Ian Anderson (SP-ATL) continued to make progress toward returning to big league action as he fired 4.1 scoreless innings in a recent Triple-A start, scattering 4 hits and a walk while recording 6 punchouts. He appears on track to return after one more rehab start, perhaps in time for an outing against the Giants next weekend. The 23 year-old righty seems to be getting close to a return as far as building up his arm goes, as he threw 76 pitches in that outing. Anderson should be inserted into fantasy lineups when he is activated, as he has followed up his strong 2020 debut with a solid 2021 campaign. Through 18 starts (96 innings), he has compiled a 3.56 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. His xFIP of 3.72 indicates that the ERA is right about where it should be, although fantasy owners may be a bit disappointed that his strikeout rate is down a bit from last year's robust 11.4 clip. The good news is that his swinging-strike rate is an identical 12% while opposing hitters haven't made much more contact against him overall (72% in 2020, 74% in 2021). And while their hard-hit rate is up 8% to 40% per Statcast, Anderson has continued to induce lots of grounders (50%). Overall, Anderson is showing that his 2020 campaign wasn't a complete fluke.
Javier Baez (SS-CHC) should return from the IL (back) when he is eligible on Sunday. The 28 year-old slugger owns a .241 average to go with 24 homers, 68 RBI, and 13 stolen bases across 398 plate appearances in 2021. Baez's BABIP (.319) is only a touch low compared to his career clip (.331) so his average may not rebound much, especially if he continues to fan at a 36% clip that is only topped as his career worst by his 42% rate from his rookie campaign back in 2014. But thanks to a career-best 45% hard-hit rate per Statcast, Baez has tended to do damage when he's put the bat on the ball. It is concerning that his line-drive rate is under 15% (also his worst since 2014). I'm not hitting the panic button just yet because the hard contact is there, but a rising strikeout rate and declining liner rate are concerning.
Zach Eflin (SP-PHI) is expected to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Reading over the weekend as he recovers from right patella tendinitis that sidelined him back on July 20th. While the 27 year-old righty hasn't exactly dominated in 2021, he has been useful for fantasy. Through 18 starts (105.2 innings), Eflin claims a 4.17 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9. His 3.62 xFIP, however, does point to a .327 BABIP and 14% HR/FB inflating his era a bit, although it is worth noting that his career HR/FB sits at 15%. While he should be a solid mid-rotation type when he returns, it's worth noting that Eflin has surrendered a career-high 39% hard contact per Statcast. And, as has been the case throughout his career, the righty's strikeout potential is capped by a 10% swinging-strike rate while opposing hitters make about league-average contact against him (79%).
Kyle Davies (SP-CHC) got roughed up by Salvador Perez and the Royals on Friday afternoon as he allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk while striking out 5 over 6 innings of work. The 28 year-old righty tossed 60 of his 98 pitches for strikes and all of the damage against him came in the form of 4 solo homers. After turning in a promising 2020 campaign (2.73 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9, albeit with a 4.14 xFIP, over 12 starts) with the Padres, Davies has disappointed with the Cubs in 2021 as he has posted a 4.94 ERA, 6.9 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 across 26 starts (125.2 innings). His 5.01 xFIP suggests that he's been about as bad as his ERA indicates, as his normally-solid control regressed considerably and he's coughed up homers at a higher rate than ever before in his career (1.29 HR/9, 15% HR/FB). Opposing hitters have logged a career-high 45% hard-hit rate against Davies per Statcast while recording a 79% contact rate. Leave him on the waiver wire.
Hunter Greene (SP-CIN) has seemingly adjusted to the Triple-A level after a rough start there following his promotion from Double-A back in June. The 22 year-old flamethrower now owns a 4.18 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 through 10 starts (47.1 innings) at the Triple-A level. His 3.69 xFIP points to a 21% HR/FB in particular inflating his ERA a bit, and the longball has certainly been his biggest issue since the promotion. But that was not much of an issue in July, as he allowed only 2 homers over 5 starts, although he did cough up 3 in his most recent outing on August 17th. His control has improved considerably as he's been in Triple-A, as Greene has not issued more than 2 free passes in an outing since July 4. As his most recent start (4 runs on 4 hits (3 homers) and 1 walk with 4 punchouts over just 2.2 IP indicates, he still has some polishing to do before reaching the majors. But his previous outing (no runs on 1 hit and 1 walk with 10 strikeouts over 6.1 innings) hints at his tantalizing fantasy potential. Oh, and he was rated as the #27 overall prospect in all of baseball in MLB Pipeline's recently-updated rankings.
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