Lucas Giolito, SP (CHW)
Giolito rebounded from an ugly start against Kansas City to deliver one of his best performances of the year. Gio allowed two hits and one run in eight innings with eight strikeouts. He didn't walk anyone. Giolito has mostly been good but has the occasional dud. The frustrating part, from a fantasy standpoint, is his duds are unpredictable, oftentimes coming against below-average offenses. Gio gives up home runs. His lone run on Monday was a longball by Miguel Sano. He's a flyball pitcher and the home run is his Achilles heel. That leads to inconsistency because a few extra feet on a long fly ball could be the difference between giving up 3-4 runs or pitching a shutout. On that note, Giolito's 15% HR/FB rate is the longest of his career (excluding two short stints in 2016 and 2017). The White Sox Opening Day starter is still a plug-and-play regardless so you'll live with the occasional home run mishaps for the generally above-average and sometimes elite performance.
Luis Robert, OF (CHW)
The White Sox are getting healthy and that offense is even more terrifying. In his long-awaited return from a hip injury Robert delivered two hits, including an RBI double, in five plate appearances, striking out one time. Will the White Sox temper his baserunning coming off the injury and limit the stolen base attempts? That would siphon some of his value; however, he is still capable of putting up monster numbers over the final two months. He hit a 106-mph ground ball single in his final at bat of the game, showing just what kind of power he possesses. Robert's ultimate development depends on his plate discipline, which has been miserable through his first 300 career at bats. Don't expect the batting average to hang around .300, but the power/speed combination is stupendous.
Miguel Sano, 1B (MIN)
Sano hit a 116.7-mph rocket 429 feet for his 19th home run of the season. It was one of only two hits for the Twins and led to their only run. It was Sano's second straight game with a homer, and he tends to hit them in bunches. The big first baseman has a career 92.9 average exit velocity, but it had been trending up, even reaching 95.2 in 2020. However, it is down to 92.4 this season, which contributed to a 6.5% drop in barrel rate. Therefore, his ISO is down from a peak of .329 in 2019 to .274 in 2020 to .238 this year. It hasn't been offset by better contact or a better batting average. A draft day investment in Miguel Sano is a plan for a .300+ ISO with 30 or more homers. He is likely to fall short of those numbers this season. So if Sano is only going to play 110 games and hit 25 homers with a .215 batting average, what really is his value on draft day? In order to offset all his shortcomings as a pure hitter, he needs that barrel rate to be over 20% with an average exit velocity around 94 or 95 miles per hour. It's not there this year.
Sam Hentges, SP (CLE)
Hentges gave up one run in two innings. Five batters reached base and he struck out one. Hentges' mid-90's fastball from the left side is supposed to be his ace pitch. He uses it more than half the time, but it is getting massacred this season. Opposing hitters have a .462 batting average with five of the seven home runs he's allowed coming off his heater. His whiff percentage is a measly 9.7%. Yet his curveball, which he deploys about 26% of the time, has been very good. It's his putaway pitch and batters generate very little contact. Unfortunately, Baseball 101 will tell you a pitcher is very rarely effective without a working fastball. And right now Hentges' fastball is not working. There is some long term potential here. He needs to cut down on his 12% walk rate and could benefit from some better luck (.410 BABIP, 62.3% LOB), but Hentges has the tools to be a strikeout weapon. An offseason to recalibrate that fastball would go a long way.
Beau Burrows, SP (MIN)
Burrows was obliterated by the White Sox, namely Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson, in two innings of work on Monday. He allowed seven runs (six earned) on five hits and three walks. Maybe using Burrows as an Opener isn't the right call. He has allowed at least one run in five of six appearances this season. He has walked 10 batters in 11 innings while striking out only eight. Needless to say, things are not going well for the 24 year old. His velocity was down on Monday, and it's almost as if his stuff doesn't really play as a reliever, he is completely ineffective as an Opener and he isn't good enough to be a starter. Not even on a bad team that traded away nearly its entire rotation. The light is dimming on the former prospect.
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