2023 Fantasy Baseball Sabermetric Notes: Shortstops

Anthony A. Perri

Mar 14, 2023

In our continuing series on the Sabermetric analysis that shapes our Player projections in our 2023 Player Projections Software. Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2023 Shortstop projections:

Wander Franco Franco a top prospect was the number 1 hitting prospect in baseball coming into the league in 2021. After popping seven home runs in 281 at-bats as a rookie, Franco actually saw a decrease to his HR/PA in 2022,finishing with six homers in 314 at-bats. He makes excellent contact and rarely strikes out, but the young infielder hasn't shown the promised goods. At least not in 650ish PAs. That said we are talking about a wrist injury in 2022, which likely sapped a good portion of his power, even after returning. That said I wouldn't expect more than high teens in HRs in 2023. I think we'll see a ton of production otherwise in the form of gap hits, and the 89% contact rate gives us good optimism that he going to be a run producer in 2023. Not known as a big stolen base prospect, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't attempt more in 2023 after going 8-8 in 2022. 2022 BABIP: 0.290(-0.021)| Contact Rate: 88%(3%)| xBA: 0.285(0.008)| xSLG: 0.408(-0.009)| HR Distance: 385ft(-2)| HR Max BBS: 112.4()| HardHit%: 35.8%(-1.8%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.9)| Elevation%: 8.2(-1.5)| Barrels%: 4.6%(-0.3%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.1)| EYE: 0.79(0.14)| ISO: 14.0%(-3.5%)

Bo Bichette In 2022 Bo Bichette posted 24 home runs 93 RBI's, 91 run scored, 13 stolen bases, and a 290 batting average. All in all it was a pretty solid fantasy season but a disappointment coming off of his 2021 season. That said the 24 year old's underlying skill set actually improved in 2022 even though it didn't show in the typical stat categories. His 50% hard hit percentage and 92 velocity are elite. His contact rate of 80% remains above average, so it's easy to expect that his 2023 season is gonna look better than it did last season. 2022 BABIP: 0.347(0.008)| Contact Rate: 80%(0%)| xBA: 0.278(-0.012)| xSLG: 0.444(-0.025)| HR Distance: 388ft(-13)| HR Max BBS: 112.4()| HardHit%: 50.3%(2.8%)| Avg Velocity: 92(0.5)| Elevation%: 8.5(1.2)| Barrels%: 9.6%(-0.3%)| HR/FB%: 16%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.26(-0.03)| ISO: 17.9%(-0.7%)

Bobby Witt Jr. The former number one minor league prospect Bobby Witt had an outstanding fantasy season 2022 when he hit twenty home runs, drove in eighty RBI's, scored 82 runs, stole 30 bases and 37 attempts, and hit 254. That was a legitimate top five fantasy season among shortstops, in only his first MLB season. Obviously we're just scratching the surface when we're talking about a 22 year old athlete. the only downside in this game was his paltry 4.7% walk which hurts his value in OBP leagues. 2022 BABIP: 0.295(0.295)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| xBA: 0.252(-0.002)| xSLG: 0.427(-0.001)| HR Distance: 416ft(416)| HR Max BBS: 113.7()| HardHit%: 38.6%(38.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.7)| Elevation%: 16.8(16.8)| Barrels%: 8.7%(8.7%)| HR/FB%: 9%(9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.8)| EYE: 0.22(-0.08)| ISO: 17.4%(17.4%)

Willy Adames Adamas put together a MVP type season in 2022 with 31 home runs, 98 RBI, 83 run scored, eight stolen bases and a 238 batting average. The batting average of only 238 was disappointing, but a closer look indicates that he was on the unlucky side thanks to a 278 BABIP which does not correlate with his advanced batted ball skills including a 43.6% hard hit percentage and 88.9% average below on balls hit and play. His 13% barrels percentage borders elite. That said he probably overreached on the RBI count of 98 last year which will regress if he stays in the two slot in the batting order. Lots to like here at only 27 years old. 2022 BABIP: 0.278(-0.053)| Contact Rate: 74%(5%)| xBA: 0.238(0.000)| xSLG: 0.451(-0.007)| HR Distance: 401ft(4)| HR Max BBS: 110.6()| HardHit%: 43.6%(-1.1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.6)| Elevation%: 18.9(2.1)| Barrels%: 13.0%(1.6%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.2)| EYE: 0.30(-0.07)| ISO: 22.0%(0.1%)

