It's Week 10 of the fantasy baseball season, which means we're a little over one-third of the way through the regular season. In the closer landscape, there's currently one player on pace for 50+ saves (Mark Melancon),two on pace for 40+ (Liam Hendriks & Alex Reyes), eight on pace for 30+, and 14 on pace for 20+. Those numbers don't seem terrible, but when compared with just 10 years ago, the differences are staggering. In 2011, there were 8 closers with 40+ saves, 11 closers with 30+ saves, and 7 closers with 20+ saves. To demonstrate this another way, the top-25 closers in 2011 accounted for a total of 880 saves. If we make a broad assumption and simply take the current top-25 closers and multiple their save totals by 3, they total just 765 saves. Given the higher percentage of teams using a bullpen by committee (roughly 1/3), this isn't a surprise, but the disappearance of the closer is an issue the fantasy industry will need to address sooner rather than later.
For now, let's get you up-to-date on some news around the current closing landscape.
Around the League:
-As we expected, we saw the changing of the guard in Baltimore this week as Paul Frye tallied two consecutive saves for the Orioles. Brandon Hyde's decision to go with Frye allows for Tanner Scott to stay in the set-up role where he has thrived. It's worth mentioning that presumed closer in spring training, Hunter Henry, was activated from the injured list on Friday. He'll need to prove he can be effective, but he's a deep sleeper for saves that likely was dropped in most leagues. Frye has really upped his strikeout rate the last two seasons thanks to big jumps in velocity on his fastball. After averaging 91 MPH each of his first two seasons, he's averaging close to 94 MPH this year and has allowed runs in just 3 games this season. He's unlikely to be usurped unless he hits a rough patch.
-Good news for Seattle and fantasy owners alike, Kendall Graveman was cleared to end his quarantine. He hasn't been activated yet and since he hasn't pitched his May 16th, it's possible he'll need some work before actually re-joining the club. In his absence, Rafael Montero and Keynan Middleton pitched quite well, but it's unlikely there's any controversy here since Graveman is still yet to be scored upon this season.
-Hansel Robles has allowed runs in 4 straight outings and 5 of his last 6. It's only resulted in one loss over that stretch and he still converted a pair of saves, but Taylor Rogers has pitched better. Nonetheless, manager Rocco Baldelli hasn't lost confidence in Robles and continues to use him and Rogers equally in save situations. Meanwhile, just when it looked like Alex Colome has righted the ship, he fell right back down over the last couple of weeks and seems unlikely to emerge into higher leverage situations anytime soon. The Twins bullpen is quickly becoming an "avoid completely" situation, at least until someone can find some consistency. Funny - it's almost like without established roles, the relievers aren't able to settle in and find their groove.
-Kansas City placed closer Josh Staumont on the injured list last weekend with a knee strain and in his absence, Greg Holland has gone scoreless and notched a save. The injury looks to be relatively short-term and reports have been positive for Staumont in regards to his recovery and was seen throwing on Thursday. Definitely don't drop him because he'll likely reclaim his role upon his activation.
-The Reds are another frustrating situation for fantasy owners as Tejay Antone has been the bullpen's most lethal weapon, but because of that, David Bell has utilized him in the highest leverage situations in most changes regardless of the inning. When he isn't pitching the ninth, Bell tends to go with Lucas Sims, who has been hit or miss. Both players sprinkle in enough saves to be worth owning, but neither should be viewed as full-time closers because of their usage. Antone has really blossomed this year thanks to his curveball, which has an impressive 4.97 wCB/c rating and consequently, he has upped the usage from 17% in 2020 to 34% in 2021.
-Want to hear a funny joke? Jake Karinchak. That's all. That was the joke.
-But really, Karinchak is having a head-scratcher of a season. After being crowned the undisputed closer in the pre-season, Karinchak quickly lost the role after a shaky camp before eventually pseudo-winning it back in mid-May. But just when he won it back, he posts 7 earned runs over his last 5 appearances with just 6 strikeouts and 6 walks. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Clase hasn't been nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season, so Nick Wittgren is likely in the best position to take advantage of Karinchak's struggles - or had been anyway. Down 2-1 on Friday, Wittgren was pitching in the 8th inning when he allowed a run on 3 hits and a walk. It didn't change the outcome of the game, but it's not the type of outing you want to see from a reliever trying to make his case for saves. Karinchak and Clase remain holds - they'll likely work out their struggles, you'll just need some patience.
