Opening Day is a hard time to find pitchers to stream, as most teams are sending out their ace and most aces aren't available on the waiver wire. However, several teams this year will be starting their season with pitchers that are unowned in most fantasy leagues, either because they are not fortunate enough to have a legitimate ace, or due to injuries or other factors. I decided to go through the list of projected Opening Day starters that are available in most leagues, and see which of them could make good streaming options for Opening Day, as well as what their value could be going forward. (Okay, the main reason I wrote this article was as an excuse to write about Bartolo Colon, so I'll start with him.)
Bartolo Colon, SP, NYM
Although the Mets have two starters, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, who are owned in all fantasy leagues (and would have had a third with Zach Wheeler), they apparently couldn't resist the urge of having a roundish 40-year-old who won 15 games last year start on Opening Day. Colon will face the Nationals in Washington on Monday, and he may be catching them at the right time. The Nats should normally have a potent lineup, but they will be without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and probably Jason Werth to begin the season, and Bryce Harper is the only lefty regular in their lineup, so it would not be unreasonable to start Colon on Monday. Colon has excelled with his BB-rate over the past few years, posting three consecutive seasons with a BB/9 around 1.3 and can therefore be helpful in the WHIP category, but his low strikeout totals limit his value. In general, Colon struggles against lefties with a career 1.33 HR/9 against them (compared to 0.89 HR/9 against righties) although he had better luck last season thanks to a 6.0 HR/FB% against left-handers. It would be hard to justify using Colon every start due to his lack of K's and mediocre ERA, but he could be a decent streaming option against weaker lineups that are prominently right-handed.
Henderson Alvarez, SP, MIA
Alvarez will be the Marlins Opening Day starter in 2015 thanks to his 2.65 ERA last season and the fact that Jose Fernandez is still on the DL. His low strikeout rates (career 4.78 K/9) make him a good candidate for regression, and his spring performance (9 K's in 19.0 IP) hasn't given any reason to think that will change. However, Alvarez could continue to succeed without the strikeouts, thanks to his high groundball rate, low walk rate, and especially his favorable home park. In 2014, Alvarez posted a 1.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home compared to a 3.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. In two years with Miami, he has only allowed 3 HR's in 148 IP at Marlins Park, making him a valid streaming option whenever he pitches at home. His matchup this Monday couldn't get much better as the Marlins host the (projected) weak-hitting Braves, just don't expect Alvarez to rack up too many strikeouts.
Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
Despite going 8-11 with a 5.34 ERA in 2014, Buchholz will be the Red Sox Opening Day starter, as Boston currently lacks a true ace. It is hard to trust Buchholtz after last season's disaster, and while his xFIP of 4.04 projects some positive regression, it also marks the 6th time in seven years that his xFIP was over 4.00. He has pitched well this spring, however, with 22 K's in 19 IP. While you don't want to read too much into Spring stats, it is interesting to note that in 2013, Buchholtz struck out 22 in 22 IP en route to an 0.79 spring ERA, and that ended up being the best season of his career. He has a good matchup on Monday facing the aging Phillies, so he could be a good streaming option for Opening Day. At this point, Buchholtz should still be played on a start by start basis, but if he puts together a string of strong starts, he may be worth holding onto.
Josh Collmenter, SP, ARI
Collmenter will start Opening Day for the Diamondbacks after a solid 2014 in which he posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has bounced around between the rotation and bullpen so far in his young career, but right now he's locked in to Arizona's rotation. In his career as a starter, he has a mediocre 6.06 K/9 which has led to an xFIP of 4.17. Nevertheless, Collmenter has managed to maintain an ERA in the mid-3.00's thanks to a .271 career BABIP and 8.4 HR/FB%. Part of this is due to his high IFFB% (13.2%), but it may still be too early to tell if he can continue outpitching his peripherals on a regular basis. He has a sizeable lefty/righty split (1.30 WHIP against lefties vs. 1.02 against righties) so he may be worth a flier against right-handed heavy lineups, but the Giants, whom he will face on Monday, don't fall into that category as their lineup is likely to feature six left-handed bats.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, TEX
With Yu Darvish out for the season, Gallardo will start Opening Day for the Rangers as he has done several times for the Brewers. Despite a career low 3.51 ERA last season, Gallardo's FIP hovered close to 4.00 for the third straight year, and he saw his K% drop for the 5th consecutive year to a below average 17.9% in 2014. Moving to the American League to a team that plays in a hitter's park and whose catcher is a lot less experienced than Milwaukee's Jonathon Lucroy isn't going to make things easier. Gallardo's 10.13 ERA this spring, as well as his 7:6 K:BB ratio, aren't particularly encouraging either. Pitching in Oakland on Monday may be one of Gallardo's better matchups this season, but keeping him on your roster throughout the year is not likely to help your ERA or WHIP totals.
Drew Hutchison, SP, TOR
With Marcus Stroman out for the season, Hutchison draws the Opening Day start for the Blue Jays. His matchup against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium is not a particularly good one. First of all, he has struggled against lefties; lefties had a .353 wOBA against Hutchison last year and hit 17 of the 23 HR's he allowed. Meanwhile, the Yankees lineup could potentially feature 9 left-handed hitters. Secondly, the short right field porch in Yankee stadium is a scary thought for a flyball pitcher like Hutchison (45.2% FB%, 4th highest in MLB), especially against all of those left handed batters. In general, Hutchison certainly has promise, as he did strike out 184 in 184.2 IP last year, but he has to show that he can keep his ERA under 4.00 before becoming a regular on fantasy teams.
Kyle Kendrick, SP, COL
With Jorge de la Rosa battling a groin injury, Kendrick has been tabbed as the Rockies Opening Day starter in Milwaukee. Kendrick earned this honor based on, well, I guess the fact that he's made over 30 starts in each of the past two seasons. He has a career ERA of 4.42 and while his K-rate has improved somewhat over the last few years, it still has remained well below average. Kendrick has never posted an xFIP under 4.00 for a season, and this is all before making Coors Field his new home. Don't let the Opening Day start fool you regarding Kendrick. The answer is no.
Kyle Lohse, SP, MIL
Yovanni Gallardo started the previous five openers for Milwaukee, but with Gallardo now in Texas, it will be Lohse on the hill Opening Day against the Rockies. Fantasy owners aren't crazy about Lohse mostly due to his mediocre strikeout totals, but he really has turned his career around over the past few years. From 2001-2010, Lohse posted a 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 2.77 BB/9 and .305 BABIP. From 2011-2014, he has compiled a 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.82 BB/9 and .269 BABIP. It seems that much of Lohse's turnaround can be tied to his ability to get hitters to chase as he has a 30.9% O-Swing% over his last four seasons compared to 21.8% over his first ten. While he should continue to post good ratios, his K-rate hasn't really improved much, making him not much more than a streaming candidate. Monday's matchup is not exactly favorable for Lohse, as the Rockies have a strong lineup that features a number of left-handed hitters, and as of now, it looks like Lohse may have the rare misfortune of having to face Troy Tulowitzky and Carlos Gonzalez in the same game. Although Monday's game will not be played in Colorado, Miller Park isn't exactly pitcher friendly either, so this may not be the best opportunity for Lohse to be deployed.
