Gio Gonzalez-Nationals-SP
Gio Gonzalez went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 7 H, 0 BB, and 6 K's against the Marlins. Gonzalez through 23 starts has a 2.59 ERA (4.45 SIERA). He has been really good this year but has benefited from batted ball luck (.241 BABIP). His strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are in line with his career averages and he is still walking too many guys. The difference is a .241 BABIP this year compared to .293 for his career. His 85% left on base percentage is also way above his career average of 73%. There is not much to point towards regression setting in this year but valuing him in 2018 based upon this season is going to be a mistake.
Kyle Hendricks-Cubs-SP
Kyle Hendricks went 4.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 5 H, 3 BB, and 5 K's against the Giants. Hendricks through 15 starts has a 3.70 ERA (4.26 SIERA). His advanced stats are always going to look average due to his below average strikeout rate (20%) but what they don't capture are his control and sequencing. Hendricks is unlikely to repeat his 2016 season but he still can be an above average starter on a good team. His hard hit rate has spiked to 36% this year after being sub 30% the past two seasons. If he can go back to limiting hard contact he could be a 3.50 ERA type of pitcher with good ratios and decent strikeout totals.
Joey Votto-Reds-1B
Joey Votto was 2-5 with 2 R and 1 RBI against the Padres. On the year he is hitting .315 with 30 HR, 76 R, 82 RBI, and 3 SB. He has his lowest strikeout rate of his career (11.5%) and a .438 OBP to go along with the jump in power. He is on pace for potentially a 40 HR season, which would be a career high. Votto seems to be getting better with age. He is an elite hitter that contributes in every category and format. Over the past 14 days Votto is hitting .487 AVG with 24% BB and 7% K, which is just crazy.
Madison Bumgarner-Giants-SP
Madison Bumgarner went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Cubs. Bumgarner through 10 starts has a 2.71 ERA (3.83 SIERA). Despite the ratios being typical Bumgarnerian, he has just two wins. The Giants offense is below average and isn't going to be getting better anytime soon. Expect excellent ratios with above average strikeout and walk rates, just don't expect many wins. He looks completely healthy after spending most of the year on the disabled list.
DFS Value Play
Kike Hernandez-Dodgers-OF/SS
Kike Hernandez will have the platoon advantage against LHP Anthony Banda and will benefit from a par shift from Dodger Stadium to Chase Field. Hernandez has a career .371 wOBA and .255 ISO against southpaws. Check to make sure he is in the lineup and if he bats near the top of the order he becomes a tremendous value. Draftkings: $3,300
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