One of our staples within the Fantistics Draft Advisory product is our annual Comeback, Breakout, and Sleepers analysis. This is where we take a look at some of the players have fallen out of fantasy favor or have been looked less favorably by others (consensus). Although there inevitably is some conjecture involved, we base our projections on proven Sabermetric indicators (see our approximately 75% success rate in predicting the statistical direction for players). Our goal is to beat the herd mentality or Average Draft Position (which inherently will produce average fantasy results). The following section highlights the players that we believe will outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) by 1 or more rounds in 2021.
One of the features in the Fantistics Draft Advisory software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, RTSports and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to more closely match your draft, this also allows the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Knowing what your draft room sees or thinks of other players is almost like seeing the other owners cards during a poker game. This allows us to also gauge what players Fantistics ranks higher in value (FDP), verses their ADP. Which in turn allows Draft Advisory user, in some instances, to possibly wait an extra round or two, further enhancing our Value Above Mean ideology.
What you will see in the last 3 columns to the right are the players latest NFBC ADP, the Fantistics Draft Position (FDP), and the last column represents the Delta between the two. As an example, C Gary Sanchez has an 15th Round ADP, but Fantistics values him as a 11th round player. In this case it behooves you to wait a few rounds before selecting him. In taking a similar approach through the rest of your draft, you will maximize value...and that's how drafts are won.
The FPI column represents our Fantasy Production Indicator. The higher number the better, as it measures production on a per plate appearance or inning pitched approach. The EAV$ column represents the Expected Auction Value for each player that utlitizing a 5x5 Roto format (you should of course use the projections software to compute values and rankings relative to your league, as most leagues have variations that change the rankings)
Below is a sample of Undervalued Players at each position. There are another 125 players in the mid and late rounds that we advocate in the Fantistics Draft Advisory program. Fantistics subscribers can find thes eplayers in the Draft Advisor or on our member section:
Perez, Salvador Perez finished 2017 and 2018 with 27HRs and 80 RBIs. 2019 was lost due to injury. His 104 BBS on his HRs and 43% hard Hit rate is elite at his position. Solid 76% contact rate and 23% ISO are just more accolades. That said he doesn't walk much and doesn't have good speed, so his RS numbers are depressed. His BA from the 2020 season (333) is well above what it should have been, thanks to an lucky 375 BABIP, so expect some regression there. Perez goes under valued every fantasy season. 2020 BABIP: 0.375(0.130)| Contact Rate: 76%(-2%)| HR Distance: 415ft(16)| HR BBS: 104.0(-0.3)| HardHIt%: 43%(-3%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.2)| Elevation%: 14.2(-3.8)| Barrels%: 13.9%(3.1%)| HR/FB%: 26%(11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.2)| EYE: 0.08(-0.08)| ISO: 30.0%(9.6%)
Sanchez, Gary Sanchez has the most pop of any catcher in the game with a 106.4 BBS on his HRs and an overall average of 92 MPH on balls hit into play. His 17.4% Barrels rate is elite as was his 41% Hard Hit rate in 2020. What is not elite is his ability to stay healthy, and the spiraling contact rate (68%) last season. So there will be a sacrifice for power. Still if he can muster 400 at bats, which he can certainly achieve with some DH appearances, he could be the #1 fantasy catcher in 2021. 2020 BABIP: 0.159(-0.085)| Contact Rate: 68%(-2%)| HR Distance: 400ft(-16)| HR BBS: 106.4(-2.9)| HardHIt%: 41%(-1%)| Avg Velocity: 92(0.8)| Elevation%: 19.2(0.1)| Barrels%: 17.4%(-1.7%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.2)| EYE: 0.28(-0.04)| ISO: 21.8%(-7.5%)
Vazquez, Christian Posted an elevated 341 BABIP and 283 BA. That might not be sustainable given that he only barrels 4.6% of the time. Contact rate has been slipping, but still in healthy range of 79%. Power numbers are legit, but BA will likely take a dip. Still there is lots of value at his early 13th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.341(0.036)| Contact Rate: 79%(-2%)| HR Distance: 395ft(6)| HR BBS: 100.7(0.4)| HardHIt%: 31%(-3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.3)| Elevation%: 14.4(1.5)| Barrels%: 4.6%(-1.6%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.0)| EYE: 0.37(0.04)| ISO: 17.3%(-2.8%)
