ADP: Chapman Out ... and Down by Kyle Elfrink

Over the past few seasons, looming suspensions have damaged many pre-draft ranking boards in the NFL. Now, fantasy baseball players are joining their football brethren. There's been a slight resolution on the Jose Reyes front, but that situation is still mostly unsettled as we head into the start of the season. Thankfully, the other major concern has been resolved.

Aroldis Chapman will not be punished by legal authorities for a domestic violence case in Florida, but he has been handed a 30-game suspension courtesy of the Commissioner's Office. This totally throws his fantasy value out of whack, thus offering fantasy players a variety of options. After all, you can now get the flame-throwing lefty at a very nice discount and still have an incredibly strong shot at 30+ saves and a K-Rate over 10 per nine.

First, the early reaction ... I spoke with Greg Ambrosious of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and, as expected, Chapman has seen a draft spot drop. Since the news came out, he has fallen from often being the second closer selected ... all the way down to number-8! He's gone from #70 to #86 in overall ADP.

Many of us don't bother to hunt for saves early, but don't you at least have to consider Chapman now? Let's journey through the possible game plans ...

Take him as the #8 closer and then go fishing late

Many embrace the idea of getting a closer outside the top 10, another outside the top 20, and then a 3rd power-ratio set-up man who could fall into saves at some point in the season. Beyond that, the strategy also consists of waiver wire hunting as jobs open up throughout the summer. Making a very slight alteration to that plan could pay off significantly this year. Instead of going with David Robertson (ADP of #11 among RPs), why not take a plunge with Chapman a couple of rounds earlier? Then you would still be able to employ the remainder of your usual strategy. You may suffer early (Chapman is eligible to return by the second week of May), but the back-end payoff is immense.

Take him at a minor discount and add one of his bullpen teammates later

I would not shout down anyone for taking Chapman as one of the first five relievers off the board ... especially if that owner nabbed either Andrew Miller (ADP of #18 among RPs) or Dellin Betances (ADP of #26 among RPs) a bit later. Miller is expected to hold the fort in Chapman's absence and Betances is a total all-around stud who's a monster ratio provider. Even when Chapman is back, those two should both continue to hold strong fantasy value for the remainder of the season.

Avoid him because a '30-game suspension' could affect you for 40 games

Chapman does get to be a part of spring training. He'll continue to work out and pitch in exhibition games. Then, once the season begins, he leaves the squad. Of course, he will continue working out and staying in throwing shape throughout April, but that doesn't mean he'll be an immediate 9th-inning option for the Yanks when he's eligible to return. First, they may decide to give him some work at Triple-A to sharpen things up under game conditions. Secondly, they may ease him back in to MLB work by using him in lower-leverage situations in support of the Miller/Betances combo. Suddenly, we're dealing with Chapman not being the Pinstripes' closer for a full quarter of the year.

Avoid him because he may not return as the Yankees' closer

I don't necessarily follow this reasoning, but I have heard others in the industry push the thought that perhaps Miller (or, Betances) proves so successful in Chapman's absence that New York might decide that they're better off not messing with a good thing. I would put the odds of such a decision at less than 20%. As good as the other two arms are, they are not Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees didn't trade for Chapman to 'support' the bullpen. They added him to be the final solution in the 9th inning. Still, we've seen it happen before in baseball and you should at least consider the possibility of it happening here.

To conclude, I believe that either of the first two options are the best two choices ... by far. I'm more apt to go with solution #1 over #2 because the 2nd option leaves you open to getting snaked on Miller or Betances by a fellow league member. That could leave you scrambling to find relief help for the first month-and-a-half. Additionally, you will have given up an earlier pick on a non-active Chapman, while by-passing an active hitter that will be able to help your team throughout April.

In other ADP news this week ...

• The 1st of Many Rotation Openings

Much like the early-week news that AC/DC singer, Brian Johnson, was 'at risk for hearing loss,' the back injury to LA Dodger hurler, Brett Anderson (ADP of #111 among SPs), should surprise absolutely nobody. Anderson's career has been hindered by continual issues and injuries. Even after last year's strong go of it, Anderson was a total 'DO NOT DRAFT' option entering this year. You just can't play for last year's good numbers with a track record this riddled. He's now off the radar screen for '16.

