2023 Fantasy Baseball Sabermetric Notes: Starting Pitchers

With the spring games getting underway, lets dig into the Sabermetric analysis that shape the player projections contained within the Fanitstics 2023 Player Projections Draft Advisory Program. These notes are a small sample of the notes available within the program, Over the last 20 years, the fantistics player projections model has correctly predicted the statistical direction of player performance on 7 out of 10 players .  Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2023 Starting Pitcher projections:

Charlie Morton 2022 was a step back from prior years for Morton, but at age 38, regression is expected. His fastball has remained relatively intact as it's only lost .4 MPH year over year. What jumped on Morton last year was his BABIP against which went from 267 to 292 last season, and part of that was the fact that he was hit harder last year (as evidenced by a 9.5 Barrels% and a 42 HardHit% against). The good news is that his ERA should have been closer to his 3.60 xFIP rather than the 4.34 ERA. 2022 BABIP: 0.292(0.025)| SwStr%: 12%(0%)| Avg FB: 94.9(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 7.7(0.1)| HR Distance: 397ft(-4)| Launch Angle: 13.6| Strand%: 0.76(0.05)| HardHit%: 42.1(9.6)| 95MPH+%: 42.1(9.6)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.2)| Elevation%: 13.6(5.8)| Barrels%: 9.5(4.6)| HR/FB%: 17%(4%)| GB Rate: 0.40(-0.08)| xFIP: 3.60(-0.74)| xSLG: 0.389(-0.022)

Shane Bieber Bieber is a prime example how you don't have to be a flame thrower to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 91.3 MPH fastball is a few ticks below the MLB average, but with 3 other plus pitches, he's learned to dominant. He has the three components that make a successful pitcher locked down: a great SwStr% (14%)/ ultra low BB/9 (1.6)/ and a heavy GB% (48%). 2022 BABIP: 0.287(-0.040)| SwStr%: 14%(-2%)| Avg FB: 91.3(-1.5)| FB/Chg Split: 4.8(-0.2)| HR Distance: 398ft(-10)| Launch Angle: 10.0| Strand%: 0.76(-0.05)| HardHit%: 43.1(-0.5)| 95MPH+%: 43.1(-0.5)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.2)| Elevation%: 10.0(0.3)| Barrels%: 7.2(-1.8)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| GB Rate: 0.48(0.04)| xFIP: 2.98(0.10)| xSLG: 0.386(0.038)

Corbin Burnes Burnes finished the year at 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and a career-high 243 strikeouts. Perhaps most surprisingly, Burnes essentially pitched a full season after dealing with injuries in previous years. While a lot of his peripherals did take a step back, as expected, other underlying numbers suggest he was just as good, if not better in 2022, hinting at a another strong season to come in 2023 if he stays healthy. - tmaher | Burnes was deservant of 15 Wins in 2022 based on his league leading 23 Quality Starts, but the Brewers were only able to muster 4.4 Runs/9 in his starts. Underlying indicators show as 2.98 xFIP which was in line with his ERA. Top 3 pitching selection in 2023 Drafts. | 2022 BABIP: 0.259(-0.050)| SwStr%: 15%(-2%)| Avg FB: 96.3(-0.6)| FB/Chg Split: 6.0(0.0)| HR Distance: 409ft(9)| Launch Angle: 10.0| Strand%: 0.77(0.01)| HardHit%: 34.1(3.6)| 95MPH+%: 34.1(3.6)| Avg Velocity: 87(1.7)| Elevation%: 10.0(1.6)| Barrels%: 5.7(2.6)| HR/FB%: 14%(8%)| GB Rate: 0.47(-0.02)| xFIP: 2.85(-0.09)| xSLG: 0.337(-0.004)

