Giancarlo Stanton hit his 28th HR of the season yesterday; it was the hardest hit ball in MLB for the last two years. This is already Stanton's fourth HR of August, after hitting just five in all of July, which suggests he could be ready to go on a tear. Looking at Stanton's numbers, we can definitely see more HR the rest of the way, but we'll likely see some batting average regression. His .349 BABIP is 60 points over last year, and he's also striking out more.
After a CG 1-hit shutout, it was only natural for Rick Porcello to allow 7 ER through 4+ IP against the Blue Jays. Such is baseball. Porcello is a solid mid-rotation arm, buoyed by his excellent win totals with the Red Sox. He won't do much better than a high 3 ERA with a K rate under 9. There's certainly value there, but nothing elite.
JA Happ posted a QS in his return from the DL, as he went 6 IP allowing 3 ER while striking out 9 Rangers. Despite an ERA hovering around 4.00, Happ has been more than serviceable this season with his 27% K%. His SIERA sits at 3.58 on the year, so we could see some positive regression over the final two months. Happ has improved in 2018, in part, by using his sinker less in place of his fastball (56%).
Justin Verlander's near spotless season took a hit yesterday, as he let in 7 runs (6 earned) in just 2 IP. His ERA increased to 2.50 from 2.19 on the night. Verlander was fresh off his 14 K performance against the Dodgers, so its tough to put too much credence in this one outing. I'm still not sure how Verlander found the fountain of youth late-2017 and all of 2018, but I don't think yesterday is an indication that he's lost it. Keep starting him with confidence.
Yonder Alonso hit his 20th HR of the season as part of a 1-for-4 effort yesterday. Alonso hasn't quite kept pace of last year, as his OPS is down nearly 100 points, but he's made up for that with meaningfully more RBI, as he's already nearly matched 2017's number and we're not even halfway through August. Alonso should be a very cheap source of power the rest of the way, but his average will be around .250-.260.
