Anthony DeSclafani went 9 IP and gave up 0 ER on 2 H, 1 BB, and 8 K's against the Nationals. DeSclafani has been very good this year. He has a 3.09 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through thirteen starts. DeSclafani has only an average strikeout rate (21% K) and walk rate (7% BB). His 11% SwStr suggests he could see a slight increase in his strikeout rate but not much more. He pitches in a great pitcher's park and keeps the ball in the yard (0.95 HR/9) due to 49% GB. He is pitching over his head (.249 BABIP) but even if he regresses to his SIERA (4.19), he will still be fantasy viable. DeSclafani is more of a streamer than rotation fixture when it comes to fantasy despite what his traditional numbers suggest.
Sandy Alcantara went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Braves. Alcantara has been great to start the year. He has a 3.39 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through fourteen starts. Alcantara has an average strikeout rate (23% K) but there is room for growth (13% Swstr and 29% CSW) and his ability to work deep into games allows him to have near-elite totals without having an elite strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is also very manageable when you combine it with good control (7% BB) and the ability to get ground balls (54% GB). This also helps him post above-average ratios. Alcantara also benefits from pitching half of his games in a very pitcher-friendly park. He gets a road start next week but it is in St. Louis which is another pitcher-friendly park against an average offense.
Dylan Carlson was 1-5 with 1 2B, 1 R, and 1 RBI against the Cubs. Carlson is hitting .264 with 6 HR, 32 R, 27 RBI, and 0 SB. He has been a productive hitter (113wRC+) but has been a disappointment so far from a fantasy perspective. The average and power are not elite and he hasn't stolen a base yet. Carlson has good plate skills (24% K and 10% BB) but his quality of contact has been lacking. His 34% Hard and 6% Barrels are below league average. He was also profiled as a power/speed threat after going 26 HR/20 SB between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. His sprint speed is 69th percentile which means he has the speed to steal bases but hasn't even attempted one this year. Success is not linear for prospects and he is still improving in small increments but his fantasy value for this year has taken a hit due to lower than expected power output and no speed. The positives are the plate skills and lineup spot (2nd). Carlson has the skills to be a five-category producer for fantasy but that may not come until 2022.
Joc Pederson was 3-4 with 1 HR (8), 1 R, and 3 RBI against the Cardinals. Pederson has been leading off for the Cubs which is a great spot for him from a fantasy perspective. The flip side of that is that he is not taking advantage of the increased at-bats. He is hitting .250 AVG with 8 HR, 22 R, 25 RBI, and 0 SB. While speed has not been a part of his game at the major league level, power has been and he has struggled so far. Pederson is sporting a near career-low .196 ISO. The problem is that he is reaching more out of the zone (37%) than at any point in his career. The narrative of having to prove himself as an everyday player in Chicago has seemed to affect his approach at the plate. The good news is that his quality of contact is still elite (53% Hard and 11% Barrels) so there is a good chance that he turns this around. Success should follow a lower strikeout rate and chase rate.
Starling Marte was 0-3 with a run scored against the Braves. Marte has missed time with injury but he has been phenomenal when on the field. He is hitting .350 with 5 HR, 24 R, 12 RBI, and 6 SB in 29 GP. His plate skills remain above average (20% K and 12% BB) as well as the quality of contact (41% Hard and 10% Barrels). Marte is benefiting from a .408 BABIP which is going to regress towards his career (.343 BABIP). Regardless of sample size and regression, Marte is an elite fantasy contributor even in Miami and is showing no signs of slowing down.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000) and 2B/SS Brendan Rodgers ($3,000)
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