Jameson Taillon went 5 IP and gave up 3 ER on 8 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Dodgers. Taillon came into today's game with a 3.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 3.70 SIERA. He left with a 4.08 ERA. The underlying skills suggest that Taillon is a better pitcher than his traditional numbers say. His strikeout rate is average at 22% but he has good control (7% BB), gets weak contact (53% GB), and keeps the ball in the park (0.96 HR/9). Taillon has been pitching better lately and this is correlated with new pitch which is a slider. He is also using his off-speed pitches more which is a good sign for his strikeout rate going forward. Taillon is a solid candidate to buy for the rest of the season.
Miles Mikolas went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's against the Marlins. Mikolas has been better than the Cardinals or 5 owners expected. He has a 2.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his first 12 starts. The positives have been excellent control 3% BB, 51% GB, and 0.75 HR/9. The lack of strikeouts (19%) is concerning from a fantasy perspective because it puts a lot of pressure on his ratio stats continue to be excellent. His SIERA is 3.61, which suggests that he is still an above-average starter with regression baked in. Continue to ride \him while he is pitching well but don't expect his ERA to stick in the mids 2's for the rest of the year.
Tyler Chatwood went 4.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 7 BB, and 6 K's against the Phillies. Chatwood has a 3.86 ERA his first 12 starts with the Cubs. His ERA indicators are not buying what he has done so far (6.14 SIERA). His biggest issue has been a lack of control and that is an understatement. He is walking 20% of batters faced while only striking out 19%. He is not getting ahead of hitters (51% F-strike) and not missing bats with a 7% swinging strike rate. The two positives are that he is getting 53% GB and keeping the ball in the park (0.50 HR/9) but at some point the lack of control is going to come back to bite him and it's going to be ugly. He is someone to stay away from because he is a ticking time bomb.
Joc Pederson-Dodgers- OF
Joc Pederson was 3-5 with 2 HR (5,6), 3 R, and 3 RBI against the Pirates. Pederson is having a solid 2018 season. He is hitting .272 with 6 HR, 25 R, 25 RBI, and 1 SB in 58 games. His underlying skills have improved. He cut his strikeout rate from 21% to 14% which is well above average. Pederson has also made more hard contact (36%) which in combination with more fly balls (41%) should lead to an increase in the power department. The Dodgers have done a good job of getting Pederson at-bats against only right-handed pitchers. He only has 19 at-bats against LHP and has a .276/.362/.698 against RHP. Pederson is valuable in daily transaction leagues where you can take advantage of his platoon splits.
Scott Schebler was 3-6 with a run and an RBI against the Rockies. On the year he is hitting .277 with 26 R, 23 RBI, and 2 SB in 47 games. Schebler is coming off a year in which he hit 30 HR and stole 5 bases albeit with a .233 AVG. This year the power is down slightly but the rest of skills have gotten better. His strikeout rate has fallen to 18% which makes the jump in his batting average legit. He is also hitting the ball extremely well with 40% hard contact. Keep an eye on Schebler's fly ball rate as his power is going to be correlated with it. He is seeing regular playing time now that Jesse Winker's role has been reduced. Schebler doesn't have the name value as some others but the skills are solid and he plays half his games in a hitter-friendly park.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Marcell Ozuna ($3,700) & 1B/OF Cody Bellinger ($3,800)
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