****For explanation of stats, see Glossary below****

Joe Musgrove 2022 was undoubtedly Musgrove's best season of his career, and he did it by partly relying heavily on his excellent slider but also by trusting four different pitches, each of which has a separate purpose. He depended less on strikeouts and more on limiting walks and hard contact. That resulted in a very low batting average allowed and an excellent 2.09 BB/9 rate. Musgrove figures to continue his consistent performance with the Padres in 2023. - bkamerman | That said there are some issues that could lead to a regression in 2023. Starting with his league average 11% SwStr% and above average 88% Zone contact rate. Then the was a fortunate 276 BABIP and the 3.47 xFIP. 2022 BABIP: 0.276(0.010)| SwStr%: 11%(-2%)| Avg FB: 92.9(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 6.3(0.4)| HR Distance: 398ft(2)| Launch Angle: 11.7| Strand%: 0.80(0.00)| HardHit%: 32.5(-6.0)| 95MPH+%: 32.5(-6.0)| Avg Velocity: 86(-1.6)| Elevation%: 11.7(-0.2)| Barrels%: 6.0(-1.2)| HR/FB%: 12%(-2%)| GB Rate: 0.45(0.01)| xFIP: 3.47(0.54)| xSLG: 0.351(-0.031)

Jacob deGrom A healthy degrom is the best pitcher in baseball, unfortunately we haven't seen more than 92 innings a season from deGrom since 2019 (granted one of those seasons was a shortened seasons). Last season deGrom in 64 Innings once again posted his super elite 21% SwStr%. His 12.8 K/BB rate is absurd as was his 1.53 xFIP. Yes deGrom is a risky 2nd round selection, but If you get 150 innings from DeGrom, he still could post the best numbers in the league. 2022 BABIP: 0.258(0.045)| SwStr%: 21%(-1%)| Avg FB: 98.9(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 6.9(0.0)| HR Distance: 419ft(19)| Launch Angle: 15.2| Strand%: 0.73(-0.14)| HardHit%: 31.8(-5.5)| 95MPH+%: 31.8(-5.5)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.6)| Elevation%: 15.2(1.5)| Barrels%: 9.3(2.7)| HR/FB%: 17%(8%)| GB Rate: 0.39(-0.05)| xFIP: 1.53(-1.55)| xSLG: 0.333(0.010)

Sonny Gray A pectoral and hamstring injury limited Gray's 2022 season. Along the way he posted a stellar 1.13 WHIP and 3.08 ERA. Gray isn't a dominant pitcher as his 9.2 SwStr% attests to. Rather it's good control and a heavier dose of groundballs. That said he benefitted from a fortunate 277 BABIP and 77% Strand% in 2022, so there will be some negative regression coming in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.277(-0.003)| SwStr%: 9%(-1%)| Avg FB: 92.1(-0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 4.8(-0.6)| HR Distance: 403ft(13)| Launch Angle: 12.1| Strand%: 0.77(0.05)| HardHit%: 39.8(7.7)| 95MPH+%: 39.8(7.7)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.5)| Elevation%: 12.1(3.1)| Barrels%: 5.5(0.8)| HR/FB%: 9%(-7%)| GB Rate: 0.45(-0.03)| xFIP: 3.66(0.58)| xSLG: 0.366(0.017)

Aaron Ashby Aaron Ashby 's first full season in the majors was a mixed bag, but there's still a ton to like here. The main issue Ashby has had is the fact that he's walking 10% of the batters, and that absolutely needs to change. There's a ton of good here though. He's running above average contact against skills along with a 75th percentile strikeout rate which is shown in his 118 strikeouts in 98.1 innings. The win-loss record obviously needs to improve as well in standard leagues, but in terms of evaluating him as an arm I'm not worried about it. Ashby does a solid job of avoiding hard-contact and getting whiffs, and I'll be targeting him heavily next year as we should get him at more of a discount than we did this season. - jsperry | Other than the promising ability to limit contact, we just love his 57% groundball rate, Ashby suffered because of a 20% HR/FB rate, which inflated his ERA (3.29 xFIP). 2022 BABIP: 0.324(0.051)| SwStr%: 12%(-1%)| Avg FB: 95.7(-0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 6.5(0.7)| HR Distance: 404ft(-13)| Launch Angle: 2.0| Strand%: 0.70(0.15)| HardHit%: 34.1(-1.7)| 95MPH+%: 34.1(-1.7)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.2)| Elevation%: 2.0(2.0)| Barrels%: 6.8(1.9)| HR/FB%: 20%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.57(-0.04)| xFIP: 3.29(-1.15)| xSLG: 0.358(-0.044)