Elvis Andrus Andrus was able to post an increase his power numbers in 2022 thanks to an upward shift in his flyball rates and elevation. At 34, the 11% HR/FB rate on below average HardHIt rates and average velo is likely to cause a reduction in HRs in 2023, which will diminish the uptick we saw in 2022. BABIP: 0.272(-0.011)| Contact Rate: 81%(-1%)| xBA: 0.245(-0.004)| xSLG: 0.360(-0.044)| HR Distance: 394ft(-7)| HR Max BBS: 109.9()| HardHit%: 34.8%(0.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.1)| Elevation%: 11.9(3.8)| Barrels%: 4.5%(2.4%)| HR/FB%: 11%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.3)| EYE: 0.42(0.04)| ISO: 15.5%(7.8%)

Brandon Crawford As expected Crawford's 2021 campaign when he hit 24 HRs with a 15% HR/FB rate was not sustainable. Last year he only posted 9 HRs, as his HR/FB rate drifted to only 8% and his HardHit% dropped from 43% to only 35%. The production should increase in 2023, however at 35 YO, he's not a breakout candidate. 2022 BABIP: 0.280(-0.054)| Contact Rate: 70%(-2%)| xBA: 0.217(-0.014)| xSLG: 0.339(-0.005)| HR Distance: 392ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 109.0()| HardHit%: 35.1%(-8.2%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.7)| Elevation%: 12.3(-2.4)| Barrels%: 6.7%(-4.8%)| HR/FB%: 8%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.4)| EYE: 0.40(-0.13)| ISO: 11.3%(-11.1%)

Javier Baez Baez finished 2022 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs. The 29-year-old shortstop had an underwhelming first season in Detroit. He has posted a career-low .294 wOBA and 91 wRC+ (excluding COVID 2020 season) and owns a career-worst and league-high, 47.9% O-Swing%. Baez has always been a free-swinging, streaky hitter, but he seems to have hit rock bottom in 2022. There is little hope for fantasy relevance unless he can reign in his aggression some...well he will probably need to reign it in more than some to be productive again. - dnachtigal 2022 BABIP: 0.292(-0.060)| Contact Rate: 66%(4%)| xBA: 0.230(-0.008)| xSLG: 0.378(-0.015)| HR Distance: 393ft(-10)| HR Max BBS: 112.1()| HardHit%: 38.0%(-7.2%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-2.2)| Elevation%: 9.6(-1.0)| Barrels%: 8.0%(-5.4%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-16%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(0.1)| EYE: 0.18(0.03)| ISO: 15.5%(-7.4%)

Xander Bogaerts Contact rate took a hit but BA went up. That said his 307BA from a year ago is not sustainable based on the elevated 363 BABIP, xBA shows .259. The areas that I am optimistic about are his HR count, as the 15 from a season ago seem to be mooted based on his 11% HR/FB rate with underlying indicators showing the count should have been closer to 22. On top of that his RBI count of 73 should have been closer to 83. . 2022 BABIP: 0.362(0.029)| Contact Rate: 77%(-3%)| xBA: 0.259(-0.048)| xSLG: 0.383(-0.073)| HR Distance: 390ft(-12)| HR Max BBS: 113.0()| HardHit%: 39.5%(-3.5%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.5)| Elevation%: 10.2(-2.3)| Barrels%: 6.5%(-3.2%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(0.4)| EYE: 0.48(-0.07)| ISO: 14.9%(-4.9%)

Carlos Correa Correa finished September with a .345 average, seven homers, and 18 RBIs. The strong finish is salvaged a somewhat disappointing fantasy campaign for Correa, whose power stroke often disappeared for long stretches. Going from Houston to a less hitting-friendly park and worse support cast in Minnesota didn't help, either, which partly explains why he has 34 fewer runs and 29 fewer RBIs despite playing only 16 fewer games. While he's been a good player throughout his career, he never quite developed into the offensive monster he was expected to be after his impressive rookie campaign. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.339(0.031)| Contact Rate: 80%(-1%)| xBA: 0.276(-0.015)| xSLG: 0.484(0.017)| HR Distance: 408ft(23)| HR Max BBS: 114.6()| HardHit%: 44.7%(2.0%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-0.3)| Elevation%: 11.6(-0.5)| Barrels%: 11.4%(2.0%)| HR/FB%: 15%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(-0.1)| EYE: 0.50(-0.15)| ISO: 17.6%(-3.0%)