Jansen, Danny Unlucky 190 BABIP does not correlate with 35% 95MPH+ rate. Decent 78% contact rate and only 21% K%. Lots of upside here in 2021, especially given his 25th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.190(-0.040)| Contact Rate: 78%(-3%)| HR Distance: 410ft(1)| HR BBS: 104.6(2.7)| HardHIt%: 21.5%(-20.9%)| 95MPH+%: 35.5%(-4.5%)| Avg Velocity: 85(-3.6)| Elevation%: 16.3(0.2)| Barrels%: 8.6%(2.7%)| HR/FB%: 17%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.0)| EYE: 0.68(0.29)| ISO: 17.5%(2.2%)
Severino, Pedro Severino has decent contact skills (74-78%) with an encouraging 17% HR/FB rate. He also posted a decent 8% barrels rate. At only 26 there is upside given you'll be able to snag him in the very late rounds. 2020 BABIP: 0.304(0.019)| Contact Rate: 74%(-4%)| HR Distance: 403ft(1)| HR BBS: 105.6(3.8)| HardHIt%: 31.4%(-1.8%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.4)| Elevation%: 9.5(-3.4)| Barrels%: 7.4%(-1.1%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.1)| EYE: 0.40(0.00)| ISO: 13.8%(-3.2%)
Abreu, Jose Other than in the stolen base department, Abreu is elite across the board. Production has been increasing across the board, but at 34, there is some concern that he might have passed his apex, but he's a relative value at his 4th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.350(0.030)| Contact Rate: 72%(-6%)| HR Distance: 406ft(2)| HR BBS: 105.6(0.0)| HardHIt%: 40%(0%)| Avg Velocity: 93(0.8)| Elevation%: 10.9(0.0)| Barrels%: 14.3%(1.5%)| HR/FB%: 33%(12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.1)| EYE: 0.31(0.07)| ISO: 30.0%(8.1%)
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Vlad hit .262 with 9 HR, 31 R, 33 RBI, and 1 SB through 60 GP. The shine has worn off after two straight disappointing seasons. The contact skills still look great (16% K) as well as the plate discipline (9% BB) but 55% GB is going to make it hard to hit for power. Guerrero Jr. has hit the ball hard this year with 50% 95MPH+% on balls according to Statcast but a 4.6 LA isn't going to cut it. The makings of an elite hitter are still there but questions about his body and launch angle are going to keep his price down in 2021 as it should. - pdouble Oh yeah, he's in the "best shape of his life"...which in his case really does mean something as his heavy body frame was impinging on his ability. 2020 BABIP: 0.282(-0.026)| Contact Rate: 76%(-1%)| HR Distance: 396ft(-21)| HR BBS: 103.7(-2.9)| HardHIt%: 38.8%(3.9%)| 95MPH+%: 50.8%(12.4%)| Avg Velocity: 93(3.1)| Elevation%: 4.6(-2.1)| Barrels%: 8.7%(1.0%)| HR/FB%: 18%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.0(0.5)| EYE: 0.53(0.02)| ISO: 19.9%(3.7%)
Rizzo, Anthony You can ignore the 222 BA from a season ago, as his 218 Singles rate was very unlucky. Yes there was a dip in the Hard Hit Rate of only 35%, but that the dip in BA was unreasonable. Also the RBI% from a season ago should have been closer to 35% than the 29% posted. Bounce back expected and a serious value at his 9th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.218(-0.088)| Contact Rate: 83%(1%)| HR Distance: 386ft(-15)| HR BBS: 100.8(-3.6)| HardHIt%: 35%(-2.6%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.1)| Elevation%: 16.7(4.3)| Barrels%: 7.8%(0.8%)| HR/FB%: 18%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.3)| EYE: 0.74(-0.09)| ISO: 19.2%(-3.5%)
Goldschmidt, Paul Nice increase in contact rate from 76% to 80%, but don't buy into the 304 BA. Hard Hit rate dropped from 47% to 28%, yet BABIP went up from 304 to 364. Expect HR/FB rate to grow however as his 11% rate muted his HR potential. With the addition of Nolan Arenado into the lineup, there should be plenty of RBI upside in his 8th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.364(0.061)| Contact Rate: 80%(4%)| HR Distance: 398ft(-12)| HR BBS: 106.3(1.0)| HardHIt%: 28%(-20%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.9)| Elevation%: 11.7(-3.6)| Barrels%: 10.7%(-0.6%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.0)| EYE: 0.86(0.39)| ISO: 16.2%(-5.4%)