Adrian Sampson Sampson finished with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The surface numbers look solid but diving deeper raises some red flags. His4.39 xFIP paints the picture of a pitcher that is a streamer in deeper mixed leagues not a back-end start like his ERA. Sampson struggles to miss bats (19% K) and his 9% SwStr and 24% CSW don't suggest that more are coming. He also does not have an elite ground ball rate (40% GB) which is one way to overcome the lack of strikeouts. He has 250+ IP at the major league level in his career with a 1.86 HR/9 and this year it is 0.76 HR/9 thanks to a 7.7% HR/FB. Sampson is going to see regression in terms of home runs which is going to drive his ratios north. - pdouble 2022 BABIP: 0.288(0.056)| SwStr%: 9%(0%)| Avg FB: 92.2(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 7.1(0.0)| HR Distance: 399ft(-10)| Launch Angle: 13.6| Strand%: 0.78(-0.11)| HardHit%: 35.9(-6.8)| 95MPH+%: 35.9(-6.8)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.2)| Elevation%: 13.6(-0.6)| Barrels%: 6.7(-5.0)| HR/FB%: 8%(-13%)| GB Rate: 0.40(-0.04)| xFIP: 4.39(1.28)| xSLG: 0.422(0.054)

Tyler Anderson Anderson has improved as a pitcher since leaving Coors Field. As a flyball pitcher you would expect such. Anderson is not a power pitcher (90.5 MPH fastball), but the effective usage of both his curveball and Cutter, do enough to keep hitters off stride, inducing weaker than typical contact as evidenced by his below average Hard Hit rates. That said his 256 BABIP is likely to regress, however it's not grossly underrepresented as Anderson induced weak contact all season as evidenced by his 85 average velo on balls in play and 29% HardHit% allowed. His SwStr% is above league average (11.7) and he his Walk % is elite(1.7). That said the 2.57 ERA is likely not repeatable as his HR/FB rate of only 6% is likely to regress. While his xFIP shows that his performance should have yielded a 4.42 ERA, xFIP does not take into account the pitchers ability to control weak contact. 2022 BABIP: 0.256(-0.028)| SwStr%: 12%(0%)| Avg FB: 90.5(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 11.4(-0.4)| HR Distance: 398ft(2)| Launch Angle: 16.9| Strand%: 0.78(0.07)| HardHit%: 28.5(-4.5)| 95MPH+%: 28.5(-4.5)| Avg Velocity: 85(-2.0)| Elevation%: 16.9(-1.3)| Barrels%: 4.9(-3.6)| HR/FB%: 6%(-6%)| GB Rate: 0.40(0.05)| xFIP: 4.10(1.53)| xSLG: 0.350(-0.001)

Anthony DeSclafani Anthony DeSclafani underwent season-ending surgery on his troublesome right ankle on July 12, is expected to be fully healthy to start the 2023 campaign. Anthony finished 2021 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 31 GS. Showing an improvement in skills (23% K and 7% BB) thanks in large part to a change in his pitch mix. He is throwing his fastball less and his slider/changeup more. This has been part of the Giants strategy is to throw your best pitches more. DeSclafani has improved his skills but a lot of his success can be traced back to good fortune (3.95 xFIP). Everything has gone right for DeSclafani this year. Starting with his elevated 78% Strand Rate and 265 BABIP against. - pdouble 2022 BABIP: 0.441(0.123)| SwStr%: 9%(0%)| Avg FB: 92.4(-2.5)| FB/Chg Split: 6.2(0.3)| HR Distance: 398ft(-6)| Launch Angle: 14.0| Strand%: 0.54(-0.12)| HardHit%: 45.8(-0.7)| 95MPH+%: 45.8(-0.7)| Avg Velocity: 92(2.0)| Elevation%: 14.0(3.0)| Barrels%: 6.9(-4.5)| HR/FB%: 15%(-3%)| GB Rate: 0.44(0.05)| xFIP: 4.14(-2.49)| xSLG: 0.479(-0.180)

