Trevor Larnach was 1-3 with an HR (7) and 1 BB against the White Sox. Larnach is in the lineup most days and when he is starting he is batting third which is an indication of the Twins belief in his potential. He is hitting .262 with 7 HR, 23 R, 19 RBI, and 1 SB. He has swing and miss to his game (30% K) but this was known coming up as a prospect and he counters it with a good eye at the plate (10% BB). Larnach has the potential to be a viable fantasy asset with that strikeout rate given his power upside. At the major league level, he has shown elite batted ball stats (42% Hard, 12% Barrels, and 116 maxEV) which are great indicators for power. The Twins will likely be trading off pieces as the trade deadline approaches so Larnach should start to see everyday playing time shortly.
Andrew Heaney went 5.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Red Sox. Heaney has stayed healthy which is important to note but the results have not been there through 15 GS (5.38 ERA and 1.35 WHIP). The core skills for Heaney are strong as ever (29% K and 8% BB) but he has been undone by home runs (1.76 HR/9). Heaney has also been unfortunate when it comes to guys on base (69% LOB) and batted balls (.328 BABIP) which helps explain why he has a 5.40 ERA but a 3.64 SIERA. It's hard to believe things turn around for Heaney in a significant way given his propensity to give up the long ball (Career 1.55 HR/9). He gives up a ton of fly balls (44% FB) and hard contact (45% Hard and 10% Barrels) which makes it unlikely that his home run rate comes down which is driving most of his struggles.
Eduardo Rodriguez-Red Sox-SP
Eduardo Rodriguez went 5 IP and gave up 4 ER on 9 H, 0 BB, and 5 K's against the Angels. Rodriguez through 17 starts has a 5.52 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. It has been a perplexing season for the left-hander. His core skills are better than ever (27% K, 6% BB, 29% CSW) but the traditional numbers indicate otherwise. His velocity is down half a tick but overall his arsenal remains the same. His biggest issue has been poor luck on batted balls (.361 BABIP) and 65% LOB (Career 74%). This is one of the reasons why Rodriguez's ERA estimators (3.48 SIERA) are more bullish if the skills remain the same going forward. It's hard to buy a pitcher with an ERA over five but the core skills are there for Rodriguez to turn it around.
Kyle Gibson went 6.1 IP and gave up 5 ER on 8 H, 2 BB, and 7 K's against the Orioles. It has now been 17 GS for Gibson and he has a 2.29 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. He has been extremely lucky on balls in plays .254 BABIP (career .304) and with guys on base (84% LOB). The core skills are underwhelming (21% K and 8% BB). Gibson does get a fair amount of ground balls (51% GB) but his 9.5% HR/FB would be only the second time in his career that he was below double-digits. Regression is coming for the 33-year-old right-hander and this is evident in his 4.17 SIERA. Keep rolling him out there during this insane hot streak but keep a close eye out for signs of regression like today.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa was 0-4 with 3 LOB against the Tigers. He was moved to the bottom of the order this week after primarily hitting leadoff. Kiner-Falefa has struggled over the past two weeks (.140 AVG, 17% K, and 22% Hard). Even with the recent cold streak, Kiner-Falefa has produced great value this year (.260 with 6 HR, 44 R, 30 RBI, and 15 SB). Most of his value comes from stolen bases which makes it even more important that he hits for average because he doesn't walk much (3% BB). He plays good defense, so he will continue to be in the lineup and will get out of this funk sooner rather than later.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Harold Ramirez ($3,400) and 1B Miguel Cabrera ($3,000)
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