Twins
Brian Dozier's Power/speed Combo
Brian Dozier has been on the fantasy map for a couple seasons now, with an 18/14 HR/SB season in 2013 followed up with a 23/21 pairing in 2014. Now headed into 2015, Dozier is a top-five commodity at second base, offering a power/speed combo that not many others in baseball - let alone at second base - can offer. In fact, only five players in all of baseball reached that arbitrary 20/20 standard, and Dozier was the only second basemen. Dozier also added 112 runs in 2014, and had 71 RBI.
There are a few signs that 2015 could see a bit of a slip in production, though. For one, Dozier never had a power pedigree in the minor leagues, and will turn 28 early this season despite only having been in the league a few years. Dozier also sported an above-average 11.3 HR/FB rate, which may seem stable, but when considering that his home runs averaged just 376.8 feet (second lowest according to ESPN home run tracker) there are some definite concerns about whether 20 home runs if a feasible total in 2015. Ten of his home runs were considered "Just Enough" and his home stadium is far from forgiving for home run hitters. Dozier's spot at the top of the lineup should insure plenty of chances to score runs, but 15/15 is a far safer bet than 20/20 in 2015.
Kennys Vargas Still Should Start
Vargas broke onto the scene in 2014, showing some pop and hitting for average with a body type that had Twins' fans flashing back to David Ortiz's days as a Twin. There are some signs that a decline in his statistics, average in particular, could be trending down, though. Vargas sported a BABIP of .340 last year, quite high, especially for a 275-pound guy who only hits line drives 18.6 percent of the time. As such, it's not a surprise that Fantistics projection system sees Vargas sporting a .240 average in 2015, a projection that seems reasonable. As far as power is concerned, Vargas also had a lofty 17.0 HR/FB rate in those 234 plate appearances in 2014, but given his strength that figure may not drop off too much. There were some worries when 1500 ESPN's Patrick Reusse reported that Vargas could start the season in Triple A with Eduardo Escobar beginning the season as the DH. There have been no other sources to suggest this, however, and Vargas will likely start the season as the team's DH.
Eduardo Escobar Spring Fraud
Speaking of Eduardo Escobar, he's a perfect case of Spring Training creating buzz about a player who will likely be forgotten once the season starts. With Reusse's story, along with his strong Spring Training statistics (.302 average with three home runs and 13 RBI) there has been a little bit of buzz for Escobar in deeper leagues, or AL-Only leagues. Friendly reminder that this is a hitter who has a career triple slash of .255/.300/.365. If you're truly desperate for a decent average, Escobar did hit .275 last season, but given his more-than-likely utility role, and the fact that selling out for average is a fool's errand most of the time, Escobar doesn't have any real value in 2015.
Athletics
Drew Pomeranz: Roller Coaster Spring
Drew Pomeranz has crammed a lot of ups and down into the first few weeks of the 2015 spring. Pomeranz began the spring lighting up the competition, with a 15:3 strikeout to walk ratio in his first three starts, which totaled nine innings. He gave up only two earned runs across those three starts and was garnering buzz for a middle of the rotation spot once the season started. Then in his most recent start, Pomeranz labored through 2.2 innings, still getting four strikeouts, but giving up his first home run of the spring, and as many runs as he had the previous three starts (2), and even topping his walk total from the first three starts (3) in his fourth start (4). There were also rumors that circulated that the A's might try to have Pomeranz spend some time in the minor leagues at some point this season because of his service time accrued to date. However, given the fact that he first debuted in 2011, and the he is only 11 days over two years of service time, the hip issues are the more pressing matter - and even the hip issues aren't serious at this point in time.
What is worrisome is that despite Pomeranz's sparkling 2.35 ERA in limited time for the A's last year, he sported a FIP of 3.77, thanks to a .244 opponent BABIP and 82.1 LOB%, both severely inflated numbers. If you want to buy into Pomeranz's spring success paired with his previous high pedigree in the minors than you may believe he's turned a corner, but the numbers don't suggest the same.
Jesse Hahn in the rotation?