Zack Greinke As we said in last year's projection notes: One cannot help but wonder if Father Time is catching up to Greinke. Well it certainly looked that way in 2022, as Greinke had a pretty unrecognizable season. Suddenly his changeup and slider have become very hittable as evidenced by his 40% HardHit% against. 2022 BABIP: 0.306(0.043)| SwStr%: 7%(-2%)| Avg FB: 89.2(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 2.7(-0.3)| HR Distance: 393ft(-5)| Launch Angle: 12.6| Strand%: 0.73(-0.02)| HardHit%: 39.6(4.2)| 95MPH+%: 39.6(4.2)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.6)| Elevation%: 12.6(2.0)| Barrels%: 6.8(0.3)| HR/FB%: 8%(-9%)| GB Rate: 0.41(-0.03)| xFIP: 4.54(0.86)| xSLG: 0.441(0.024)

Chris Bassitt Bassitt finished the 2022 with a sensational 15-8 record along with a 3.42 ERA/1.14 WHIP. The 33-year-old has established personal bests in nearly every category and has shown no signs of slowing down, as his fastball hasn't lost any zip. Bassit transformed somewhat in 2022, when he became more of a groundball pitcher (rate went from 42% to 49% last season). When you combine that with good control, you have the makings of a pitcher who doesn't have to be overpowering to be successful. Just don't expect the 15 Wins from last season. 2022 BABIP: 0.282(0.011)| SwStr%: 10%(0%)| Avg FB: 92.9(-0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 7.6(-1.2)| HR Distance: 393ft(-7)| Launch Angle: 10.8| Strand%: 0.77(-0.01)| HardHit%: 32.8(-0.4)| 95MPH+%: 32.8(-0.4)| Avg Velocity: 86(-1.9)| Elevation%: 10.8(-1.7)| Barrels%: 6.6(0.1)| HR/FB%: 11%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.49(0.07)| xFIP: 3.72(0.30)| xSLG: 0.359(0.001)

Kyle Bradish Bradish finished with a much better xFIP (4.01) than actual ERA (4.90). Some of that had to do with a 311 BABIP against and an elevated 15% HR/FB rate. He's interesting to watch as he has shown q solid SwStr%, BB/9, and heavier GB rates in the minors. Worth a very late round flyer. 2022 BABIP: 0.311(0.311)| SwStr%: 10%(10%)| Avg FB: 94.7(94.7)| FB/Chg Split: 4.8(0.7)| HR Distance: 399ft(399)| Launch Angle: 8.7| Strand%: 0.70(0.70)| HardHit%: 41.0(41.0)| 95MPH+%: 41.0(41.0)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.9)| Elevation%: 8.7(8.7)| Barrels%: 7.8(7.8)| HR/FB%: 15%(15%)| GB Rate: 0.46(0.46)| xFIP: 4.01(-0.89)| xSLG: 0.404(-0.014)

Sean Manaea By most accounts, Sean had a disappointing season in 2022 finishing the season with a 4.96 era and 1.30 WHIP and 158 innings. He struck out 156 batters and finished with 8 wins in 28 starts. Although he lost about 1 MPH on his fastball, he still maintained a solid 12% swinging strike rate. What wasn't the same was his control, which in recent seasons has ranged between 1.3-1.9 BB/9... in 2022 that ballooned to 2.9. The other difference was his Strand % which was a stellar but an unsustainable 77% in 2021 and regressed to 68% in 2022. You could probably chalk a lot of that up to bad luck in critical situations as he does have the stuff to maintain a 75 to 76% Strand%. xFIP shows his ERA was a full run more than his ERA. We expect that we'll see better numbers from Sean in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.291(-0.027)| SwStr%: 12%(0%)| Avg FB: 91.2(-1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 6.4(0.6)| HR Distance: 396ft(-13)| Launch Angle: 16.3| Strand%: 0.68(-0.10)| HardHit%: 42.9(1.9)| 95MPH+%: 42.9(1.9)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.1)| Elevation%: 16.3(3.0)| Barrels%: 9.1(1.1)| HR/FB%: 15%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.38(-0.04)| xFIP: 3.96(-1.00)| xSLG: 0.407(-0.046)