J.P. Crawford Crawford had an unspectacular 2022 season, posting only six home runs drove in 42 and scored 57 runs on a 243 batting average. A lot of that was due to a very poor second-half in which he only had one home run and 21 RBIs and 250 at bats. Crawford's batting average should have some considerable upside in 2023 as is 243 batting average will be mitigated by his 87% contact rate...granted he doesn't hit the ball hard as evidenced by his 30% hard hit rate. 2022 BABIP: 0.275(-0.045)| Contact Rate: 87%(1%)| xBA: 0.255(0.012)| xSLG: 0.337(0.001)| HR Distance: 396ft(13)| HR Max BBS: 109.3()| HardHit%: 29.7%(-0.9%)| Avg Velocity: 85(-1.2)| Elevation%: 8.9(-0.9)| Barrels%: 2.0%(-0.4%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.0)| EYE: 0.85(0.34)| ISO: 9.3%(-1.0%)

David Fletcher Fletcher is the ultimate slap hitter as evidenced by his 7% hard hit percentage and 82 mile an hour average Velo on balls hit and play, these are absurdly poor quality of contact rates. What keeps Fletcher in the major leagues is his 89% contact rate, however for fantasy purposes there just hasn't been enough stolen bases in his game to make him rosterable. 2022 BABIP: 0.268(-0.019)| Contact Rate: 89%(-3%)| xBA: 0.285(0.030)| xSLG: 0.344(0.011)| HR Distance: 363ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 99.0()| HardHit%: 7.4%(-8.3%)| Avg Velocity: 82(-0.2)| Elevation%: 15.0(6.6)| Barrels%: 0.0%(0.0%)| HR/FB%: 3%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.9)| EYE: 0.44(-0.08)| ISO: 7.8%(1.6%)

Ha-seong Kim Kim is a sneaky play because he offers upside to the 7% Homer flyball ratio that we saw last year. Granted his hard hit rates are below league average however as a flyball hitter he has plenty of opportunities to expand on the 11 HRs from a season ago. What we like about Kim is his low strikeout rate of only 17% and 83% contact rate. He had also take a walk as evidenced by his 9% Walk Rate. The other wrinkle in this game is his sneaky base running skills, last year he stole 12 bases in 14 attempts. He's not a star by any means but in a deeper league he can be a solid addition at a relatively inexpensive price. 2022 BABIP: 0.290(0.049)| Contact Rate: 83%(3%)| xBA: 0.250(-0.001)| xSLG: 0.368(-0.015)| HR Distance: 398ft(8)| HR Max BBS: 109.4()| HardHit%: 32.4%(0.6%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.0)| Elevation%: 16.1(2.5)| Barrels%: 4.2%(-0.3%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.51(0.20)| ISO: 13.2%(-1.8%)

Francisco Lindor Lindor bounced back up to 26 HRs in 2022 and a career-high 107 RBIs. Finishing with a 26/16 season with 98R and 107 RBI is obviously incredibly productive, but I still can't help but be a tiny bit disappointed. The contact numbers have definitely remained down from his time in Cleveland, and although the EV and hard hit rates are fairly similar, the ISOs are much lower as well. He's been the 3rd best SS offensively this season, so you're getting what you paid for really, but I still feel like he could get back to the 30 HR level one of the next few seasons. - sdombroske 2022 BABIP: 0.301(0.053)| Contact Rate: 79%(1%)| xBA: 0.254(-0.016)| xSLG: 0.427(-0.022)| HR Distance: 394ft(-1)| HR Max BBS: 110.7()| HardHit%: 41.3%(-2.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.4)| Elevation%: 13.8(-0.6)| Barrels%: 8.3%(0.1%)| HR/FB%: 13%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.2)| EYE: 0.44(-0.16)| ISO: 17.9%(-0.3%)

