Gerrit Cole, SP (NYY)
Cole fans have to be frustrated. Monday was the easy leg of his two-start week, but he was touched up by the soft-hitting Rangers. He allowed season highs in runs (5) and hits (7) en route to his second loss. His normally reliable slider was less-than stellar as two batted balls had exit velocities over 100 miles per hour. He therefore had to rely more on his fastball than usual and thus labored through five frames. Even with the subpar outing, Cole still has a 2.03 ERA (2.16 xFIP). He has finished in the top-five of Cy Young voting in four different seasons. Could this finally be the season he takes home the award? A 85/5 K/BB rate is one example of how ridiculously good he's been. But there's more. He has dramatically reduced his line drive rate throughout his career. He misses most bats, but when they do hit him the quality of contact and likelihood of landing for hits is low. There will probably be a little regression in home runs as Cole is allowing a 44% flyball rate but benefiting from a 9% HR/FB rate. However, those home runs rarely have runners on base because Cole rarely allows runners to reach base. Cole leads the American League in xFIP, CSW% and WHIP. Yep, this could be the year. Next up is the White Sox on Saturday.
Nick Madrigal, 2B (CHW)
NICK MADRIGAL CAN HIT HOME RUNS!!! Fears of finishing a long, illustrious career without a long ball were quelled on Monday as Madrigal lined a J.A. Happ fastball about a foot over the left field fence for his first career tater. It wasn't his hardest hit ball this season, but it was the first one to leave the field of play. The home run is great, but Madrigal contributed more than that on Monday, tallying three hits, including a double and three runs scored in Chicago's shellacking of the Twins. It was an important rebound as Madrigal has struggled lately. His batting average was down to .270 coming into the game. Now it's at .282, and that's largely based off a complete refusal to strike out. Madrigal's contact rate is an astronomical 95%. However, his quality of contact is among the worst in baseball, which is why his BABIP is languishing below .300. He certainly doesn't need to develop the home runs as no one bought into any power from the diminutive middle infielder, but he does need a little more exit velo in order to drive some more hits. Monday's breakout could be a sign of things to come.
Robbie Grossman, OF (DET)
Grossman uncharacteristically struck out three times on Monday, but characteristically he walked in Detroit's 4-1 win at Seattle. After a slow start in April, Grossman picked up his performance in May. He is hitting .296 over 14 games this month with 11 walks. In fact, his OBP throughout the whole season is .382. That would be right in line with his career high and strengthens the argument for Grossman's viability in OBP leagues and points leagues. This season he is also well on his way to setting a career high in stolen bases. He currently has seven. Grossman's BABIP will usually drag because of a high launch angle that leads to more fly balls than someone with his lack of elite power should target. It's no wonder the season with his best batting average (2016) is the season with his highest line drive rate. The stolen bases and phenomenal EYE keep Grossman relevant, although the fantasy format is crucial in determining just how high his value can go.
Ian Kennedy, RP (TEX)
Kennedy picked up his AL-leading 11th save on Monday, silencing the Yankees in a 1-2-3 ninth inning. He struck out his 21st batter in his 17th inning. In fact, the strikeouts are way up for Kennedy, who hasn't had a swinging strike rate over 10% since he was with the Padres (he was with the Padres?). This year it's 15%. Kennedy's a "throw 2020 out" kind of player. He was miserable but unlucky last season. More importantly however, Kennedy finally decided to eliminate his cutter. It was an atrocious pitch that never really worked. Instead, he is throwing his fastball 81% of the time. That seems insane, but it's working as batters are only hitting .178 off the pitch. It took a while, but Kennedy seemed to figure out what he's capable of at this stage of his career. It's a good fastball and Kennedy's hold on the Rangers' closer job is solid right now.
J.A. Happ, SP (MIN)
Happ was on the losing end of a matchup between veteran left-handers. The Twins starter allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks in less than four innings. He only struck out one batter. He has now allowed 15 runs in seven innings over his last two starts. Happ's best "season" in several years was actually the nine-start 2020 campaign. A 3.47 ERA was supported by some favorable peripheral statistics. However, it was 2020 and it was an outlier. For the most part Happ's skills have been in decline and therefore his production is lacking. His ability to miss bats has disappeared. What was consistently a 10% (or thereabouts) swinging strike rate is down to six percent in 2021. Opposing hitters are making very good contact. Furthermore his flyball rate is way up but his HR/FB rate is way down. That foreshadows more balls leaving the park in future starts. The danger is written on the wall with the nearly 39-year-old veteran.
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