Cal Quantrill Cal Quantrill finished 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA in a career-high 186 innings. Quantrill pitches to contact, so he won't get you gaudy strikeout numbers (6.2 K/9), but he consistently goes deep into games (5.85 Innings per Start). Expect much of the same next season. - dnachtigal | Of concern with Quantrill was an xFIP (4.39) which was considerably higher than his ERA, and his HR/FB rate of only 9.1% are likely to regress. 2022 BABIP: 0.278(0.011)| SwStr%: 8%(-1%)| Avg FB: 93.6(-0.7)| FB/Chg Split: 8.2(-0.2)| HR Distance: 396ft(-2)| Launch Angle: 13.8| Strand%: 0.76(-0.04)| HardHit%: 35.7(1.5)| 95MPH+%: 35.7(1.5)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.0)| Elevation%: 13.8(1.4)| Barrels%: 7.5(0.7)| HR/FB%: 10%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.42(-0.01)| xFIP: 4.39(1.01)| xSLG: 0.417(0.034)

Carlos Carrasco Carlos was on his way to a stellar 2022 season before it was cut short due to injury. In the 152 innings pitched Carlos recorded 152 strikeouts a 1.33 WHIP and 3.97 ERA this to go along with this fifteen wins. Underneath the hood we see that Carlos posted a 13% swinging strike rate which is down from previous highs of up to 15% while playing for the Indians. His fastball hasn't lost much velocity, his 93 mile per hour average is about half a mile less than his norm and his changeup and slider continue to be plus pitches for him. A closer look at his ERA we see that his XFIP is closer to 3.45 or 1/2 of a run less than his actual ERA. All in all if Carlos stays healthy he should continue to produce, but don't pay for his 15 Wins from a season ago as his team is unlikely to record the 6 Runs per game support for him in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.337(0.038)| SwStr%: 13%(1%)| Avg FB: 92.9(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 5.5(0.0)| HR Distance: 399ft(-9)| Launch Angle: 9.7| Strand%: 0.75(0.12)| HardHit%: 39.5(1.0)| 95MPH+%: 39.5(1.0)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.7)| Elevation%: 9.7(-0.9)| Barrels%: 7.0(-1.3)| HR/FB%: 12%(-8%)| GB Rate: 0.46(0.04)| xFIP: 3.45(-0.52)| xSLG: 0.405(-0.002)

Dylan Cease Cease finished 2022 with a stellar 2.20 ERA |1.10 WHIP| 14W|227 ks. His ERA is even more impressive in light of his MLB-high 74 walks, which makes his ERA appear fluky. He's helped his cause with plenty of strikeouts (11.2 K/9) as well as the lowest home run rate of his career (0.7 HR/9), which has helped minimize the damage from those free passes. While he's likely to regress a bit next year if his .261 BABIP, 81.6% strand rate, and 7.9 HR/FB% all normalize, Cease is still one of the best pitchers in the American League. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.260(-0.049)| SwStr%: 15%(0%)| Avg FB: 96.8(0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 19.0(2.0)| HR Distance: 396ft(9)| Launch Angle: 15.0| Strand%: 0.82(0.08)| HardHit%: 31.2(-7.6)| 95MPH+%: 31.2(-7.6)| Avg Velocity: 87(-2.4)| Elevation%: 15.0(-3.5)| Barrels%: 6.2(-3.7)| HR/FB%: 8%(-3%)| GB Rate: 0.39(0.06)| xFIP: 3.50(1.30)| xSLG: 0.292(-0.014)