Jorge Mateo Mateo has entered the fantasy conversation strictly thanks to his stolen base prowess. Last year Matteo stole 35 bases and 44 attempts. he was able to maintain regular plate appearances thanks to somewhat steady production. His 33% hard hit percentage and 87 mph average velo, could be enough to sustain him in the lineup however the 27% strikeout rate and only 5% walk percentage are a recipe for disaster. So although we love the prospect have a + 30 stolen base guy, we have to be cognizant that if he doesn't improve the contact rate he will be nothing more than a pinch runner fill in type player. 2022 BABIP: 0.286(-0.038)| Contact Rate: 71%(-2%)| xBA: 0.222(0.001)| xSLG: 0.344(-0.035)| HR Distance: 393ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 32.7%(1.5%)| Avg Velocity: 87(1.4)| Elevation%: 14.8(0.7)| Barrels%: 6.0%(0.3%)| HR/FB%: 9%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.1)| EYE: 0.18(0.02)| ISO: 15.8%(2.9%)

Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner (SS-CHC) put together an all-round productive campaign in which he's hit .281 with 10 homers, 55 RBI, 60 runs scored, and 20 steals (2 caught) across 517 plate appearances, good for an above-average wRC+ of 110. He does not make a lot of hard contact (33% hard-hit rate per Statcast), but rather uses his above-average speed to capitalize on a productive combination of a 21% liner rate and 46% groundball rate, which leaves a 33% flyball rate that allows him to put a few over the fence. With an 87% contact rate and plus speed with a penchant for swiping some bags, Hoerner offers some fantasy value, especially given the relatively low steals totals in today's game. - ahodge 2022 BABIP: 0.300(-0.060)| Contact Rate: 87%(4%)| xBA: 0.270(-0.011)| xSLG: 0.366(-0.044)| HR Distance: 381ft(381)| HR Max BBS: 109.7()| HardHit%: 33.5%(-0.9%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.2)| Elevation%: 10.7(3.0)| Barrels%: 2.6%(1.0%)| HR/FB%: 7%(7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.3)| EYE: 0.49(-0.19)| ISO: 12.9%(6.2%)

Corey Seager Seager continues to display unprecedented power, extending his personal home run record with his 33 HRs in 2022. The power surge is supported by top-notch quality of contact. Meanwhile, his career-low .245 batting average was NOT supported by his approach. Instead, an inexplicable .242 BABIP is damaging his surface stats. Although he swings and misses a lot, his strikeout rate is always manageable. Perhaps most encouraging in his first season with the Rangers is his health. Seager has eclipsed 550 at-bats fort only the second time in his career, first since his rookie season in 2016. He is in the midst of what should be an MVP-caliber season but bad luck and a bad team has masked his skills. He is a thrilling target for the 2023 draft season. - bkamerman 2022 BABIP: 0.242(-0.094)| Contact Rate: 75%(1%)| xBA: 0.283(0.038)| xSLG: 0.510(0.055)| HR Distance: 404ft(0)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 45.5%(-3.8%)| Avg Velocity: 91(0.1)| Elevation%: 13.6(2.9)| Barrels%: 10.5%(-1.9%)| HR/FB%: 17%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.3)| EYE: 0.56(-0.17)| ISO: 21.0%(-0.5%)

Dansby Swanson Swanson has transformed himself into a run producer. His 95MPH+ rate has steadily increased over the last few years and is now at 46%. There is upside to the 14% HR/FB rate from a season ago, and 17% is within his reach. That said the 277 BA from a season ago was fueled by a 348 BABIP, which is unlikely to be repeated. Also at risk is the 99 RS from a season ago. 2022 BABIP: 0.348(0.051)| Contact Rate: 72%(-1%)| xBA: 0.257(-0.020)| xSLG: 0.461(0.014)| HR Distance: 407ft(5)| HR Max BBS: 109.6()| HardHit%: 46.3%(3.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.9)| Elevation%: 15.7(1.6)| Barrels%: 10.8%(-0.6%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.27(-0.04)| ISO: 17.0%(-3.1%)

