Max Fried-Braves-SP
Max Fried went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 3 BB, and 2 K's against the Pirates. Through seven starts Fried has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. On the surface, it looks as if Fried is really struggling but a deeper dive reveals a very different pitcher post-injury. Fried gave up 14 ER in his first three starts prior to the injury. Since coming off the injured list on May 5 he has given up 4 ER in four starts. His skills have also taken a step forward with an increase in strikeouts (25% K) which is backed up by an increase in swinging-strike rate (13% SwStr) and called strikes plus whiffs (30% CSW). The increase in strikeouts has been a result of increased slider usage which is a plus pitch. Fried is an awesome buy-low candidate right now if your league mates are simply looking at surface stats.
Zack Wheeler-Phillies-SP
Zack Wheeler went 7.1 IP and gave up 1 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 12 K's against the Red Sox. Wheeler has a 2.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through ten starts. The increased production has come as a result of an increase in his strikeout rate (28% K). The increase in strikeouts is backed up by a career-high swinging-strike rate (12% SwStr) and called strikes plus whiffs (28% CSW). This a result of a better pitch mix (increased slider usage) and tunneling between his fastball and slider. If you look at this strike zone plot by pitch, he is doing an excellent job of locating his pitches right on the edge of the zone. Wheeler always had plus stuff and the potential to miss bats so it is awesome to see him make the necessary changes. He figures to keep the train rolling with his next start in Tampa, a great pitching park.
Freddy Peralta-Brewers-SP
Freddy Peralta went 4.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 3 H, 4 BB, and 7 K's against the Reds. Peralta has been absolutely dominant to start the year with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He is missing bats at an elite rate (39% K) which is backed up by 15% swinging strikes and 33% called strikes plus whiffs. The walk rate is slightly concerning at 11% BB but if he can continue to miss bats at such an elite clip they are not a major problem. Peralta has benefited from luck (.209 BABIP and 84% LOB) but even with regression, he would still be one of the top fantasy arms in the game. The concerns going forward are that he is primarily a two-pitch pitcher (FB, SL) and that he has not pitched more than 85 IP at the major league level and hasn't gone over 100 IP since 2018 (141.1 IP between AAA and the Majors). These concerns may factor in later in the season but for now, we have to continue to ride him and he gets a nice matchup against the Nationals next week.
Luis Castillo-Reds-SP
Luis Castillo went 5 IP and gave up 5 ER on 5 H, 4 BB, and 5K's against the Brewers. Castillo has been beyond disappointing to start the year. He was drafted as an ace and has produced a 7.61 ERA and 1.80 WHIP through ten starts. It can't all be blamed on bad luck (.382 BABIP and 54% LOB) because his skills have nose-dived. His strikeout has fallen to 20% K and hard contact has risen to 40% Hard. The biggest issue for Castillo has been a lock of command of his pitches. The velocity has rebounded after his first couple of starts but he hasn't had command of any of his pitches (FB, SL, or CH). The easiest way to visualize this is to look at this is through Baseball Savant heatmaps. His fastball is sitting middle-middle and his slider is all over the place. In 2020, his fastball sat at the top of the zone with his slider and changeup working the low outside corners. It is most likely a mechanical issue but that also means we have no idea of when/if that will get corrected this season. The talent is too high to give up on but benching until we see noticeable changes might be the way to go.
Avisail Garcia-Brewers-OF
Avisail Garcia was 2-4 with an HR (7), 2R, 2 RBI, and 1 SB against the Reds. Garcia is slashing .252/.329/.422 with 7 HR, 23 R, 25 RBI, and 4 SB. He has good plate skills with 26% K and 9% BB to go along with elite quality of contact (51% Hard and 11% Barrels). His batting average is not what you would expect given his quality of contact and profile (51% GB and 21% LD). His .272 xBA is not predictive but it does give an indication of his skills. It is also in line with his career .270 AVG which in combination with his power/speed combo makes him a very attractive fantasy player. Even with Christian Yelich back, Garica has been playing every day which is a huge boost to his overall value.
DFS Value Plays: OF Eddie Rosario ($3,400) and OF Jarred Kelenic ($3,700) on DraftKings
This is just a small sample of our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 daily player updates sent to your inbox every morning and track your team online. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