What's noteworthy about this particular loss is that Anderson is likely to be the first of many mishaps in the Dodger rotation. Sure, Clayton Kershaw (ADP of #1 among SPs), is a lock, but the arms behind him all come attached with red flags. Scott Kazmir (ADP of #56 among SPs) is Anderson's near-doppleganger. Kenta Maeda (ADP of #55 among SPs) couldn't even get a full-worth contract because of arm concerns. Hyun-Jin Ryu (shoulder, ADP of #74 among SPs) is doing nothing but playing catch on the side. Brandon McCarthy (ADP of #200 among SPs) and Alex Wood (ADP of #73 among SPs) are both trying to overcome injury. It's a total mess. I think it will not only sink the Dodgers this year, but it might also sink fantasy players who invest in Dodger pitching, too.

Frankly, you're better off taking a bench round shot on hot-shot rookie hurlers, like Jose De Leon (ADP of #157 among SPs) or Julio Urias (ADP of #119 among SPs). They aren't due in the bigs until mid-summer, but their upside, talent, and health, is so much more enticing.

• Great Power, but How Many At-Bats?

Nothing seems capable of slowing the excitement that surrounds Kyle Schwarber (overall ADP of #33). The whiff-prone youngster who hit .178 in his final 154 plate appearances last year.

Even if you don't worry about him becoming the next Brandon Wood, shouldn't you worry about playing time and at-bats? Defensively, he's a blind bull-dozer in the outfield. He's a bit better behind the plate, but the Cubs have two other better defensive options there. He is also now a part of a rotation of mix-and-match outfielders that will be exchanged in and out of the Cubbies' lineup all year thanks to the tinkering tendencies of Joe Maddon. The current ADP is a very high-price to pay for 450 AB's.

• From Jhonny to Jedd

St. Louis battled injury-after-injury on their way to a remarkable 100 wins last season. Now, the baseball gods look like they'll challenge them to do it again. On Monday, the franchise revealed that veteran, Jhonny Peralta (overall ADP of #238, #12 among SS), is in line to miss a good portion of the first half because of a thumb injury.

The set-back puts Jedd Gyorko (overall ADP of #323) into the team's starting plans. Originally, he was seen as a back-up for both Peralta and as a platoon-match for 2nd-baseman, Kolten Wong (overall ADP of #141). That was a perfect plan for slugging middle infielder. He crushes LHPs (.260/.335/.441), while scuffling versus RHPs (.228/.278/.379). So, in effect, you now have a platoon slugger who is bound to get over-exposed with extra playing time. Plus, Cuban signee, Aledmys Diaz (who is not even being drafted, right now), features a better glove, is a natural SS, and is finally starting to hit after two fruitless years in the minors. He offers an option beyond Gyorko.

Gyorko will always have pop and should be good for 15 homers this year, but things could get quite ugly in the other four columns. Dual-positional eligibility is an asset, though, and the shortstop position is so thin that Gyorko is worthy of a bench slot in a 12-team league.

• Action for Jackson and Pedr-O's Off to Baltimore

A favorite parlor game for future offseason's should ask, 'Who will be the final semi-big free agent to sign?' As of now, David Freese (overall ADP of #503!) might be our winner for 2016. The veteran third-bagger is the seemingly the last decent option still available following the signings of Austin Jackson and Pedro Alvarez.

Jackson (current ADP of #366) has landed on the South Side of Chicago and will even have a starting job. He'll man center-field, while Adam Eaton moves over to right-field. I'm a bit surprised that the White Sox (who become his 4th team in three seasons) are so willing to hand him the gig. Although his defense still holds up fairly well, his offense is trending backwards with his power, RBIs, runs, and steals all heading down. He's a decent all-around player, but for all intents and purposes, he is just a 5th or 6th fantasy outfielder. You shouldn't be surprised if he's on the move, yet again, by August.

We should all be much more interested in Alvarez (current ADP of #318). Everyday playing time is not available in Baltimore, but if your league allows daily changes (thus, letting you see if he's in the lineup each night) you've found a definite target. Even while spending his career in a pitchers' yard, Alvarez has shown-off proven power. He's averaged 28 homers per year since 2012 despite only playing an average of 143 games each year. He's likely got 120-130 in him for this season (many of those as a late-game bat off the bench) and by spotting him in the right spots he can reach 25 homers while DH'ing and getting some work at first base for the Orioles.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

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