-What a strange year for JP Feyereisen. He entered spring training without a clear shot at making the big league roster for the Brewers, but forced his way into the bullpen after an impressive camp. He went on to be one of the Brewers most consistent set-up men while they led the NL Central before getting dealt to the Rays, where he proceeded to essentially lock down a closing role that hasn't been held by one single player in at least two years - not even Nick Anderson managed to do it. Nonetheless, with four straight Rays saves, it certainly looks like Feyereisen is Tampa's closer.
Non-Closing Relievers to Watch:
-Jesus Luzardo was activated from the injured list this week, but he slid into the A's bullpen, not rotation. While that seems disappointing on the surface, Luzardo has been remarkably effective in relief. In four innings of work, Luzardo has allowed just 2 hits, a walk, and no runs while striking out 7. His upside as a high strikeout reliever will once again give him mixed league appeal, so if he was dropped in your league, he needs to be scooped up immediately. His manager, Bob Melvin, summed it up really well, "It allows him to just go out there and get after it every pitch. Sometimes in a starting role you have to pace yourself and establish a certain pitch before you go to others and give a different look the second time around. It allows him to just go out there and use his weapons how he wants and how he feels . . . I think at this point it works pretty well for him."
-The entire Cubs bullpen has been pitching well, but rookie Tommy Nance has started his career with 8 scoreless appearances, giving up just 2 hits and striking out 8. Since getting the call on May 17th, he has already tallied 4 holds. His 25% called strike rate is likely small sample noise, but when paired with his 10% SwStr%, it's easy to understand why he's been so effective. Ride it while you can, but given his mediocre walk rate in the minors, it's more likely those borderline called will eventually be balls rather than strikes leading to likely regression across the board.
-The closer of the future in Boston is left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez who has 7 straight scoreless appearances with a 9:5 strikeout-to-walk rate and no hits allowed over that stretch. Additionally, in those 7 appearances, he has managed a 71% groundball rate. He has room for growth in both fastball effectiveness and command, but the raw tools are on display right now. He has holds in 2 of his last 3 games.
Closer Chart & Handcuff Ranking By Team:
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It's Week 11 of the fantasy baseball season, which means we're a little over one-third of the way through the regular season. In the closer landscape, there's currently one player on pace for 50+ saves (Mark Melancon),two on pace for 40+ (Liam Hendriks & Alex Reyes), eight on pace for 30+, and 14 on pace for 20+. Those numbers don't seem terrible, but when compared with just 10 years ago, the differences are staggering. In 2011, there were 8 closers with 40+ saves, 11 closers with 30+ saves, and 7 closers with 20+ saves. To demonstrate this another way, the top-25 closers in 2011 accounted for a total of 880 saves. If we make a broad assumption and simply take the current top-25 closers and multiple their save totals by 3, they total just 765 saves. Given the higher percentage of teams using a bullpen by committee (roughly 1/3), this isn't a surprise, but the disappearance of the closer is an issue the fantasy industry will need to address sooner rather than later.
For now, let's get you up-to-date on some news around the current closing landscape.
Around the League:
-As we expected, we saw the changing of the guard in Baltimore this week as Paul Frye tallied two consecutive saves for the Orioles. Brandon Hyde's decision to go with Frye allows for Tanner Scott to stay in the set-up role where he has thrived. It's worth mentioning that presumed closer in spring training, Hunter Henry, was activated from the injured list on Friday. He'll need to prove he can be effective, but he's a deep sleeper for saves that likely was dropped in most leagues. Frye has really upped his strikeout rate the last two seasons thanks to big jumps in velocity on his fastball. After averaging 91 MPH each of his first two seasons, he's averaging close to 94 MPH this year and has allowed runs in just 3 games this season. He's unlikely to be usurped unless he hits a rough patch.
-Good news for Seattle and fantasy owners alike, Kendall Graveman was cleared to end his quarantine. He hasn't been activated yet and since he hasn't pitched his May 16th, it's possible he'll need some work before actually re-joining the club. In his absence, Rafael Montero and Keynan Middleton pitched quite well, but it's unlikely there's any controversy here since Graveman is still yet to be scored upon this season.
