Dallas Keuchel-White Sox-SP
Dallas Keuchel went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 3 K's against the Indians. Keuchel has been excellent for the White Sox this year. He is 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Keuchel needs to dominate the ratios for his overall value because he is well below average when it comes to strikeouts (17% K). He does have excellent control (6% BB) and is able to induce weak contact (54% GB) but it also makes him dependent on batted-ball luck (.258 BABIP). This is a wrap on his 2020 regular season and Keuchel should be viewed as a back end of the rotation start next year not because of his number because that warrants a higher ranking but because of the underlying skills. Don't pay for the superb traditional numbers over a small sample.
Franmil Reyes was 1-4 with 2 K against the White Sox. Reyes is hitting .277 with 8 HR, 26 R, 30 RBI, and 0 SB. It is not what you expected from Reyes in terms of power but it has not sunk your fantasy team. The loss in power is a result of less hard contact (37% Hard) compared to (48% Hard) in 2019. The strikeout rate is still relatively high at 30% but he does pair it with a good eye (10% BB). The good news is that his barrel rate is still well above average (13.3%) and his max EV (114.7 mph) is in line with his career numbers. Given the course of a full season, he would likely have hit a power surge at some point. The hope is that this keeps his price lower than it should be in 2021 drafts.
Hyun-Jin Ryu-Blue Jays-SP
Hyun-Jin Ryu went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's against the Yankees. Ryu is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 67 IP. He has been as advertised for the Blue Jays. The walks are up (6%) but that has coincided with an increase in strikeouts (28% K) which has led to an even better 22% K-BB than last year (19% K-BB). Ryu also induces a ton of ground balls (53% GB) which helps keep the ball in the yard (0.81 HR/9). The good news is that he has stayed healthy for the second straight season which was the only thing holding him back from a fantasy perspective because the skills and results were always well above-average and it came down to how many innings you thought you were going to get.
Cristian Javier went 5.2 IP and gave up 3 ER on 5 H, 1 BB, and 6 K's against the Rangers. Javier now has a 3.48 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first 10 GS. The ERA and WHIP look great but the foundation underneath is showing some cracks. The strikeout rate is useable at 25% but the walk rate at 9% is slightly concerning. The 8.4% SwStr does not match the 25% K so something has to give there. He has also been the beneficiary of a ridiculously low .184 BABIP and an 89% LOB. Both numbers are unsustainable and his 4.48 SIERA gives a better indication of what to expect in 2021. It is still useable for fantasy but he is likely to be over drafted based on this small sample.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.-Blue Jays-3B
Vlad Guerrero Jr. was 3-4 with an HR (8), 2 R, and 1 RBI against the Yankees. He is hitting .263 with 8 HR, 31 R, 33 RBI, and 1 SB through 57 GP. The shine has worn off after two straight disappointing seasons. The contact skills still look great (16% K) as well as the plate discipline (9% BB) but 55% GB is going to make it hard to hit for power. Guerrero Jr. has hit the ball hard this year with 50% Hard hit balls according to Statcast but a 4.5 LA isn't going to cut it. The makings of an elite hitter are still there but questions about his body and launch angle are going to keep his price down in 2021 as it should.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Joey Gallo (TEX) $4,000 and 3B Brian Anderson (MIA) $3,900
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