Logan Webb went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 1 BB, and 10 K's against the Brewers. Webb has taken a major step forward this year. He has a 2.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 20 GS. Webb has been able to increase his strikeouts (26% K) while also improving his walk rate (7% BB). The increased strikeouts have been a result of more swinging strikes (12% SwStr) to go along with 19% called strikes for a very nice 31% called strikes plus whiffs. The other great part about his profile is that the increased strikeouts pair very nicely with his elite ground ball rate (61% GB). Webb has a 3.26 SIERA which means that the changes in his profile have moved him from a streamer to a well-above-average starter that is borderline elite if the skills stick. It is all a result of him making a drastic change in his pitch mix. He has ditched his four-seamer in favor of his sinker which is arguably his best pitch and he is throwing his curve more than ever. The skills growth matched with the pitch mix makes this a very favorable profile for fantasy.
Bryce Harper was 1-5 with 1 R and 3 K's against the Nationals. Harper is now hitting .305 with 26 HR, 80 R, 63 RBI, and 12 SB. He is having an MVP caliber season and hardly anyone is talking about him. He has been more aggressive by his standards this year (21% K and 16% BB). Harper has been able to find the right balance between being too passive and punishing mistakes. His quality of contact metrics are elite (48% Hard, 16% Barrels, and 116.3 mph maxEV). He was red hot in August with a .337 AVG, 10 HR, 25 R, 25 RBI, and 0 SB. The one part of his game that has been lacking has been runs batted in but that is more or less out of his control but has seemed to correct itself over the past two months.
Brandon Nimmo was 1-4 with a run scored against the Marlins. On the year, Nimmo is hitting .297 with 5 HR, 40 R, 22 RBI, and 4 SB. This is through 75 games played. The batting average is great and he has elite OBP (.415) if you play in that format. Outside of those two categories, he is not helping much from a fantasy perspective. The power is non-existent (.116 ISO) due to 46% GB and just 3% Barrels. He can hit the ball hard (40% Hard and 111.5 mph maxEV) but it usually comes on the ground. While his profile is very valuable from a real-life experience, it doesn't produce much fantasy value.
Miguel Rojas was 2-4 with an HR (8) against the Mets. Rojas is hitting .269 AVG with 8 HR, 59 R, 36 RBI, and 12 SB. Rojas was a cheap source of batting average with regular playing time coming into the season. He hasn't quite lived up to being a plus batting average largely due to a drop in his BABIP (.300). Rojas has been able to make up for the drop in average with 12 SB which is a career-high at the major league level. There is not going to be power in his profile due to 44% GB, 32% Hard, and 2% Barrels. He is only useful in NL-only and deep mixed leagues as a MI. If you need speed and he is out there it would be wise to add him because the playing time is going to be there.
Josh Bell was 2-5 with an RBI in the loss to the Phillies. Bell is hitting .254 with 23 HR, 60 R, 73 RBI, and 0 SB. He has made important strides this year by cutting his strikeout rate from 27% in the shortened season to 19% this year. This while maintaining a 9% walk rate. His xBA (.271) gives an indication of his poor luck on batted balls this year. Bell is hitting the ball hard (51% Hard) and at the right angles (10% Barrels). The biggest problem for Bell going forward is that he continues to pound the ball into the ground with regularity (52% GB) which will limit his power despite hitting the ball hard. His 2019 season is a clear outlier (.277 AVG with 37 HR) and his 2017 season (.255 AVG with 26 HR) is more likely.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Jorge Soler ($3,900) and 3B Eugenio Suarez ($4,100)
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