Aaron Blair (SP, Atl): Aaron Blair made his first major league start Sunday against the Mets but fell short of a quality start, pitching five and one-third innings and allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and only one strikeout. He tossed only 80 pitches in the outing, 45 being strikes. Blair is a 6'4" 23 year old right-hander the Braves acquired from the Diamondbacks in the offseason trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona. He's got a low-to-mid 90's fastball with a good changeup and curveball. He's not a big strikeout pitcher (under 7 K/9 in 2015 in AA/AAA), but with his large frame he should be able to throw a lot of innings when not restrained by a pitch or innings limit. The Braves rotation is truly abysmal, so Blair should get every opportunity to stick in the rotation as long as he performs. Without much strikeout upside, Blair should perform as a back-end fantasy starter.
Randal Grichuk (OF, StL): Grichuk went 3-5 with a run and three RBI Sunday against the Padres, even chipping in his second stolen base of the season. He got off to a very slow start this season, but has battled his way up to a .228/.333/.439 slash with three homers, 15 runs and 11 RBI. The thing that really stands out with Grichuk in the early going is his increased patience; he's walked nine times and struck out 17 times, good for 13.6% and 25.8%, respectively. Never before has he posted anywhere near a double-digit walk rate, so this sudden improvement in his plate discipline is impressive. Looking deeper at his numbers, he has indeed improved his chase rate substantially, trimming nearly 10% off his mark from last year. He's also whiffing less, dropping his swinging strike rate from an abysmal 15.5% from a year ago to a still bad but palatable 11.9%. That's led to a 5.6% reduction in his K% from last year. Couple that with a 38.9% hard contact rate and there's reason to believe his BABIP and batting average will continue to improve. Grichuk has a ton of raw power and is making a lot of the adjustments you want to see out of a 24 year old. It might not be a bad time to buy low while his average is down.
Jake McGee (RP, Col): McGee blew up in fantastic fashion against the Dodgers Sunday, coughing up five earned runs on five hits and a walk in two-thirds of an inning. He was charged with both his first blown save and loss of the season. His ERA now sits at 9.53 for the season, with two walks and three strikeouts in five and two-thirds innings. It's certainly a "rocky" start for McGee, who was acquired from the Rays via trade in the offseason. He was discounted in drafts mostly just due to the fact that he'd be pitching in Coors so frequently, but even with the decent price tag, McGee owners have cause for concern. His fastball velocity (93.3) is currently down another mile per hour from last year after dropping two miles an hour from the year before (96.3 in '14). Now granted these are miniscule sample sizes, but he's getting almost no whiffs on his pitches to this point (5.5% swinging strike rate), which is frightening for a closer who had a 32.7% K% last season. It's also a pretty miserable situation behind him in that bullpen if you're looking for a handcuff. Miguel Castro was recently placed on the DL, leaving Boone Logan (a lefty), Justin Miller (5.63 ERA) and Chad Qualls (6 ERA) as replacements. It's disgusting, and truly a bullpen to avoid. If the Rockies don't mind having a lefty close, and apparently they don't, Logan would be the only reasonable add here, but you're better off speculating on other bullpens.
Welington Castillo (C, Ari): "Beef" Welington went 3-5 with his sixth home run of the year, scoring two runs, driving in three, walking twice and stealing his first base of the season just so I could say that he had a smash and a dash. He's now slashing .263/.338/.596 in 65 plate appearances. He enjoyed a power surge last season, hitting 19 home runs in only 378 PA's, and so far this year he's doing his best to replicate those totals. Obviously his absurd 26% HR/FB won't last, and it's hard to see him even repeating his 18.8% mark from 2015. On the optimistic side however, he managed a 38% hard contact rate last year, and so far this season he's even improved upon that, sitting at 41%. His .243 BABIP will certainly come up soon enough, bringing his batting average with it, but he's not going to be a BA/OBP asset. Hang on to him if you have him; he's in a good RBI spot in that Diamondbacks lineup, and with enough at-bats he could approach last years' home run total. He faces lefty Jaime Garcia on Monday, and Castillo has a career .365 wOBA against lefties. He could very well keep his hot streak going, and at only $3,100 of Draft Kings, he's a solid gamble.
Andrew McCutchen (OF, Pit): You know that excitement you get when you see a team scores 12 runs and you can't wait to see the box score to check out what Andrew McCutchen did from the two hole in that game? Well, it's a real sinking feeling when you find he was only 1-6 on the day with four K's. He did manage to take a walk and score two runs, but this game is a microcosm of Cutch's April. Through 89 plate appearances he's slashing .213/.337/.347 with two homers, 12 runs and five RBI. He's been trying to steal at least, but is only 1 for 3 so far. It's early of course, but there are some really troubling signs with Cutch; a contact rate that's down 7.3%, a swinging strike rate that's up 4.4%, and a hard contact rate that's down 10.6%. Some of this will certainly normalize, but it's entirely possible that we are witnessing the early stages of decline. His spot in the lineup is secure at least, so his R/RBI should help prop up his value should his BA/OBP dip from what we're used to.
Let's talk some ball. Follow me on Twitter @NathanDokken
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