Mike Clevinger Clevinger finished 2022 with a 4.33 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 through 22 starts in a season abbreviated by knee and triceps issues. While he hasn't been the dominant starter that he was in 2019 with Cleveland (2.71 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.09 xFIP), Clevinger was, after all, coming off TJS in addition to dealing with other injury issues. A 4.76 xFIP does indicate that he's benefitted from some good luck (a .249 BABIP is the most obvious factor) while it's worth noting that his average fastball velocity (unsurprisingly) is down a tick or so to under 94mph from the 95+ it was in 2019-2020. At any rate, he has shown glimpses of the Clevinger of old and 2023 will be the real litmus test for him as he is (hopefully) healthy to start the season and gets another year away from TJS. - ahodge 2022 BABIP: 0.249(-0.026)| SwStr%: 11%(-2%)| Avg FB: 93.5(-1.7)| FB/Chg Split: 7.3(-0.3)| HR Distance: 401ft(-15)| Launch Angle: 18.8| Strand%: 0.77(-0.09)| HardHit%: 39.1(4.5)| 95MPH+%: 39.1(4.5)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.0)| Elevation%: 18.8(1.1)| Barrels%: 9.5(2.0)| HR/FB%: 13%(-2%)| GB Rate: 0.35(0.01)| xFIP: 4.76(0.43)| xSLG: 0.435(0.023)

Alex Cobb Cobb was fantastic, buoyed by a 2 mph increase in fastball velocity and a 62% GB rate. The home park helps as does the resurgence in control....he's really been the complete package this season. Cobb turns 35 right at the end of the2022 season, but with another year on his contract in SF I'm absolutely going to be interested once again in 2023. Cobb is 7th in xFIP (2.89) ERA among pitchers with at least 120 IP, and in 28 starts he's allowed more than 3 ER just twice: in Colorado and in LA against the Dodgers. He remains a very solid mid-rotation starter in my book as a top-40 SP. - sdombroske 2022 BABIP: 0.336(0.021)| SwStr%: 10%(-1%)| Avg FB: 94.8(2.0)| FB/Chg Split: 5.1(-0.2)| HR Distance: 394ft(-17)| Launch Angle: 1.8| Strand%: 0.68(0.02)| HardHit%: 41.1(3.6)| 95MPH+%: 41.1(3.6)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.3)| Elevation%: 1.8(-1.2)| Barrels%: 3.7(-0.5)| HR/FB%: 10%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.62(0.08)| xFIP: 2.89(-0.84)| xSLG: 0.329(-0.008)

Gerrit Cole Cole's season numbers didn't look as good as they should have in 2022. His 3.50 ERA was bloated, as his xFIP shows a 2.77. His elite fastball of 97.8 was higher than it's ever been and his 70% contact rate remains one of the best in the league. His 14.3% K rate and 11.5 K/9 also remain elite. We don't see any reason to believe that the 32 year old is down slopping, yet his ADP has dropped a round since last year's draft. 2022 BABIP: 0.268(-0.037)| SwStr%: 14%(0%)| Avg FB: 97.8(0.1)| FB/Chg Split: 8.0(-0.2)| HR Distance: 398ft(-1)| Launch Angle: 12.6| Strand%: 0.78(0.00)| HardHit%: 40.2(1.6)| 95MPH+%: 40.2(1.6)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.7)| Elevation%: 12.6(0.1)| Barrels%: 9.5(-0.3)| HR/FB%: 17%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.42(-0.01)| xFIP: 2.77(-0.73)| xSLG: 0.383(0.010)

