Hector Neris- RP- PHI- Drop value- With Brandon Workman being acquired by the Phillies it looks like Neris is no longer the closer. He entered last night's game with a 2-run lead in the 8th. He exited after getting just one out, giving up a run and leaving 2 runners on base who eventually scored. Neris had been a relative bright spot in the dumpster fire that had been the Phillies bullpen. He had a 6.75 ERA, but his FIP was 2.80 and his K/9 was 11.81. After last night implosion Neris now sits with a 7.94 ERA and 3.35 FIP. He has only pitched 5.2 innings so we're still dealing with a small sample size but Neris has now given up 3 runs in 1/3 of an IP in each of his last two appearances. That is not a trend to recommend him.
Jonathan Villar- 2B- MIA- Hot- Villar went 5-for-8 in yesterday's doubleheader. It raised his average from .244 to .279 and his BABIP went from .298 to .338. Villar's career mark is .340 so his ending point yesterday is not an indication that regression to the mean is lurking out there. He also stole his 7th base of the year and is already above his projected total in that column. That gives him value by itself.
Dansby Swanson- SS- ATL- Hot- Swanson continues to experience some very good luck. He has an 8-game hitting streak in which he has gone 15-for-37. Swanson has only walked once in this stretch and has 4 extra base hits. His BABIP for the season is up to .411 so any regression to the mean will be painful. Swanson's Exit Velocity is down from 89.9 last year to 87.0 and his HardHit% has dropped to 35.6% to 41.6%. His .306 average looks like a sell high opportunity.
Cody Bellinger- 1B- LAN- Great Player- Bellinger hit a walk off homer to start and end the bottom of the 9th last night. He has finally been consistently doing what was expected of him. Heading into last night's game he had raised his Exit Velocity from 86.6 to 89.3 since August 15 and his HardHit% had gone from 23.9% to 36.8%. Bellinger's .195 BABIP is still a drag on his batting average which sits at .209, but it will likely rise as he keeps hitting the ball with authority. It looks like patience will pay off for his owners.
Adam Frazier- 2B- PIT- Hot- Even in a short season it is possible for regression to the mean to kick in and maybe that has started for Frazier. He entered yesterday's game with a .174 average and .182 BABIP. After going 3-for-5 Frazier has bumped his numbers to a .198 average and .200 BABIP. He also hit his 3rd homer in his last 10 games. That puts Frazier, with 4 homers so far, on a pace to exceed his 5 projected homers.
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