Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF-BOS): JBJ greeted Kyle Gibson with a 3-run homer, his 10th of the season, leading the Red Sox' 15-run assault. Bradley has posted a .410 wOBA and 158 wRC+ through 234 plate appearances with 10 homers, 5 steals, 40 RBI, and 32 runs, putting him 10th on the ESPN Player Rater among OF's. While I had him pegged as a top 30-35 OF in the preseason, the gains he has made with his hard-hit rate and with his performance against lefties leads me to believe he can sustain top-20 production. Except for the power--which isn't supported by his batted ball speed and profile--don't expect significant regression from JBJ.
J.A. Happ (SP-TOR): J.A. allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings against the Orioles, but picked up the win thanks to an 11-run Jays attack. Happ is due for some negative regression as his .257 BABIP and 80% strand rate look unsustainable. However, thanks to his groundball approach, he continues to pitch well with runners on base; and his K-rate looks underrepresented given his swing-and-miss rate. The ceiling is low, but there aren't many back end fantasy starters with a higher floor.
Danny Duffy (SP-KC): Emerging before our eyes is Danny Duffy, who struck out 10 in 6 scoreless innings against the White Sox in picking up his 2nd win. The former elite prospect now carries a 59:10 K:BB ratio through 49 innings with a 3.31 xFIP and is building up the stamina to go deeper into games. Duffy's fastball velocity is up 2 MPH on average and he's going more to the changeup when he needs it. With a 16% swinging strike rate, Duffy screams buy.
Matt Shoemaker (SP-LAA): Toss Matt Shoemaker into the "has-arrived" category as well after he struck out 11 in 8 scoreless innings against the Indians. Shoemaker has altered his pitch deployment considerably, moving away from his curveball and reliance on 4-seamers to a heavier focus on his splitter. His velocity is also up 1 MPH, and thanks to a spike in his first-pitch-strike rate, Shoemaker is getting into pitchers counts and missing more bats. Buy.
Rick Porcello (P-BOS): Moving off Jon Lester is risky, but Rick Porcello, priced at $8300 for his matchup with the Twins, intrigues as a way to work in the pricey bats. Minnesota is 22nd in total offense against righties and 5th in strikeouts. Porcells has struck out 22% of batters while allowing a respectable 29% hard hit rate. And he's due for positive regression in HR/FB rate. Add in the run depressing environment of Target Field, and you have a recipe for Porcello success.
FanDuel Value Plays:
Mike Napoli $3300
Jose Abreu $3300
Evan Gattis $3300
Rajai Davis $3300
Ryan Rua $3200
Melky Cabrera $3200
Chris Young $3100
Carlos Gomez $2700
Logan Forsythe $2600
