Seth Lugo (SP, Mets): Lugo has shown some late-season promise in his results, but failed to record a quality start against the Phillies. He lasted five innings, giving up three earned runs on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts. Homers haven't been a problem for him, but he gave up solo shots to Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp, accounting for most of the damage against him in this one. He's just under a home run per nine on average over his 53.2 innings for the Mets this year, and his ERA is a very enticing 2.61 over that span. His FIP is far less kind however, at 4.12, and if you regress his home run per fly ball rate to league average, it's even uglier at a 4.57 xFIP. If you've been streaming him you've been happy, but you're playing with fire. He's allowed a startling 39% hard contact rate, and with 36% of balls in play being fly balls, it's surprising that a lot more of them haven't left the ballpark yet. With an extremely favorable .230 BABIP so far and a K/9 of just 6.60, Lugo simply cannot be trusted moving forward. He's slated for two more starts in the regular season, with road matchups against the Marlins and Phillies.
Cameron Rupp (C, Phi): Rupp launched his 16th home run of the season, raising his ISO over .200 on the season. He's been a decent option at catcher this season, providing that solid power, but his 28% strikeout rate is going to lead to a much worse average in future seasons than he's been able to maintain this year. He's got a .322 BABIP this season despite the K's, backed only by an above-average 34% hard contact rate. He's a slow runner, so whether he's watching a fly ball die in the air (34%) or trying to beat out a ground ball (49%), he's not likely to repeat a .320+ BABIP. He also doesn't walk (6% BB%), making him a player who looks like a career .300 OBP guy. He's only got a 33% pull rate this year, so if he can pull some more fly balls, he could turn into a 30 homer threat and be mentioned in the same tier as Evan Gattis. As bad as the catcher landscape is these days, Rupp should be on your radar for a second catcher with upside despite his lack of contact and on base skills.
Tyler Chatwood (SP, Col): Chatwood was solid on the road against the Dodgers, giving up only two runs (one earned) over six innings with four walks and five K's. His ERA is 4.02 on the season, but if you have utilized him properly, you could have a much nicer ERA from him than that factored into your year-long stats. Chatwood has been much, much better on the road than at home this season. That's not terribly atypical for a Rockies starter, but his home ERA coming into this matchup was 6.12, compared to his road ERA of 1.77. It's truly a stark contrast, and one that you should keep in mind if you're in a deeper mixed league or NL-Only next year. He should be widely streamed for what should be his final start of the season next week on the road against the scuffling Giants.
Jeanmar Gomez (RP, Phi): Gomez allowed two runs on a walk and a homer in the ninth inning to blow his sixth save of the season. He has now allowed nine runs in his last three innings of work, spanning five appearances. He got the dreaded "vote of confidence" from manager Pete Mackanin before Thursday's game, but this could finally push him to pull the cord on what has been an unlikely closer from the jump. His ERA now sits at 4.28 on the season, while his 6.15 K/9 won't help him out of any jams, nor will it help his fantasy owners in the strikeout category. Hector Neris was called upon to clean up the mess and ended up finishing the ninth inning for Gomez, striking out both batters he retired while also walking one. He's got a much friendlier fantasy profile, as chronicled by the mighty Michael Waldo in "A Closer Look"; his 11.52 K/9 and 2.44 ERA across 76.2 innings of work is absolutely tantalizing, and those looking ahead to 2017 in keeper and dynasty formats (and hey, for the rest of the season for that matter) need to snatch him up at once as he could be a terrific closer option moving forward.
Matt Kemp (OF, Atl): Kemp took the Marlins deep twice on Thursday for his 32nd and 33rd homers of the season. Kemp had admittedly gained weight and ran out of motivation in San Diego, but has vowed to right the ship for his new team. He has played more like the old Matt Kemp that we have come to know and love over the second half of the season, pushing his OPS over .900 compared to a first half mark of just .723. He has also maintained a similar K% while almost doubling his walk rate to 7.5%. The steals are gone from his portfolio of fantasy assets, having attempted just one on the year, and while the lineup is going to be bad for a long time, keep in mind that he has managed to now drive in 104 RBI while playing for the Padres and Braves this year. With the sudden abundance of power in baseball though, Kemp doesn't provide anything that a lot of other outfielders already give you, and he will go higher in drafts than a lot of them based on name value.
Let's talk some ball! Follow me on Twitter @NathanDokken