Kyle Freeland Consistent low 1.40 WHIP and 4.30ish ERA with little strikeout upside over his last 3 years...Colorado...pass. 2022 BABIP: 0.318(-0.007)| SwStr%: 9%(1%)| Avg FB: 90.0(-1.4)| FB/Chg Split: 5.2(-0.2)| HR Distance: 412ft(3)| Launch Angle: 12.7| Strand%: 0.71(-0.08)| HardHit%: 42.4(7.1)| 95MPH+%: 42.4(7.1)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.4)| Elevation%: 12.7(1.3)| Barrels%: 9.7(1.5)| HR/FB%: 10%(-7%)| GB Rate: 0.42(-0.03)| xFIP: 4.48(-0.05)| xSLG: 0.455(0.000)

Patrick Corbin Corbin was adversely affected by a 365 BABIP, but a lot of that was deserved based on the 45% HardHit% allowed. In critical situations he also didn't possess the pitches to keep his ERA in check as evidenced by his 64% LOB%. 2022 BABIP: 0.365(0.060)| SwStr%: 9%(-2%)| Avg FB: 92.7(0.2)| FB/Chg Split: 10.2(0.1)| HR Distance: 406ft(7)| Launch Angle: 11.5| Strand%: 0.64(-0.05)| HardHit%: 45.0(3.8)| 95MPH+%: 45.0(3.8)| Avg Velocity: 91(1.4)| Elevation%: 11.5(2.5)| Barrels%: 11.0(1.8)| HR/FB%: 16%(-7%)| GB Rate: 0.44(-0.03)| xFIP: 4.21(-2.10)| xSLG: 0.520(0.007)

Nestor Cortes Cortes finished his regular season in dominant fashion, he had a tremendous second half of the season, posting a 2.07 ERA over his final 12 starts, and allowing 3 ER's or fewer in each of those starts. Cortes is likely to see some regression next season as his 3.64 xFIP is more than a run higher than his actual ERA of 2.44. He allowed a dangerously high 47.8% FB% this season but escaped with just an 8.2% HR/FB. He also presumably got lucky with his .232 BABIP. He should remain a solid fantasy option in 2023, but it's probably a bit too optimistic to expect ace-like numbers once again. - mgreenfeld 2022 BABIP: 0.232(-0.033)| SwStr%: 11%(1%)| Avg FB: 91.8(1.1)| FB/Chg Split: 8.8(-0.4)| HR Distance: 389ft(-7)| Launch Angle: 19.2| Strand%: 0.83(-0.02)| HardHit%: 34.7(-1.4)| 95MPH+%: 34.7(-1.4)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.1)| Elevation%: 19.2(-4.5)| Barrels%: 5.3(-2.1)| HR/FB%: 8%(-3%)| GB Rate: 0.34(0.06)| xFIP: 3.63(1.19)| xSLG: 0.320(0.007)

Daniel Lynch Daniel Lynch finished 2022 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. The base skills 8.3 K/9and 3.6% BB/9 are not great. His swinging-strike rate (11.3%) suggests that more strikeouts are coming. He is throwing his fastball less in favor of more sliders and changeups which should also help increase the strikeouts. The hope is that he can improve his control as he gets more used to his new pitch mix. However, as fantasy managers, it is hard for us to wait for that to happen so keeping him on your watchlist and monitoring his control by start is the way to go. Once we see his walk rate improve, success in terms of ratios will come. - pdouble 2022 BABIP: 0.335(0.000)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 94.0(0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 9.1(0.1)| HR Distance: 405ft(-18)| Launch Angle: 12.8| Strand%: 0.73(0.05)| HardHit%: 47.7(3.4)| 95MPH+%: 47.7(3.4)| Avg Velocity: 91(0.5)| Elevation%: 12.8(-1.7)| Barrels%: 8.8(-1.6)| HR/FB%: 14%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.42(0.03)| xFIP: 4.30(-0.83)| xSLG: 0.450(0.018)

