Good morning everyone! Each weekend, we publish our free analysis of the daily plays position-by-position. If you haven't already tried out Daily Fantasy Baseball, now is the perfect time to take it for a test spin. The beauty of Daily Fantasy is the short-term time commitment (one-day games) and the opportunity to win real money fast. To help aid you in the lineup construction process, below is a free sample of the type of daily content that is published over at Fantistics' sister site, MyFantasyFix. I always recommend starting to build your roster around your favorite pitcher of the day and fill out the rest of the lineup spots based on relative value-to-cost. To make this easier, below you'll find our top plays, value plays, and cheap (or punt) plays.Use this as a guide as you set your lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. Please also tune in to our show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 10AM-1PM ET on weekend mornings as we discussed values once lineups are announced.
Follow me on Twitter @MichaelWaldo and tweet any DFS questions you might have leading up to roster lock. I'll help you out on Twitter and will mention it on-air during our show on Sirius XM.
Vegas Run Totals - Offenses to Target:
Rangers: 5.02
Astros: 4.80
Red Sox: 4.48
Rockies: 4.54
Diamondbacks: 4.30
Vegas Lines- Pitchers to Target:
Bumgarner: -200
Wada: -165
R. Hernandez: -145
Colon: -130
Weather Concerns:
Royals @ Cubs: While the rain has moved out of the area, a cold front blew in and it'll be cooler temperatures with the wind blowing in from left field. I still like a lot of the Cubs bats today but don't expect a lot of home runs.
Marlins @ Mets: The forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain in the last hour of the game window with showers continuing for most of the night. At this point, I'm not overly concerned about this game.
Flyball Hitters (>40%) vs Flyball Pitchers (>40%) w/ wOBA exceeding .315 since 2013:
Brandon Belt
Nelson Cruz
Kyle Seager
Ian Kinsler
Yoenis Cespedes
Evan Longoria
Quality Fastball Hitters vs Heavy Fastball Pitchers (>60%):
Miguel Cabrera (wFB/c 1.94)
Kris Bryant (wFB/c 2.61)
Paul Goldschmidt (wFB/c 2.28)
Joey Votto (wFB/c 1.82)
Jose Abreu (wFB/c 2.19)
Shin-Soo Choo (wFB/c 2.10)
Jorge Soler (wFB/c 2.50)
Randall Grichuk (wFB/c 1.88)
Quality Slider Hitter vs Heavy Slider Pitcher (>25%):
Hanley Ramirez (wCT/c 2.37)
Quality Cutter Hitters vs Heavy Cutter Pitchers (>25%):
Yadier Molina (wCT/c 2.56)
Peter Bourjos (wCT/c 2.68)
Quality Curveball Hitters vs Heavy Curveball Pitchers (>25%):
Alex Rodriguez (wCB/c 2.11)
Quality Changeup Hitters vs Heavy Changeup Pitchers (>25%):
Adam Lind (wCH/c 2.87)
Stephen Vogt (wCH/c 2.69)
Ryan Braun (wCH/c 1.90)
Tyler Flowers (wCH/c 3.43)
Pitching:
Top Play:
Madison Bumgarner vs ATL - There's a lot to like about Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. The Braves have the 3rd lowest wOBA vs their opponent's handedness on the day's slate, and the Braves have a high 14.3% K-BB% against LHP on the season. Bumgarner is also the heaviest favorite of the day. Leading up to Saturday's game, the Braves had been averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last 8 games. He's worth paying up for and building around in cash games.
David Price @ LAA - Another expensive option but another quality option is David Price. A favorite despite pitching on the road, Price has actually fared significantly better in his road starts than his home starts this season. Opposing batters rarely hit Price for much power with lefties generating an OPS of just .604 and righties hitting .677 since 2013.
Multi-Pitcher Sites:
Drew Hutchison @ MIN - Drew Hutchison provides nice salary relief on DraftKings at just $7,500 but he has big time upside facing a week Minnesota lineup in what will be a favorable park shift for Hutchison. Hutchison fools right-handed batters more easily than lefties, with righties having an 18% K-BB% rate against him the last 2 seasons. The Twins are lacking big bats right now and their two most effective hitters are both right-handed (Plouffe and Dozier). The Twins also have the highest strikeout rate vs their opponent's handedness out of all the teams playing on Sunday.
Danny Salazar @ SEA - Too inconsistent to trust on a one-pitcher site, Salazar is the perfect complementary arm on a two-pitcher website. Priced at $8,500 on DK, Salazar has huge strikeout upside against a Mariner's team with the 3rd highest strikeout rate against opposing right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have just a .296 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Bartolo Colon vs MIA - Nobody said it was going to be pretty but at $6,900, you can do a lot worse than Bartolo Colon against the Marlins on Sunday. Pitching in the comforts of Citi Field, Colon has baffled the Marlins the last 2 times they have come to Queens by limiting them to a run in each game with 7 strikeouts in each performance. The Marlins offense has been sputtering lately and as a team, they have only posted a .303 wOBA against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of the year.