Hahn went 5.1 innings on Friday, giving up one run while striking out three. Hahn now sports a 3.06 ERA this spring, and is helping his case for a spot in the A's rotation to start the season. Hahn has flashed signs of potential throughout his young career, and the biggest issue seems to be his health. Hahn has been healthy this spring, and, personally, I like him even more than another injury-prone A's pitcher - Scott Kazmir. Hahn had a K/9 of 8.59 last year and is still only 25 years old. He may not have the track record of Kazmir, but he's also going for half the price of Kazmir in AL-Only leagues. In standard leagues he's going undrafted and is certainly a strong spot start candidate, and if he starts hot is worth a roster spot.
Billy Burns: Burn baby burn
With an excellent spring, Burns has thrown his hat into the ring for a starting spot in the A's outfield this season. If Burns does get a starting spot, he would immediately become strong waiver wire pick up, as his speed alone would make him a tempting pick up in any league. Burns has four steals already this spring, and stole 57 bases across all levels in 2014. This was far from a fluke, as Burns stole 74 bases in Double A and Triple A combined in 2013. Of course, Burns would not be reaching base at the same clip as those Double and Triple A stints if he was to get regular playing time for the A's, but even half of that production, say 30 steals, would have a lot of value in most leagues. The biggest question is whether Burns can contribute enough with the bat to make it worth a spot in the A's lineup. This spring has helped, but he looked pretty hopeless in the higher levels last season, going for 1-for-6 in the majors, and a far more predictive 21-for-109 at Triple A. He is helped out by an ability to draw walks, but there still hasn't been word on whether the A's trust his bat at a major league, and they will more than likely want Burns to fine-tune his swing in the minors a bit longer. He's definitely one to keep an eye on moving forward, though.
Around the League
Mookie Betts (OF-BOS): If Betts keeps this up much longer, there's going to be a shrine for the guy outside of Fenway by the All-Star break. Bettts hit his second home run of the spring, and raised his average to .487 in the process. Betts burst onto the scene last year with a .291/.368/.444 triple slash, backed up with a 20.9 line drive rate and 8.2 HR/FB rate that shows signs of a potentially strong sleeper candidate if he wasn't currently being hyped as such by any and every fantasy outlet. If/when Pedroia misses time, Betts could also gain 2B eligibility which would only help to boost his value. Betts is a hot commodity at this point, but with good reason.
Danny Salazar (SP-CLE): Salazar was optioned to the minors on Friday, where he will fine-tune his stuff, presumably the first guy to get the call up to the majors should injury or inefficiency strike the Indians' rotation. This obviously hurts Salazar's value a lot. Salazar has all the "stuff" in the world, but is struggling to put it together once again this spring, with a 8.18 ERA, and another three unearned runs. At this point Salazar simply can't be trusted to deserve the hype he gets.
Julio Teheran (SP-ATL): Teheran got the win on Friday, going 5.2 innings, allowing only two runs, but walking more guys (4) than he struck out (3). Teheran's ERA now sits at 5.79 for spring and he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 11:8 for the spring. Teheran is a bit worrisome even outside of his lackluster spring. Teheran's FIP has been higher than his ERA both full seasons, and while some guys can keep up that charade for a while, it usually comes back to haunt the pitcher sooner than later. Teheran also saw his K/9 slip from 8.24 to 7.57 from 2013 to 2014, and his velocity dropped about one mile per hour. All of these factors, along with a Braves' offense that is going to be dreadful, mean Teheran won't be worth his draft slot this season.
Daniel Murphy (2B-NYM): The Mets suggested that Daniel Murphy could begin the season on the DL on Friday, an obvious hit to Murphy's value. Murphy has been struggling with a hamstring injury, one that if it isn't given the proper time to heal could sap any of the speed value Murphy was going to retain in 2015. Murphy already saw his steals drop from 23 in 2013 to 13 in 2014, and that number could well be even lower in 2015. Murphy is always going to be productive in the average category, but if he isn't stealing bases, his value plummets, as his home run production is pedestrian, and while he scores a decent number of runs, if he is going to be out to start the season, that number will obviously drop as well. For those who haven't drafted, Murphy potentially drops four or five 2B spots (depending on how bullish you were on Murphy to start), and those who already own Murphy should be eyeing an Asdrubal Cabrera (who just got named the official starter)-type.