Oneil Cruz The 23-year-old rookie shortstop produced 17 home runs, 54 RBIs, and a .220 ISO. He still needs to harness that power, as evidenced by his .233 average and whopping 35% strikeout rate, but he's a five-tool stud with all the skills to be a superstar for years to come. He's already started making more consistent contact and is batting .294 over his last 21 games, finishing his rookie campaign on a high note. The plate discipline and pitch recognition definitely need some work, but those are things that should improve with time as he gains more experience. It will be exciting to see what Cruz can do in a full season next year after being held down until late June in 2022, as the sky's the limit for this former top prospect. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.317(-0.183)| Contact Rate: 66%(20%)| xBA: 0.223(-0.010)| xSLG: 0.410(-0.040)| HR Distance: 411ft(3)| HR Max BBS: 122.4()| HardHit%: 46.1%(-33.9%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-8.6)| Elevation%: 8.3(3.7)| Barrels%: 15.5%(-24.5%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-76%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-1.6)| EYE: 0.22(0.22)| ISO: 21.7%(-11.7%)

Jeremy Pena The 25-year-old rookie, finished his first season strong with five long balls, 15 RBIs, 17 runs, and a .280 batting average over his last 21 games. It's an impressive turnaround following a brutal slump from late July to early September, showing how hot and cold rookies can be as they work through their growing pains. While he was very streaky in 2022, Pena still posted solid overall numbers with 22 dingers, 20 doubles, 11 steals, a .253 average, and a .715 OPS. His 22:135 BB/K ratio could definitely use some work, so if he improves his plate discipline he may become more consistent and post even better numbers going forward. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.298(0.298)| Contact Rate: 71%(71%)| xBA: 0.248(-0.005)| xSLG: 0.397(-0.029)| HR Distance: 396ft(396)| HR Max BBS: 110.5()| HardHit%: 36.7%(36.7%)| Avg Velocity: 88(88.1)| Elevation%: 8.7(8.7)| Barrels%: 9.7%(9.7%)| HR/FB%: 17%(17%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(1.4)| EYE: 0.16(-0.05)| ISO: 17.3%(17.3%)

Gleyber Torres Torres put together a solid season in 2022 with 24 home runs 76 RB I73 runs scored and a 257 batting average this to go along with ten stolen bases and 15 attempts what I really like about Torres is that his power numbers were underrepresented with only a 13% home runner flyball rate which does not correspond with a 45% hard hit rate and 90.4 mph below on balls hit in play this 13% home runner flyball rate could have easily been 16 to 17% which could mean a jump in home runs in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.295(-0.019)| Contact Rate: 75%(-1%)| xBA: 0.244(-0.013)| xSLG: 0.441(-0.010)| HR Distance: 383ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 45.3%(9.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(3.3)| Elevation%: 17.5(3.3)| Barrels%: 10.7%(2.9%)| HR/FB%: 13%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.4)| EYE: 0.30(-0.18)| ISO: 19.4%(8.7%)

Trea Turner Turner was once again a fantasy superstar last season, hitting .298 with 21 HR's, 101 runs, and the 27 steals. His xBA is 21 points below his actual BA and his xSLG is 31 points above his actual SLG, but Turner has outperformed his peripherals nearly every year of his career, so that shouldn't be much of a concern. The 100 RBIs are going to be difficult to replicate from the #2 slot, but his HR/FB rate of only 11% has considerable upside. 2022 BABIP: 0.342(-0.020)| Contact Rate: 75%(-4%)| xBA: 0.276(-0.022)| xSLG: 0.432(-0.034)| HR Distance: 402ft(-4)| HR Max BBS: 112.5()| HardHit%: 41.6%(-4.6%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.7)| Elevation%: 10.2(-1.2)| Barrels%: 7.6%(0.2%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-6%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(-0.1)| EYE: 0.34(-0.03)| ISO: 16.8%(-4.0%)

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Preseason Prep

Mar 14, 2023

Anthony A. Perri @Anthony_Perri

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, and can be heard on their nationally broadcast SiriusXM (ch87) Fantistics Sports Radio Show. Anthony has an MBA and worked as a quantitative analyst within the investment industry from 1986-1999. Transplanted from New York (still a Mets and Giants Fan), he currently lives in Arizona with his wife Mary , daughter Hannah, and son Adam. Having won a "trophy room" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 25 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.