would make me shy away from a player but his strikeouts were actually supported by an above average 11.7% swinging strike rate and solid 75.4% contact rate. Even more promising was the fact that his strikeout rate actually picked up in the second half and was an eye-popping 36.9% in September. On the downside, his HR/FB ratio was just 6.1% so it's likely there will be some regression to his ERA versus the stellar season he posted last year but I firmly believe that deGrom will hold substantial value again in 2015.
Marco Gonzales (SP - STL) - Gonzales helped his case in his bid for the final spot in the St. Louis rotation on Tuesday by throwing 4 ⅔ innings while allowing just one run. Gonzales is battling Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia for the last spot for the Cardinals after showing quite well in a cup of coffee last season. Through two starts this spring, Gonzales has tossed 10 ⅔ innings with just one run allowed. Boasting a solid strikeout rate and above average walk rate in the minors, Gonzales struggled with his control in 2014. Control continues to be the biggest issue for him as he's posted just a 6/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio this spring and last year he threw pitches in the zone 5% less frequently than the league average starting pitcher. For fantasy, Gonzales remains nothing but a deep-league flier (think 50-round NFBC or NL-only) until he actually locks up a starting job.
Kennys Vargas (1B - MIN) - Kennys Vargas launched his 3rd homerun of the spring on Tuesday, knocking in three more runs. Lacking power in the lineup, Vargas will likely fill the role as designated hitter in the clean-up spot for the Twins. Vargas has excellent power, boasting batted ball speed on his homeruns of 104.8 last year and will benefit greatly from a favorable lineup position. His home park isn't ideal but he's a nice candidate for 20+ homeruns and is a cheap source of power late in drafts this spring. Outside of the pop, he has little to offer in the other standard 5x5 categories with little-to-no speed and limited upside in batting average. Still, you could do worse for a corner infield slot or backup first baseman.
Koji Uehara (RP - BOS) - Koji Uehara is expected to miss the next few games as he recovers from a hamstring strain that he suffered during running exercises on Tuesday. The Red Sox closer went on a wild roller coaster last season, beginning the year attempting to continue his record breaking scoreless streak and ending the year amid job security issues. Uehara's biggest problem a year ago arose from the homerun ball. Of the 18 total earned runs he allowed last year, 11 of the runs were tied directly to homeruns allowed. Uehara also experienced a very concerning increase in his line drive % from 11.3% in 2013 to 22.6% in 2014. Looking towards 2015, there's some upside to these numbers thanks to an inflated 14.3% HR/FB ratio that should come back down closer to 10% (9.5% career avg) but given his age and the unfavorable batted ball profile, I'm pretty concerned going into the draft season.
Adam Lind (1B - MIL) - Recently signed first baseman Adam Lind has been limited this spring training due to a back injury. Coming over from Toronto, Lind is expected to fill one-half of the platoon at first base for the Brewers this year (versus RHP). While he struggles mightily against lefties, Lind can be quite productive against RHP and holds a career .369 wOBA versus righties throughout his career. A league average wOBA is right around .320 so a wOBA sitting anywhere in the .365 or above range is considered excellent. In addition to that, Miller Park should play well for Lind this season and will hopefully be a nice boost to his HR totals as it ranks as the 5th most favorable park for left-handed batters in terms of total homeruns. He's a nice cheap option at the corner in NL-only leagues.
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