Smith, Dominic Smith had a breakout season and torrid September in 2020. Batting a solid .316/.355/.616 with 10 homers. Smith has emerged as a star in his age-25 season with 32 extra-base hits, 43 RBIs, and a .993 OPS in 50 games. - tmaher | The BA is likely not sustainable as it was based on a 368 BABIP, and the HR/FB rate of 22% is likely to come back down to the 18-10% range. Other than that the 22% K rate and 76% contact rate are very encouraging for a hitter turning 26 this season. 2020 BABIP: 0.368(0.048)| Contact Rate: 76%(1%)| HR Distance: 403ft(4)| HR BBS: 104.1(2.2)| HardHIt%: 37.8%(1.0%)| 95MPH+%: 46.7%(11.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.8)| Elevation%: 10.8(-4.0)| Barrels%: 13.3%(5.8%)| HR/FB%: 22%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.1)| EYE: 0.31(-0.12)| ISO: 29.9%(5.6%)
LeMahieu, DJ LeMahieu put up a monster BA last season with his 364 BA. Although he's an extreme contact hitter with elite 95MPH+ rates (46%), that number was fueled by a lucky 270 BABIP. Also unsustainable was his 27% HR/FB rate. Yes he plays in a hitters ballpark with insane talent around him. That said he's a relative bargain in the late 3rd round. 2020 BABIP: 0.370(0.021)| Contact Rate: 90%(4%)| HR Distance: 361ft(-25)| HR BBS: 98.1(-4.0)| HardHIt%: 35%(-5.3%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.4)| Elevation%: 2.3(-4.4)| Barrels%: 2.9%(-4.6%)| HR/FB%: 27%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.7(0.8)| EYE: 0.86(0.35)| ISO: 22.6%(3.5%)
Marte, Ketel Ignore Marte's 2020 season as it was a short blip and not representative of who he is as a hitter. Marte is a season removed from a 32/92RBI/329 campaign. Granted the BA and HR totals are likely not sustainable, but we're still looking at a hitting that is just entering the prime of his career. He's going to blow away his 7th round ADP. 2020 BABIP: 0.311(-0.031)| Contact Rate: 88%(4%)| HR Distance: 388ft(-17)| HR BBS: 100.8(-4.1)| HardHIt%: 33%(-9%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.6)| Elevation%: 10.0(-1.5)| Barrels%: 3.7%(-5.6%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-15%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.2)| EYE: 0.33(-0.29)| ISO: 12.2%(-14.2%)
Lowe, Brandon The 26 year-old finished 2020 batting .269 with 14 longballs, 37 RBI, 36 runs scored, and 3 stolen bases (0 caught) across 224 PA. There was understandably some skepticism about Lowe entering the campaign after he batted .270 last season with 17 dingers, 51 RBI, 42 runs scored, and 5 stolen bases in 327 PA while fanning 35% of the time. But he's hit for about the same average and raised his ISO from .24 to .29 while slashing his strikeout rate to an acceptable 26%. A key to Lowe's game? Plenty of hard contact - Statcast shows a 43% hard-hit rate last season and 43% this year, with a 14% barrel rate in 2019 and an even better 18% in 2020. He's raised his contact rate slightly from just under 65% to nearly 67% while trimming the swinging strike rate from 19% to 15%. - ahodge 2020 BABIP: 0.309(-0.068)| Contact Rate: 67%(2%)| HR Distance: 406ft(3)| HR BBS: 103.7(-0.8)| HardHIt%: 43.1%(0.2%)| 95MPH+%: 43.1%(-3.1%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.3)| Elevation%: 18.1(-0.6)| Barrels%: 17.5%(1.2%)| HR/FB%: 24%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.1)| EYE: 0.43(0.21)| ISO: 28.5%(4.2%)
Moustakas, Mike Not many hitters that qualify at second base with a +20% ISO and 17% HR/FB rate, which makes Moustakas a valued target. His 230 BA from a season ago was in part because of an unlucky 174 Singles%...and based on his 49% 90+MPH%, that appears to be a fluke. 2020 BABIP: 0.247(-0.003)| Contact Rate: 79%(1%)| HR Distance: 391ft(-11)| HR BBS: 101.6(-2.7)| HardHIt%: 38%(-3.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.5)| Elevation%: 16.3(-0.8)| Barrels%: 9.5%(-0.8%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.0)| EYE: 0.50(-0.04)| ISO: 23.7%(-2.5%)
Altuve, Jose HR/FB rate dropped back down to 11% last year from the unsustainable 23% in 2019. We also saw a big dip in his HardHIt% which dropped from 41% to a historical norm 31%. His K rate jumped to 18%. If he was indeed getting his pitches tipped in previous seasons, then the drop in production is legit. That said there will be a rebound in BA as his 250 BABIP was flat out unlucky. The former 2nd or 3rd round selection is a value at his current 9th round ADP.2020 BABIP: 0.250(-0.053)| Contact Rate: 80%(-1%)| HR Distance: 396ft(0)| HR BBS: 99.7(-3.8)| HardHIt%: 31%(-10%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.6)| Elevation%: 9.3(0.5)| Barrels%: 4.6%(-3.5%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.7(0.1)| EYE: 0.44(-0.06)| ISO: 12.5%(-12.7%)
There are over 125 other players that we present as values and under represented in their ADP this season. Become a member today!