Yu Darvish Darvish finished 2022 with a 3.10/3.58 ERA/xFIP to go along with a career-low 9.11 K/9 and career-best 1.72 BB/9. The 36-year-old hasn't been a true ace since he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 but has made strides in his second season in San Diego. Darvish has been way more effective in the pitcher's ballpark of Petco Park. This season, he owns a 2.45 ERA and a .177 opponent average at Petco, while he has a 3.53 ERA and a .221 opponent average outside of San Diego. - dnachtigal | Of concern is the 250 BABIP which is well below career norms as well as his 9.6% HR/FB rate....this despite a robust 37 HardHit%. There will be regression ahead in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.250(-0.024)| SwStr%: 11%(-1%)| Avg FB: 95.0(0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 7.6(0.6)| HR Distance: 401ft(4)| Launch Angle: 17.0| Strand%: 0.78(0.06)| HardHit%: 37.1(2.2)| 95MPH+%: 37.1(2.2)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.3)| Elevation%: 17.0(0.4)| Barrels%: 8.8(0.0)| HR/FB%: 10%(-5%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.00)| xFIP: 3.58(0.48)| xSLG: 0.388(0.057)

Explanation of Stats:

BABIP: Batted Balls Hit in Play - League Average near .300. On average pitchers have little control over this, however superior pitchers do have control in allowing weaker contact, while the opposite is true for poor pitchers. In parenthesis is the change over 2022.

SwStr%: Swinging Strike Rate measures Swings and Misses divided Total Pitches. League average is around 11%. Elite Pitchers are in the 12-14% range.

Avg FB: Average Fastball Speed. A few decades ago anything over 90 was considered excellent. Today that average is 93.3 - Elite average fastball speeds are now above 96MPH.

FB/Chg Split: Delta between Fastball and Changeup. League average is close to 8 MPH. Any split above 9 is considered Excellent. Any split above 10 is considered the "Holy Grail". Although there are several ways to compete, deception is the key to pitching success.

HR Distance: This represents the average Homerun distance of all the homeruns allowed by this pitcher. Although this statistic varies in effectiveness. Poor pitchers tend to get hit harder, and thus exhibit greater distance on HRs allowed. Yet pitchers with greater velocity on their fastball, also tend to give up longer homeruns, but in some cases, are still very effective pitchers. In other words don't overplay this indicator. League Average HR distance is 399ft.

Strand%: Measures the number of baserunners left stranded, as opposed to those baserunners that they allowed to score. Better pitchers have a higher strand%, and this will show up in their ERA. It's not a surprise that other indicators such as SwStr% and K/9 have a high correlation to Strand%. League average is .75.

HardHit%: measures the percentage of batted balls that are hit "hard". Hard hit rate was first developed by Sports Info Solutions (formerly Baseball Info Solutions) and data dating back to 2002 is publicly available. When it was first developed, analysts from Sports Info Solutions manually categorized every batted ball as being "soft" hit, "medium" hit and "hard" hit, however, the method of recording the statistic became much less subjective in 2010. While the exact formula has not been released, the current method of tracking "hard" hit rate involves an algorithm accounting for batted ball's air time, trajectory, landing spot, etc. The average HARDHIT% is currently 38%

Avg Velocity: A Statcast metric that measures Exit Velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. This is tracked for all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors. Average Velocity off the bat is 88.6 MPH.

Elevation%: A Statcast metric that measures the elevation of the ball coming off the bat. Groundball pitchers will have a lower metric. Average Elevation angle is 12.6.

Barrels%: A Statcast classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Average Barrels% is 7.4.

HR/FB%: Homeruns divided by Flyballs, how many flyballs pitched that flew out of the ballpark. League average is 11.3%. Some pitchers have some control/loss of control over this statistic, but generally it's out of a pitcher's governance.

GB Rate: Groundball Rate measures the percentage of groundballs allowed by the pitcher. League average is 43%.

xFIP: A different way to measure a pitchers "true ERA", through the Fielder Independent Pitching formula. xFIP subs in a league average HR rate, with the assumption that variations to HR/FB are uncontrollable. ((Fly balls / league average rate of HR per fly ball x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) - (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant.

xSLG: A Statcast metric that measures a pitchers expected slugging percentage.