-Hansel Robles has allowed runs in 4 straight outings and 5 of his last 6. It's only resulted in one loss over that stretch and he still converted a pair of saves, but Taylor Rogers has pitched better. Nonetheless, manager Rocco Baldelli hasn't lost confidence in Robles and continues to use him and Rogers equally in save situations. Meanwhile, just when it looked like Alex Colome has righted the ship, he fell right back down over the last couple of weeks and seems unlikely to emerge into higher leverage situations anytime soon. The Twins bullpen is quickly becoming an "avoid completely" situation, at least until someone can find some consistency. Funny - it's almost like without established roles, the relievers aren't able to settle in and find their groove.
-Kansas City placed closer Josh Staumont on the injured list last weekend with a knee strain and in his absence, Greg Holland has gone scoreless and notched a save. The injury looks to be relatively short-term and reports have been positive for Staumont in regards to his recovery and was seen throwing on Thursday. Definitely don't drop him because he'll likely reclaim his role upon his activation.
-The Reds are another frustrating situation for fantasy owners as Tejay Antone has been the bullpen's most lethal weapon, but because of that, David Bell has utilized him in the highest leverage situations in most changes regardless of the inning. When he isn't pitching the ninth, Bell tends to go with Lucas Sims, who has been hit or miss. Both players sprinkle in enough saves to be worth owning, but neither should be viewed as full-time closers because of their usage. Antone has really blossomed this year thanks to his curveball, which has an impressive 4.97 wCB/c rating and consequently, he has upped the usage from 17% in 2020 to 34% in 2021.
-Want to hear a funny joke? Jake Karinchak. That's all. That was the joke.
-But really, Karinchak is having a head-scratcher of a season. After being crowned the undisputed closer in the pre-season, Karinchak quickly lost the role after a shaky camp before eventually pseudo-winning it back in mid-May. But just when he won it back, he posts 7 earned runs over his last 5 appearances with just 6 strikeouts and 6 walks. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Clase hasn't been nearly as effective as he was earlier in the season, so Nick Wittgren is likely in the best position to take advantage of Karinchak's struggles - or had been anyway. Down 2-1 on Friday, Wittgren was pitching in the 8th inning when he allowed a run on 3 hits and a walk. It didn't change the outcome of the game, but it's not the type of outing you want to see from a reliever trying to make his case for saves. Karinchak and Clase remain holds - they'll likely work out their struggles, you'll just need some patience.
-What a strange year for JP Feyereisen. He entered spring training without a clear shot at making the big league roster for the Brewers, but forced his way into the bullpen after an impressive camp. He went on to be one of the Brewers most consistent set-up men while they led the NL Central before getting dealt to the Rays, where he proceeded to essentially lock down a closing role that hasn't been held by one single player in at least two years - not even Nick Anderson managed to do it. Nonetheless, with four straight Rays saves, it certainly looks like Feyereisen is Tampa's closer.
Non-Closing Relievers to Watch:
-Jesus Luzardo was activated from the injured list this week, but he slid into the A's bullpen, not rotation. While that seems disappointing on the surface, Luzardo has been remarkably effective in relief. In four innings of work, Luzardo has allowed just 2 hits, a walk, and no runs while striking out 7. His upside as a high strikeout reliever will once again give him mixed league appeal, so if he was dropped in your league, he needs to be scooped up immediately. His manager, Bob Melvin, summed it up really well, "It allows him to just go out there and get after it every pitch. Sometimes in a starting role you have to pace yourself and establish a certain pitch before you go to others and give a different look the second time around. It allows him to just go out there and use his weapons how he wants and how he feels . . . I think at this point it works pretty well for him."
-The entire Cubs bullpen has been pitching well, but rookie Tommy Nance has started his career with 8 scoreless appearances, giving up just 2 hits and striking out 8. Since getting the call on May 17th, he has already tallied 4 holds. His 25% called strike rate is likely small sample noise, but when paired with his 10% SwStr%, it's easy to understand why he's been so effective. Ride it while you can, but given his mediocre walk rate in the minors, it's more likely those borderline called will eventually be balls rather than strikes leading to likely regression across the board.
-The closer of the future in Boston is left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez who has 7 straight scoreless appearances with a 9:5 strikeout-to-walk rate and no hits allowed over that stretch. Additionally, in those 7 appearances, he has managed a 71% groundball rate. He has room for growth in both fastball effectiveness and command, but the raw tools are on display right now. He has holds in 2 of his last 3 games.
