Dylan Bundy went 7.1 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 1 BB, and 12 K's against the Rangers. Dundy now has a 2.48 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through nine starts. The difference between BAL to LAA has been drastic. Getting out of Camden Yards has certainly helped but he has also improved his skills across the board. His strikeout rate is up (27% K) and his walk rate down (6% BB). Bundy has also kept the ball in the yard (0.71 HR/9) which may have been his biggest problem in Baltimore. The real change has come from his pitch mix. He is throwing his fastball less and his offspeed pitches (SL, CB, and CH) more. This is awesome because his fastball is not good and his slider is a plus pitch. His curve and changeup have graded out as positive pitches this year giving him a deep arsenal that allows him to turn over lineups. Everything looks great for Bundy and there is no reason to believe that his breakout season will not continue. His next matchup is scheduled to be against the Diamondbacks which is a very nice match up.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa was 1-4 against the Angels. He is now hitting .320 with 2 HR, 21 R, 7 RBI, and 8 SB. Most fantasy managers are playing him at catcher which has made him extremely valuable. Even outside of catcher, he has been valuable with three category production (AVG, R, and SB). The power isn't very likely to ever materialize given his quality of contact (29% Hard and 2% Barrel). Kiner-Falefa is a good bet to hit for average given his contact skills (13% K). He has also been relatively productive in stealing bases (17/23) in his career at the major league level. He is going to remain extremely valuable this year given his hot bat and catcher eligibility but will likely be over-drafted next season based on this mini-breakout.
Jeimer Candelario was 5-6 with 2 HR (7), 2 R, and 5 RBI against the Cardinals in the doubleheader. He is now hitting .333 with 7 HR, 25 R, 28 RBI, and 1 SB. Candelario has been fantastic and the skills have improved since last year. He has average plate skills (25% K and 7% BB) so the biggest change this year has been an increase in hard contact (46% Hard) and at the right angle (10% Barrels). He is also swinging less out of the zone and making more contact in the zone. The breakout may not be sustainable over the course of a 162 game season but in spring of a season you ride his hot bat out.
Sean Manaea went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 2 H, 0 BB, and 4 K's against the Astros. Manaea now has a 4.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through nine starts. His SIERA (4.02) suggests that he has pitched better than his traditional numbers show but the underlying skills are not great. Manaea has shown good control (4% BB) but hasn't missed many bats (20% K) and is giving up a lot of hard contact (42% Statcast). This is a dangerous recipe for a pitcher and his home park will negate some of the damage but it is like playing with fire despite today's strong start. He also has two very tough matchups on the road against the Rockies and Dodgers for his next couple of starts.
Matt Olson was 1-3 with an HR (12), 1 R, 2 RBI, and 1 BB against the Astros. Olson is now hitting .193 with 12 HR, 23 R, 31 RBI, and 0 SB. The average has been a killer but he is producing in the power department. The quality of contact (49% Hard) and plate skills (28% K, and 16% BB) are all in line with what he has done in his career. The biggest hit to his AVG has been a .193 BABIP which is significantly lower than his .276 career BABIP. This means Olson should be on the right side of variance rounding out the year.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Sam Hilliard (COL) $3,500 and 3B Ty France (SEA) $3,800
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