Tournament Play:
Chris Tillman vs TB - Over the last two seasons, Chris Tillman has been an extremely effective pitcher while at home, pitching to just a .284 wOBA (a difference of .101 wOBA vs his home statistics) against opposing teams. The Rays have a 20.8% strikeout rate against right-handed opposing starting pitchers since the start of the season and their offense is generating an ISO of just .123 against righties. He's just $6,600 on DraftKings and makes for a nice contrarian tournament play.
Catcher:
Top Plays:
Evan Gattis vs John Danks - Home run alert! Hot off a brutal start in Toronto, John Danks is back in action in Houston against the Astros. That immediately puts all of Houston's right-handers in play on Sunday. At $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings, he's certainly priced appropriately for the day but at the same time, he's also one of the most likely catchers to hit a home run. The Astros have the 4th most homerun friendly park in the AL for right-handed bats and Gattis has a .553 wOBA over the last week.
Stephen Vogt vs Adam Warren - Any time Stephen Vogt faces a right-handed pitcher he's in play, especially when it's a weak right-hander like Adam Warren. Vogt has been extremely hot in the last week with a .438 wOBA and if you can't quite pay up for Gattis but want a top catching option, he's slightly cheaper across most daily sites. Vogt is averaging0.61 fantasy points per plate appearance on FanDuel and 1.84on DraftKIngs against right-handed pitchers since 2013, both marks are very good.
Value Plays:
Derek Norris vs Jeff Locke - There are a lot of inexpensive catchers today in pretty good spots. Derek Norris is my favorite play at $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings going up against left-hander Jeff Locke. After slumping for a bit, Norris has found his stroke again recently and has a phenomenal .944 OPS against left-handers since 2013.
Yadier Molina vs Brett Anderson - Yadier Molina's power is hanging out with Robinson Cano's and as a result, Molina is minimum priced at the catcher position. Even without that power, he's still in play in DFS simply as a punt play option. Going into Sunday, he has hits in all but 5 games in the month of May (although just 5 XBH, as well). Regardless, you can do a lot worse for $2,200 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, I'd rather punt with a guy like Brayan Pena at $2,700 or even Wellington Castillo at $2,900.
First Baseman:
Top Play:
Paul Goldschmidt vs Tyler Wagner -Goldschmidt is an absolute elite play against the rookie Tyler Wagner and completely destroys right-handed pitching. Over the last 3 years he has managed a .935 OPS with a .399 wOBA vs RHP. Wagner has just 9 starts above the single-A level and now he's charged with facing one of the most fearsome hitters in the league. Right now the D-Backs/Brewers game is the highest game total on the slate and Goldschmidt leads the way as a core play if you can afford him. He's a hefty $5,200 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKIngs.
Miguel Cabrera vs Matt Shoemaker - As I mentioned earlier, Miggy is an excellent fastball hitter and he faces Matt Shoemaker who throws a boatload of fastballs. The Tigers hit right-handers really well and while the game total isn't exorbitant at 7.5, the Tigers are favored for the win. Cabrera has a .413 wOBA and .969 OPS against right-handers since 2013.
Anthony Rizzo vs Yordano Ventura - If you're focusing on a day-only slate, I really like Anthony Rizzo in a nice spot against Yordano Ventura. Ventura has already yielded 7 homeruns on the season and has allowed homeruns in all but 3 games this year. The cool temperatures and the wind blowing in from left field won't do Rizzo any favors but it should have less of an effect on him than if the wind were blowing in from right field. Even if he doesn't hit one out, he still has plenty of upside.
Other Top Play for consideration: Prince Fielder vs Joe Kelly
Value Plays:
Mike Napoli vs Wandy Rodriguez - Even though Texas isn't playing as hitter friendly as it had in the past, Mike Napoli is still a nice value play on FanDuel on Sunday at just $3,300. Napoli has a .543 wOBA over the last 7 days and against right-handed pitchers over the last 3 seasons Mike Napoli has a great .912 OPS. Wandy mainly throws fastballs and curveballs and Napoli is an above average hitter of both. Boston has the 3rd highest projected run total of the day so I like getting exposure to that lineup at a cheap price.
Joey Votto vs Tanner Roark - Speaking of falling prices, Votto is down to just $3,300 on FanDuel. That's a price point that's a steal for a guy like Votto who mashes right-handed pitching and is facing a right-hander who isn't particularly effective against left-handed batters (just a 6% K-BB% since 2013 and a .686 wOBA allowed).
