Let's talk about splits. I'm not talking about your ordinary righty/lefty or home/away statistics. I'm talking the splits that the geeks in the back of your high school math class were looking up while everyone else was learning how to calculate a standard deviation. In DFS, splits are king and you have to exploit them to be able to get an edge over the competition. With that in mind, however, how much edge are we really creating for ourselves if we use the same splits that everyone else in the industry uses? That's what motivated me to dig deeper. I wanted to identify a deeper level indicator to pair with those righty/lefty and home/away statistics to really put some teeth in my daily recommendations. Logic says that matching up a hitter's strength with a pitcher's weakness is a recipe for success. That's why I start off each of my daily articles with batted ball and pitch type splits. When you're on a fence about a player, looking for a contrarian tournament play, or just are searching for a value, pull a name from one of these lists
Note: All players listed below also have a wOBA exceeding the .320 league average mark against their opponent's specific handedness for the day's action. All statistics are based on a 3 year sample ranging from 2013-2015)
Flyball Hitters (>40%) vs Flyball Pitchers (>40%):
Lucas Duda $3,100 (48% FB rate, 15% HR/FB) vs Mike Fiers (43% flyballs)
Yoenis Cespedes $3,300 (45% FB rate, 10% HR/FB) vs Danny Salazar (40% flyballs)
Curtis Granderson $2,900 (45% FB rate, 10% HR/FB) vs Mike Fiers (43% flyballs)
Ian Kinsler $2,900 (41% FB rate, 6% HR/FB) vs Dann Salazar (40% flyballs)
Quality Fastball Hitters vs Heavy Fastball Pitchers (>60%):
Top:
Troy Tulowitzki $4,400 (2.25 wFB/c) vs Chase Anderson (63% fastballs)'
Jose Abreu $3,400 (2.13 wFB/c) vs Mike Pelfrey (73% fastballs)
Miguel Cabrera $5,200 (2.12 wFB/c) vs Danny Salazar (71% fastballs)
Values
Joey Votto $3,900 (1.87 wFB/c) vs John Locke (63% fastballs)
Chris Davis $3,400 (1.37 wFB/c) vs Joe Kelly (68% fastballs)
Justin Bour $2,600 (1.29 wFB/c) vs Carlos Martinez (64% fastballs)
Quality Slider Hitter vs Heavy Cutter Pitcher (>25%):
Top:
Yasiel Puig $3,800 (3.03 wSL/c) vs Jason Hammel (29% sliders)
Mike Trout $5,100 (1.86 wSL/c) vs Colin McHugh (33% sliders)
Justin Turner $3,500 (2.24 wSL/c) vs Jason Hammel (29% sliders)
Values:
Derek Norris $2,900 (2.19 wSL/c) vs Madison Bumgarner (36% sliders)
Yangervis Solarte $2,200 (2.04 w SL/c) vs Madison Bumgarner (36% sliders)
Quality Cutter Hitter vs CutterSlider Pitcher (>25%):
Yasmany Tomas $3,600 (3.61 wCT/c) vs Kyle Kendrick (25% cutters)
A.J. Pollock $4,400 (2.93 wCT/c) vs Kyle Kendrick (25% cutters)
Quality Changeup Hitter vs Heavy Chaneup Pitcher (>25%):
No pitchers going today throw more than 25% changeups. However, Chase Anderson, Jose Urena and Kyle Kendrick both throw >20% changeups. Here are the favorable matchups:
Top:
Paul Goldschmidt $6,100 (2.46 wCH/c) vs Kyle Kendrick (21% changeups)
Troy Tulowitzki $4,400 (2.84 wCH/c) vs Chase Anderson (21% changeups)
Values:
Matt Carpenter $3,500 (2.39 wCH/c) vs Jose Urena (22% changeups)
Randall Grichuk $3,600 (3.35 wCH/c) vs Jose Urena (22% changeups)
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