Jordan Zimmermann (SP-WAS): Zimmermann had a quality start against the Cardinals on Friday, going six innings, allowing just one run, and notching four strikeouts. Doesn't it seem like that Zimmermann's line every time he goes out there? Zimmermann is about as consistent a fantasy pitcher as you'll find, with the range in his ERAs for the last four being from 2.66-3.25. The even better news is that the 2.66 ERA is the most recent, and he had a 2.68 FIP to boot. Zimmermann even boosted his K/9 to a career-high 8.20 last season, and is an absolute stud. He's not the sexiest name out there for some reason (probably the limited strikeouts before last season), but he's a fantasy ace, no doubt.
Justin Verlander (SP-DET): Verlander left his start Friday with triceps cramps, and while the injury itself may not be overly worrisome, Verlander stock is way down regardless. Verlander is living proof that every fantasy league needs one guy who follows baseball only well enough to recognize the name and think of vintage Verlander. For the serious fantasy players, the warning signs are flashing bright red. His fastball velocity has dropped every season since 2009, and his K/9 rate bottomed out in 2014 at a Kyle Lohse-esque 6.95. Even though Verlander's FIP was "just" 3.74 compared to his 4.54 ERA in 2014, he is certainly trending the wrong way, and unless you're a slugger in the 90s and early 00s (cough, cough) those obvious aging trends are hard to reverse.
Michael Pineda (SP-NYY): Pineda had a nice clean line of: 5 IP 5 H 0 R 0 BB 5K on Friday, getting the win over Philadelphia. Pineda has a sparkling 1.32 ERA this spring, and is striking out well over a batter an inning (17 Ks in 13.2 IP). When Pineda was healthy in 2014, he looked excellent with an ERA of 1.89. He was helped in part by a .233 opponent BABIP and an 80.4 LOB%, but his FIP was still 2.71. The biggest worry was a deflated K/9 that sat at 6.96, a far cry from his 9.11 K/9 during his 2011 season that was his last action prior to 2014, but that looks much better this spring. Of course, the big worry with Pineda is his health. As low as he is going in standard drafts right now, though, he's worth a flier since his ceiling is quite high. In deeper leagues, or AL-Only leagues, he may not be worth the risk since you would be relying on him much heavier.
Jose Bautista (OF-TOR): Bautista hit his fifth home run of the spring on Friday, a solo blast that brought his slashes for the spring up to .323/.432/.806. Bautista is clearly a first-round stud, so the question with him is how early to take him, and how does he compare to the other guys taken in the first round. The most obvious comparison is teammate Edwin Encarnacion who is typically ranked just a hair below Bautista. The two have very similar batted ball profiles, with Encarnacion swapping a few Bautista line drives for fly balls instead. Encarnacion is actually the younger player (34 vs. 32), and outside of last year has a slightly better health track record. The two are almost indiscernible, and in leagues that reward OBP, Bautista has the edge, but in standard scoring, I might flip the two, and pick Encarnacion instead of his Blue Jay teammate.
Taijuan Walker (SP-SEA): Walker looks like the heavy frontrunner for the fifth spot for the Mariners, and he has deserved it this spring, with 18 shutout innings and 19 strikeouts to boot this spring. Walker has been a trendy pick late in drafts this spring, and with his pedigree and spring there is good reason for the hype. In limited action in 2014 Walker had a somewhat lucky 2.61 ERA (81.3 LOB%, 3.68 FIP), but his strikeout rate is excellent, and in that ballpark he may well be able to outproduce his FIP again in 2015. Buy Walker stock now.
Mark Trumbo (OF-LAA): Look for Trumbo as a strong power sleeper in 2015. In just 88 games, Trumbo hit 14 home runs, and did so while not being healthy the whole time. Trumbo played at least 144 games in each of his previous three full seasons, with his power trending upwards during that time (29-32-34 home run in 2011-2013). The move to Chase Field was supposed to continue that trend in 2014, and while he's never going to do wonders for your batting average, look for that home run total to bounce back into the 30s in 2015, as Trumbo is an outside shot for the NL home run crown.
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