Brandon Belt, 1B (SF)
Belt returned to the Giants' active roster after spending the last six weeks on the injured list with a knee injury. In spite of the layoff, Belt actually extended his hitting streak to 10 games with an RBI-single in the 9th inning of San Francisco's comeback win. He slots right back into a Giants offense that is much better than when he got hurt, and that should lead to a lot of run production in the final two months of the season. Belt is building off a strong 2020 campaign to post a .254 ISO with 11 home runs and 29 RBIs in 205 plate appearances. Because the Giants offense is the best it's been in years, it benefits Belt to be more aggressive and he has been, swinging at more than 46% of pitches, leading to a 12.6% swinging strike rate and a career-low 72.7% contact rate. However, he has a 48% hard-hit rate. Belt has the ability to provide some pop and that's a significant part of this retooled Giants lineup.
Sonny Gray, SP (CIN)
Gray continues to struggle mightily the third time through the lineup. He was unscored upon until the Pirates' top of the lineup got to him for four runs in the 5th inning. He still managed to pick up his fourth win, but he gave up four runs on six hits and two walks in five innings. He struck out seven batters and his ERA rose to 4.44. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts. He is getting bit by a .346 BABIP, 60 points higher than his career average. He allowed six hits on Thursday in spite of an 81-mph average exit velocity. He has been excellent at limiting hard contact and home runs and even walks, but his surface stats aren't reflecting those gains. The biggest concern is that 3rd-time-through-the-lineup issue. It will lead to shorter outings and less decisions, but he may be down enough that I'd buy in on Sonny Gray's dissipating value.
Alex Wood, SP (SF)
Wood struggled for the second straight start, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks in four innings at Arizona. He struck out five. He continues to use his slider more over the last month. On Thursday it led to two base hits, but on the season he is allowing a .157 batting average off his slider. Nonetheless, the back-to-back duds are concerning, especially with this most recent game coming against Arizona. His ERA is over 4.00 for the first time this season and it is worth noting he surpassed 100 innings after throwing less than 50 innings combined over the last two seasons. The good news is his velocity is steady, but clearly he is trusting his sinker less over the last few starts and that's the pitch that generates ground balls. Wood is at his best when he's getting ground balls. Right now he is not at his best.
Braxton Garrett, SP (MIA)
Braxton Garrett was recalled to make his fifth start of the season on Thursday. He managed to throw five scoreless innings while striking out six, although he did walk four batters. He used his 4-seam fastball 39 percent of the time but evenly distributed his four other pitches (changeup, curveball, sinker, slider). His sinker/slider were effective strike-generating pitches while his curveball continues to serve as his most effective pitch for generating outs. Garrett is a former number-7 overall pick who has overcome injuries to prove he is a major league caliber pitcher. However, after the Marlins' acquisition of Jesus Luzardo at the trade deadline, it's uncertain whether the left-handed Garrett fits into Miami's long-term plans. He has allowed less than three runs in every start this season and has a 1.50 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings over his last two starts. If he doesn't have a role with Miami, there will be plenty of other teams interested in Braxton Garrett's deep arsenal of pitches.
Rafael Ortega, OF (CHC)
Ortega continues to impress, improving his hitting streak to seven games with two hits, a walk and a stolen base in the Cubs' 6-5 loss at Colorado. At 30 years old, Ortega is getting his first opportunity to play every day after Chicago's trade deadline selloff. He started at the leadoff position for the ninth straight time and has four home runs with two stolen bases during that stretch. Ortega's production is supported by 45% hard-hit and sweet-spot rates. He has an improving barrel rate with a nice left-handed swing. Unfortunately he is dreadful against southpaws so his best prospect is a regular role on the strong side of an outfield platoon. Ortega could be an option for the rebuilding Cubs next season. He has shown enough pop and speed in the minor leagues, and now in an extended stint in the majors, to force the conversation next draft season. Yes, he is 30, but he hit 21 home runs with 14 stolen bases in AAA for Atlanta in 2019. He makes good contact, plays quality defense and should get a chance for the remainder of this season and perhaps beyond.
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