Wei-Yin Chen -Orioles-SP
Chen went 5 innings and gave up 3 ER on 11 H, 0 BB, and 6 K in the win against the Astros. Chen has exceeded expectations so far in 2015. He has a 3.13 ERA over 54.2 IP. However, his 4.19 SIERA suggests that the good times might not keep coming. Chen is benefiting from an extremely low .234 BABIP. Chen is getting more flyballs, but he is not missing a ton of bats (8.4% SwStrk), therefore his BABIP should regress back towards his career average, which is around .300. When that happens we should see a spike in his ratio stats like ERA and WHIP. Chen has a decent matchup next time out against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Josh Donaldson-Blue Jays-3B
Josh Donaldson was 2-3 with a HR (10), 3 R, 1 RBI, and 1 BB in the win against the White Sox. Donaldson is slashing .300/.363/.533. He is approaching that superstar 3-4-5 triple slash line. Donaldson has been just as expected for the Blue Jays. Donaldson has been hitting leadoff or second, which is going to boost his run scoring potential, but it is also going to limit his run production. Either way, Donaldson is a stud, who is enjoying the hitter friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.
Shane Greene-Tigers-SP
Shane Greene went 5.2 IP and gave up 4 ER on 8 H, 0 BB, and 4 K in the loss to the Athletics. Greene is sporting a 4.27 ERA over 59 IP. Greene started off hot and then cooled off, but had thrown three straight quality starts before today. Greene has changed the way he is mixing his pitches. In 2014, he started throwing his slider more and his change-up less and this resulted in an increase in strikeouts, but in 2015 he has used his slider less and change-up more. This has resulted in a drop in his SwStrk from 10.1% to 7.7%. It has looked like Greene has committed to pitch to contact and let his defense play behind him. Until he pick ups the strikeout rate, he will be nothing more than a league average starter. So keep an eye on his slider usage and K%, because if they change, he could see a boost in value.
DFS Value Plays
Ryan Raburn-Indians-OF
Ryan Raburn is a lefty masher and gets to face off against Wandy Rodriquez. I know Wandy has thrown well this year, but I am still going to target the soft tossing left-hander. Raburn owns a career .349 wOBA and 117 wRC+ against LHP and will more than likely be hitting 4th or 5th. Combine his lineup spot+platoon advantage+price and you have a great value play on Tuesday. Fanduel Value: $2,200
Clay Buchholz-Red Sox-SP
Clay Buchholz surface stats would not suggest that he is a good play on Tuesday, but if you dig deeper, there is a lot to like. Buchholz is striking out 9.85 K/9, while lowering his walk rate to 2.55. Buchholz has been pitching well lately and his 3.14 SIERA backs that up. He gets to face off against the Twins who have struggled against right-handed pitching. They have a .285 wOBA and 79 wRC+ against right-handers, which puts them in the bottom five of the league. Buchholz makes for an excellent play on Tuesday. Fanduel Value: $8,000
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