Adam Lind vs Chase Anderson - Adam Lind has adapted quite well in his first season as a Brewer. He has been a signficiantly more effective hitter at home than on the road this year and is also a better hitter against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. On Sunday, he gets to face right-handed Chase Anderson at home in Miller Park. He's quite cheap at only $2,700 on FanDuel.
Second Base:
Top Play:
Dustin Pedroia vs Wandy Rodriguez - Given the price consideration, Dustin Pedroia is an excellent play at second base, particularly on FanDuel where he's only $3,200. Pedroia has been batting leadoff for the Red Sox over the last week and while he has historically not hit well in the first spot in the lineup, over the last 3 seasons he has had a wOBA of .366, .342, and now .393. He has an OPS of .836 against left-ha nders since 2013 and the Red Sox have the 3rd highest projected run total of the day. He's in a great position to score some runs on Sunday.
Jose Altuve vs John Danks - Altuve isn't your prototypical power guy but more importantly, he's a phenomenal on-base guy with a bunch of boppers hitting behind him against a home run prone John Danks. Altuve's price has dropped below $4K over at FanDuel and isn't a bad choice tomorrow, especially in 50/50s since Altuve carries a higher floor yet lower overall ceiling than other second base options.
Value Plays:
Neil Walker vs Odrisamer Despaigne - The switch hitting Walker actually hits better from the left-hand side, the same way he'll be hitting on Sunday against the Padres. He's reasonably priced at $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings and like Altuve, tends to make for a better 50/50 play than a tournament play since he rarely has huge games but has plenty of solid contests. He has a .809 OPS against right-handed pitching since 2013.
Logan Forsythe vs Chris Tillman - At only $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings, Forsythe is a tremendous value hitting cleanup for the Rays with a very favorable park shift playing in Baltimore. He has a solid .347 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and while most of his power has come against left-handed pitchers, he's a fine punt play at second given the good park shift and favorable lineup spot.
Third Base:
Top Play:
Kris Bryant vs Yordano Ventura - I mentioned it in my blurb about Rizzo but I'll mention it here too. I'm moderately worried about the weather in Wrigley with the low temperatures and a steady breeze blowing in from left field. Still, despite the unfavorable weather, I believe that Bryant is still a great option given the plus matchup against Yordano Ventura. I like to take weather into consideration slightly but I will rarely make a decision based solely on weather (excluding times when weather affects the playability of the game). In his short time in the majors, Bryant is averaging 2.13 points per plate appearance on DraftKings and is actually a "reasonable" $4,700.
Value Play:
Chris Davis vs Jake Odorizzi - Odorizzi is a much better pitcher at home than on the road and while he has managed to cut down on his homeruns considerably, Camden Yards is the most homerun friendly ballpark for left-handed batters and when you give up flyballs as frequently as Odorizzi, one is bound to leave the yard in Baltimore (especially when you consider that his 2.8% HR/FB ratio this year in unsustainable). He's not eligible at 3rd base on FanDuel and I prefer the other 1st base options over him but he's 3rd base eligible on DraftKings.
Alex Rodriguez vs Jesse Chavez - A-Rod is one of the few players with elite reverse splits. Since 2013, he has managed a wOBA of .387and an OPS of .917 against RHP. He loses some value in the shift in the ballpark and Chavez is a moderate groundball pitcher but A-Rod is a professional hitter and can hit anyone, anywhere.
Adrian Beltre vs Joe Kelly - Beltre remains severly underpriced and faces off against Joe Kelly in what should be another good opportunity for the Texas bats to remain hot. Beltre has a .358 wOBA and .829 OPS against right-handers sicne 2013 and he's an absolute elite curveball hitter with a pitch value of 3.72 wCB/c and the curveball is Kelly's second most frequently used pitch behind his fastball.
Justin Turner vs Carlos Martinez - The Juan Uribe trade opened the door for Turner to play everyday and he has seized the opportunity. He has a 7 game hit streak and he has been mostly hitting in the 5th spot for the Dodgers but moved up to the 2-hole on Saturday night. He's onmly $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKIngs.
Shortstop:
Top Play:
Jose Reyes vs Ricky Nolasco - Coming off back-to-back multi-hit performances, Reyes is still rather cheap at $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings. There aren't a lot of great options at shortstop but he's reasonably safe and his price point is hard to beat given him ceiling of production. He's an above average hitter against right-handed pitching and has a .333 wOBA over the last 3 years against right-handed pitching.
Value Plays:
Ben Zobrist vs Adam Warren - Zobrist doesn't have the upside you look for in tournament plays so he remains a value for cash games only but I don't mind him on Sunday. Zobrist has a .335 wOBA against right-handers since 2013 and I don't mind getting some exposure to the A's against Adam Warren.