Baez, Javier Contact Rate dropped to only 64% last season, which is significant. On the plus side he's hitting the ball harder than ever. His 423 average distance on his HRs is among the highest tin the league. His 36% Hard Hit% was stable, yet his 17% HR/FB rate was one of the lowest he's ever posted. On top of that he was very unlucky on BABIP, with only a 262, which adversely affected his BA. Expect a significant bounce back. 2020 BABIP: 0.262(-0.083)| Contact Rate: 64%(-3%)| HR Distance: 423ft(19)| HR BBS: 105.6(0.9)| HardHIt%: 36%(-1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.6)| Elevation%: 10.3(2.7)| Barrels%: 8.1%(-4.6%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.09(-0.09)| ISO: 15.8%(-9.2%)
Gimenez, Andres Gimenez doesn't take a lot of walks, but he does strikeout a lot either. What's encouraging about him is his gap power which will develop into HR power. Will steal 20 bases with everyday role, which may come in 2021. He's been electric this spring. Still very young at only 22, but his future is bright. (77 Contact rate). 2020 BABIP: 0.318(0.318)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| HR Distance: 382ft(382)| HR BBS: 103.9(103.9)| HardHIt%: 22.0%(22.0%)| 95MPH+%: 26.4%(26.4%)| Avg Velocity: 87(86.8)| Elevation%: 13.5(13.5)| Barrels%: 3.3%(3.3%)| HR/FB%: 10%(10%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(1.3)| EYE: 0.25(-0.02)| ISO: 13.6%(13.6%)
Andrus, Elvis Lets ignore the 2020 season where he posted a sub 200 BA and only 3 SBs. The stolen bases returned for Andrus in 2019 (31 for 39) and so did his average and RBI/RS contribution. His Hard Hit rate is about league average, but his heavy groundball rates keep his HRs at bay. Late round value. 2020 BABIP: 0.200(-0.105)| Contact Rate: 82%(0%)| HR Distance: 391ft(-10)| HR BBS: 99.9(-1.4)| HardHIt%: 37.5%(-1.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.3)| Elevation%: 9.2(2.1)| Barrels%: 5.7%(2.2%)| HR/FB%: 10%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.5)| EYE: 0.53(0.18)| ISO: 13.6%(1.8%)
Adames, Willy The 25 year-old finished 2020 batting .259 with 8 homers, 16 RBI, 29 runs scored, and 2 steal (1 caught). He's still young, but several years into his MLB career, the centerpiece of the deal that landed David Price in Detroit doesn't appear to be making a major breakthrough... yet. But there's something interesting going on underneath the hood. While Statcast shows a career-best 38% 95MPH+ rate and he's elevated to an 10% walk rate reminiscent of his minor-league days, Adames' strikeout rate has jumped to 40% and he's raised his launch angle to a career-high 12.5 (previous high was 10.7, last season). Moreover, Adames has become an extreme pull hitter, as he's yanked 55% of batted balls toward left field. His 40% groundball rate is a career low while his swinging-strike rate is up to a career-worst 15% and his contact rate is also down to a career-low 64% that's way down from the 74-76% he posted the last two seasons. It seems that someone is trying to tap into his raw power to become a slugger. - ahodge 2020 BABIP: 0.388(0.068)| Contact Rate: 64%(-12%)| HR Distance: 395ft(-2)| HR BBS: 104.5(2.0)| HardHIt%: 36.9%(-5.3%)| 95MPH+%: 40.5%(5.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.0)| Elevation%: 12.5(2.5)| Barrels%: 9.9%(1.5%)| HR/FB%: 23%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.2)| EYE: 0.27(-0.03)| ISO: 22.2%(5.8%)
See the other positions in either the Draft Advisory Program or this link in the subscriber section. There are over 125 other players that we present as values and under represented in their ADP this season. Become a member today!
