Carlos Martinez went 5 IP and gave up 4 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 3 K's. Something is not right with Carlos Martinez. His ERA looks good at 3.56, but his advanced metrics do not like Martinez going forward. He has a 4.33 xFIP, which is directly related to the severe drop in strikeouts (24%-19%). His SwStr has plummeted from 10.5% to just above 8%. He is struggling with command in the zone as his heatmap has a lot of red right in the middle of zone, which is where hitters tee off. Martinez needs to turn it around quickly, but it looks like regression is going to set in real fast. I would avoid him in his next start against the high powered Cubs offense.
Steven Matz went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 3 H, 0 BB, and 8 K's. This was Matz's first start since having his elbow checked out and taking time off. Anytime a pitcher has elbow related problems it is a major red flag. Matz has been excellent this year when on the hill (2.81 ERA, 25% K, and 1.06 WHIP). Matz has been an interesting case, because he has been able to maintain above average strikeout rates with below average SwStr numbers. The fact that he is a lefty with above average velocity is part of it. Regardless, Matz has big time upside, but we need to keep a serious eye on his velocity and reports on his health going forward.
Aaron Nola went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 7 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's. Nola came into today's game with a sterling 2.89 ERA, which is backed up by his 2.40 xFIP. The big question mark was his strikeout rate coming into the year, but he has upped that to 9.85 K/9. Nola has turned himself into a near elite starting pitcher and everything lines up for him to continue being above average SP. He gets DET next time out and with Detroit's right-handed heavy lineup, Nola is a good bet to post another strong game.
Michael Conforto was 2-4 with his seventh home run of the year and 2 RBI in the win against the Brewers. Michael Conforto has come back down to earth after his hot stretch, but he is still slashing .281 with 7 HR and 23 RBI. He continues to hit the ball extremely hard (45%) and strikeout at about a league average (22%), which will allow him a lot of success this year. His uptick in fly balls is also an encouraging sign for his power profile as well. Conforto is an exciting young player that will continue to be a fantasy asset going forward.
DFS Value Play
Franklin Gutierrez is someone who crushes LHP (.386 wOBA/.254 ISO). He gets a massive park shift moving from Safeco to Great American Ballpark. He also is matched up with John Lamb whose velocity is down this year and opponents have a 38% Hard contact rate against. DraftKings: $3,100
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