Xander Bogaerts vs Wandy Rodriguez - At minimum price on FanDuel, Xander Boagaerts is extremely enticing play on Sunday as a salary relief option. Any time he faces a left-handed pitcher, he has to be a name to take under consideration evidenced by his .343 wOBA and .777 OPS against LHP the last 2 seasons. The lineup positioning hurts his value but playing him will give you some cheap exposure to the highest game total on the slate tomorrow.
Outfield:
Top Plays:
Joc Pederson vs Carlos Martinez - Given the price and the matchup, I absolutely love Joc Pederson against Carlos Martinez today. Getting the favorable split matchup against the right-handed Martinez, Pederson has 3 mutli-hit games over the last week and he's extraordinarily cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel at $3,900 and $3,400, respectively. Martinez has already allowed 5 homeruns to left-handed batters this season (just 98 batters faced) and has just a 20-to-13 strikeout-to-walk rate against them. Pederson is nearly a must-play for me today.
Andrew McCutchen vs Odrisamer Despaigne - He won't come as cheap as Pederson but he might be on an even hotter hit streak. Mutli-hit games in 4 of his 7 this last week with 2 homeruns and 6 RBI, McCutchen is scorching hot and draws a nice matchup against a pitcher who is struggling right now. McCutchen has great reverse splits against right-handed pitching, posting a .389 wOBA with a .902 OPS over the last 3 seasons.
George Springer vs John Danks - Well we saw what the Blue Jays right-handers did to John Danks earlier in the week and now it's time to see what the Astros can do. Right-handed hitters absolutely destroy danks, posting a cumulative .812 OPS against him since 2013 and that includes even the weak hiters. Springer has been seeing the ball much better lately and has historically fared well against lefties with an .841 OPS.
Value Plays:
Hunter Pence vs Julio Teheran - I want some exposure to the Giants today as they take on Julio Teheran away from Turner Field. Teheran struggles mightily on the road (.465 wOBA the last two seasons) and has looked particularly bad this year. Pence is very cheap on FanDuel but is averaging 3.1 FPPG over there this season and has historically averaged a .780 OPS against right-handed pitching and will be hitting in the heart of the Giants lineup.
Josh Hamilton vs Joe Kelly - Playing back home in Arlington and facing a pitcher like the righty Joe Kelly is a recipe for success. Add in his low $3,000 price tag on FanDuel and it's tough to pass him up today. He's a whole different playing now that he's back with the Rangers. Take advantage of the low price now before it goes up.
Giancarlo Stanton vs Bartolo Colon - It feels wrong to even include Stanton in this section but due to his recent struggles, his price has fallen considerably over the last couple of weeks. Facing a ground ball pitcher like Colon isn't ideal but he does have 5 hits and 2 homeruns against Colon in his career. The sample size is small at 8 games so I don't put a lot of weight into it but at the reduced price point and Stanton's track record for success against right-handed pitching, he's a nice source of value.
Anthony Gose vs Matt Shoemaker - Gose is a nice value hitting at the top of the Tigers lineup. As a team, the Tigers hit right-handed pitchers quite well so playing a place setter like Gose can be a nice source of points if he can get on base and get into scoring position for the heart of the Tigers batting order. He's just $3,000 on DraftKings.
Andre Ethier vs Carlos Martinez - Similar to my analysis for Pederson, Andre Ethier is also a nice play thanks to Martinez's struggle against left-handed bats. Ethier is just $3,000 on DraftKings and is $2,700 on FanDuel, making him a great source of salary relief. All 6 of Ethier's homeruns and all but 1of his other extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers and since 2013 he has managed an .819 OPS against them.
Josh Reddick vs Adam Warren - Adam Warren has a .355 wOBA against away from Yankee Stadium compared with a .255 wOBA against at home this season. On the other hand, Josh Reddick loves to hit right-handed pitching and is averaging .69 pts per PA against right-handed on FanDuel since 2013 and is absolutely crushing it at home this season with a .246 ISO and .452 wOBA. He's a great value option on FanDuel but is a bit more expensive on DraftKings.
Other values: Shin-Soo Choo vs Joe Kelly, Steve Pearce vs Jake Odorizzi, Jorge Soler vs Yordano Ventura, Adam Jones vs Jake Odorizzi, Hanley Ramirez on FD vs Wandy Rodriguez
Tournament Options:
Carlos Gonzalez vs Jerome Williams - Williams struggles to keep the ball in the yard and CarGo will likely have a favorable spot in the batting order today. Since 2013, CarGo hits right-handers at an elite level, .372 wOBA and .863 OPS, but remains difficult to trust in cash lineups since he has been slow to get going this year. Still, the talent is there and the upside is exactly what you want in a tournament.
Punt Options:
Seth Smith vs Danny Salazar
Matt Kemp vs Jeff Locke
